Long Range Forcasting

[Mark Blue]

The EPS (ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System) that runs out to 360 hours and the new monthly forecast system are great tools, if you have access.

Who typically has access to the EPS that you mentioned? Is it impossible for a 'regular guy' to gain access to this data?

 

[Jesse Risley]

Who typically has access to the EPS that you mentioned? Is it impossible for a 'regular guy' to gain access to this data?

As far as I know, no. I get it via subscription through Accuweather.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Thanks for that info on the EPS, Jesse. My question is one I can probably answer for myself by checking Accuweather, but for the sake of getting the information onto this thread, how much does your subscription cost you? I'm curious how affordable it is.

As for the GFS, that poor old model has taken a lot of bashing while the Euro is widely acknowledged to outperform the American models hands-down. I'd use the Euro exclusively for long-range except for the obvious, which is that the information it offers for free is limited, and from what I understand, getting access to the full suite is cost-prohibitive for the average Joe. So it's great if you work in a WFO or some other place that gives you the keys to the Rolls Royce, but for most of us, love it or hate it, the GFS is still what we've got to work with, plus such freebies as the ECMWF offers.

There's plenty I don't know about this topic of long-range models, though, and I'm open to being taught. Now that Jesse's got my curiosity piqued, I'm going look into the EPS on Accuweather and see what it's got to offer.

 

[Terrence Cook]

Does the accuweather subscription allow full access to the ECMWF or restricted?

 

[Jesse Risley]

The AccuWeather Pro subscription offers full access to ECMWF data, though it is a hefty $24.95/month or $249.95/year. Truthfully, you're probably largely paying for full access to the Euro, as most of the rest of the model data, though extensive, is available for free elsewhere (e.g., NOGAPS, RAP, NAM, GFS, GEM, JMA, etc.).

 

[Bob Hartig]

Thanks again, Jesse. I'll have to weigh that against my skin-thin budget. Twenty-five bucks a month for the full suite of ECMWF isn't bad for a few months of peak season. And yeah, I'm sure that's what the money is really paying for--the Euro. I see that AccuWeather offers a month's free trial. Might just do that.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Though not the full suite of data available in AWIPS, Wunderground.com does offer numerous ECMWF fields at 3-hour increments out to 7.5 days:

http://www.wunderground.com/wunderm...&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

This, combined with the daily fields plotted for days 8-10 on InstantWeatherMaps.com, are enough to keep me happy without pulling out my credit card. The ECMWF ensemble mean is also available for free now on their official site.

 

[ericjkelly]

Thanks for all the help! I really do appreciate it! Since I am not a full time chaser, I dont see myself moving anytime soon Thanks though Terrance

 

[JamesCaruso]

Although it is true that the big systems are often forecast well in advance by the models and are not likely to pop up without notice within a one to three or even five day window, there are plenty of smaller scale setups that can emerge unannounced in the short term. In the absence of a death ridge, given enough moisture and decent flow typical of May, there can be ample chase opportunities even with no big systems on the horizon.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD