MCS in Mississippi

[Michael Wilkinson]

I’m watching what’s been happening in Mississippi today. I’d like to know how to tell if there were going to be discreet supercells today or a line of storms resembling a squall line. It’s turned out to be a mess of storms. The winds appear to be turning with height, but are they just not turning enough? Or, are there other indicators I’m missing?

 

[Jeff House]

I think 700 mb could have been better for two reasons. Temps were a little warm up there. Also some of the afternoon soundings showed veer back veer, with the ugly kink near 700 mph. Soundings were special releases from UAH SWIRLL (U. Alabama Huntsville) and VORTEX-SE. Looks like that HRRR forecast sounding also shows the issues.

NAM (3k CAM) also hinted at the mess; however, it missed action farther east on the pre-frontal trough. Using high-res model reflectivity forecasts is kind of like using a cheat sheet, but certainly valuable after making one's own forecast. Agreement add confidence. Disagreement requires a second look.

ARW (another WRF version) picked up on pre-frontal trough action farther east. HRRR did so occasionally. However most CAMs showed the overall messy nature of the event.

PS. Also see the What Happened 2/23 thread. Good answers there on the broader set-up.