Mark Your Calendars - 7 Hurricanes in '08

[Mike Peregrine]

Why do they still bother to do this? In December ... the year before ... please, someone explain the point.

I'm predicting 75 tornadoes in '08, 1 EF 5, 2 EF 4, 23 EF 3, and the rest EF 2 or below. I know where they are going to be too (but not telling).

 

[Mark Sudduth]

They claim it is curiosity from the public and that they are satisfying this curiosity by releasing forecasts over and over again throughout the year- and the hurricane season.

See a need, fill a need. CSU fills that need, apparently.

 

[Terry Tyler]

Why do they still bother to do this?

please, someone explain the point.

well, they have to...

otherwise, they would look like some jack asses...even sometimes, if your wrong, and you know your wrong...your ego and position of power is more important, and you will defend that opinion to the most extreme even if it is wrong...

i believe this is the case here...everyone knows there is no model that goes out that far, and even in that case...you would still just be making an educated guess...look at the climatology of atlantic basin hurricanes...make a minor assessment...thats your 2008 hurricane forecast...

if they came out now and said they messed up then what would the world think about the NHC?

there gonna be right...one of these years, then they can brag and say they told you so...

im with mike though...im making a forecast...

im betting that the US is going to get more then 1400 tornadoes in 2008, but less then 2000...

who wants to make bets?

 

[rdale]

well, they have to...

otherwise, they would look like some jack asses...

Not sure I understand what you are saying... They HAVE to make a forecast for next season when it's nearly a year away? I completely disagree.

if they came out now and said they messed up then what would the world think about the NHC?

Who messed up? They made a foreacst for next year - a little early to say they blew it

And NHC has NOTHING to do with these forecasts, so what would the world think about NHC?

 

[Terry Tyler]

They HAVE to make a forecast for next season

theres no disputing the fact that they need to make one...im only questioning the methodology they use to get those numbers...

Who messed up? They made a foreacst for next year - a little early to say they blew it

well, they blew it the past two years...if i knew they were going to mess up or get it right, then i wouldent be having this conversation...

again, im just disputing how accurate these numbers really are, and why the last two years did not make it up to their standards...

And NHC has NOTHING to do with these forecasts, so what would the world think about NHC?

the NHC isnt incharge of issuing the seasonal hurricane outlooks?

if im wrong on that one, then i guess i stand corrected...either way, replace NHC with whatever other agency is incharge of issuing them...