mesoscale discussion number 1

Derek Weston

EF5
Joined
Dec 25, 2006
Messages
641
Location
Iowa City, Iowa
And it so it begins anew in 2010.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0001.html

Good luck in 2010, everyone. Can't wait.

January is always the toughest. Cold and nothing. By February you may or may not get a bite or two -- but you can almost taste what is about to come. Winter also starts relinquishing its icy grip.

March ushers in spring and with it thunder and lightning -- plus a few interesting setups most of the time. Perhaps the most mentally refreshing month of the year as winter finally subsides and green starts reappearing. Air is filled with life again.

April, May, June? No explanation needed.
 
I second that! Last February brought a few chases. I remember last February 10th, 2009 I chased the Oklahoma event and scored some nice structure in the Pawhuska area. Tornadoes were reported in and around OKC that day, and that was the day of the lone Grove, Ardmore tornado. It is an El NIno year so you never know. . .we may get that freak January thaw event towards the end of the month. The only problem I found while chasing prior to April is the lack of daylight, more pressure on pinpointing a perfect forecast and being at ground zero upon initiation. This season, I think I will wait til April to start my season. The only reason I will chase prior to April would be a perfect chase scenario within 2 hr drive of home. The days are getting longer and my patience is wearing thin. MD #1 kicks off a long season of MD's, Watches, Warnings, PDS's, etc, etc, etc,. Best of luck to everyone this season!!!!
 
Matt Gingery said:
The only problem I found while chasing prior to April is the lack of daylight, more pressure on pinpointing a perfect forecast and being at ground zero upon initiation. This season, I think I will wait til April to start my season. The only reason I will chase prior to April would be a perfect chase scenario within 2 hr drive of home.
Click to expand...

I've learned not to throw out a setup because of the time of year. This latest chase case is a prime example. I know some didn't go for the March 28, 2007 setup because it was in March and there were some questions about the storm mode. The models didn't have a very impressive 500mb/850mb crossover and the mean flow paralleled the dryline, so there was some question whether we would get discrete supercells or a training line. The event wound up exceeding most people's expectations. Despite this, there was still a sharp dryline with a strong shear/instability combo. Rich Thompson talked about it in his presentation at last year's Chasercon as an event that, in hindsight, could have been a high risk event. A good setup is a good setup regardless of the time of year, and if you have the time and money why not go for it?
 
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Skip Talbot said:
I've learned not to throw out a setup because of the time of year. This latest chase case is a prime example. I know some didn't go for the March 28, 2007 because it was a March setup and there were some questions about the storm mode. The models didn't have a very impressive 500mb/850mb crossover and the mean flow paralleled the dryline, so there was some question whether we would get discrete supercells or a training line. The event wound up exceeding most people's expectations. Despite, there was still a sharp dryline with a strong shear/instability combo forecasted. Rich Thompson talked about it in his presentation at last year's Chasercon as an event that, in hindsight, could have been a High risk event. A good setup is a good setup regardless of the time of year, and if you have the time and money why not go for it?
Click to expand...
Agreed wholeheartedly Skip.

Do I really need to name drop and throw out March 13, 1990? Or the aforementioned March 28, 2007? Or even March 12, 2006? If the setup is there, you chase it. Doesn't matter what time of year it is. If you got the time and money, no sense in ever limiting your 'chase season'. I even saw an excellent Supercell in August last year. Plus there's the whole daylight savings time comes earlier than it used to, which gives us an extra hour to chase, remember guys? ;) :p

Edit: I almost forgot -- Bring on 2010!
 
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Derek Weston said:
And it so it begins anew in 2010.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0001.html

Good luck in 2010, everyone. Can't wait.

January is always the toughest. Cold and nothing. By February you may or may not get a bite or two -- but you can almost taste what is about to come. Winter also starts relinquishing its icy grip.

March ushers in spring and with it thunder and lightning -- plus a few interesting setups most of the time. Perhaps the most mentally refreshing month of the year as winter finally subsides and green starts reappearing. Air is filled with life again.

April, May, June? No explanation needed.
Click to expand...

Personally, I'm waiting for the first MD with a red bubble instead of a pink one ;)

My hopes are up for a decent spring in eastern KS. We've had snow cover for ten days now and have barely been above freezing. Two measurable snows with three and four in the forecast. It's not scientific, but as long as I've lived here the crappier the winter the better the spring!
 
There is just to many dates to name where tornadoes occured durring the winter months and the late fall and early spring time. I just don't think that will happen any time soon. We need warmer weather and the way this winter is going it looks to stay cold for long time. Even Florida is getting in on this cold weather.
 
Yeah, January is pretty weak, but some may luck out. I lucked out in 2002 on this date capturing the first tornado of that year in Homestead, Florida. I actually got pretty close...but didn't even know it. There was no visibility of the actual tornado as it was heavily wrapped in precip. However I did notice for a brief few seconds a quick change in wind direction. I do have video and photos of the storm (video of the winds, photos of the damage) but haven't done anything with it. Maybe a good time to go find that tape (if I even labeled it:( )

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/020102_rpts.html
 
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I've had some great winter chases. March 12, 2006. February 24, 2007. January 7, 2008. I agree--a setup is a setup. I might not prioritize an early season chase just because, as has been pointed out, the sun sets pretty early. But I won't automatically write one off, either. Tornadoes don't consult the calendar.
 
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We had a active Feb. last year ( Lone Grove EF-4 ) . I believe a good setup can come anytime of the year , it is just a little harder to get a good setup in the winter .
 
In 2008 I started my chasing season in March! If Feb has a good setup maybe I will go for it. But I usually wait for April to come around before I really start chasing anthing. I just want a nice thaw as it will be below freezing for a long time here in Kansas with this arctic air in place.
 
Skip Talbot said:
I've learned not to throw out a setup because of the time of year. This latest chase case is a prime example. I know some didn't go for the March 28, 2007 setup because it was in March and there were some questions about the storm mode. The models didn't have a very impressive 500mb/850mb crossover and the mean flow paralleled the dryline, so there was some question whether we would get discrete supercells or a training line. The event wound up exceeding most people's expectations. Despite this, there was still a sharp dryline with a strong shear/instability combo. Rich Thompson talked about it in his presentation at last year's Chasercon as an event that, in hindsight, could have been a high risk event. A good setup is a good setup regardless of the time of year, and if you have the time and money why not go for it?
Click to expand...

It's funny that Skip mentions this date as I chose to chase the 3-28-07 event as well. In fact, I believe that Skip was parked right next to me (per his profile pic)
No question that the models, most particularly the RUC painted a line event that paralleled the dryline/pacific front. However I decided to play the event anyways due to the strong shear and because I had a hunch that storms would pull of the line and go tornadic (WRF) looked very resonable to me and what a day/evening it was. Got the first tornado near Sharon Springs and then 2 more south of Goodland. Just east of Goodland near Edison, the show was on.....then of course having the Bird City F-3 wedge on the ground and at the same time another strong tornado to the northwest of Goodland behind the dryline and being able to see/film both of them!!!
If a good set up happens, it does not matter if it's March or Jan (Monett Mo) I am going to try and be there. why pass it up???
 
Do you guys remember the mesoscale discussion SPC issued for the Super Tuesday Outbreak 2008 right before it began? If I remember right, it had very strong wording.
 
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