Kansas Turnpike Authority to change weather alert system

I'm guessing someone in government made a deal and didn't realize the ramifications... It's one thing for private sector to provide data to businesses or other entities. Totally another to provide them to the public at large. This is an embarrassment to the weather enterprise to see AccuWeather doing this.
 
I'll just go ahead and say it: I seriously doubt scientific/forecast accuracy was the priority that drove this maneuver. Sad state of affairs if I'm right.
 
The fact that they relied on AccuWeather makes me laugh, I was in a tornado warning a while back and I got my alert notification on my phone the night after at 3am, never using AccuWeather again.
 
So what is the change exactly? They will verify all of AccuWeather's hypecasts with NWS? Why the hell wouldn't KTA do this in the first place if they are a government entity? This is likely only one of a long line of confusions/mishaps that will occur because of private weather forecasts. Regardless, I remember seeing a hook on this storm which eventually went directly over my house while I was chasing in southeast Kansas, but gate to gate rotation was never very strong as you can clearly see in the above graphic.
 
Nothing surprises me when it comes to Kansas anymore. That's my go-to reason for anything related to that state. It's Kansas!
 
Careful making broad stroke statements about private weather forecasts. There is a time and a place for them. That said, I'm not sure a company that realizes more than 50% of its income from advertising sales is the right place to seek life and asset saving weather information. Just my opinion though and I may be slightly biased.


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I have seen that part of AccuWeather's business... the group that makes private forecasts/warnings/etc. They're separate from the groups that do all of the public-side forecasts, web content, etc. Clients pay them for a dedicated service in which their assets and other concerns are monitored 24/7 by qualified mets.

At WeatherBug, we have a similar group of mets who monitor the weather for private clients. We don't issue our own tornado warnings and the like, but we do provide updates on the situation if an update is needed. We also have something called Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts, which come from an automated warning system based on a well-tuned algorithm. However, none of what we do is meant to be a copy of or replacement of NWS warnings.

While the corporate part of the private business is looking at the bottom line, trust me when I say that every meteorologist tries their best and uses their best judgement when making forecasts for private clients, whether it be issuing a tornado warning or whatever. The forecasters see people and property in danger and work to provide the best information possible. The dollar signs associated with it can't even be seen on the horizon.

tl;dr Don't confuse the company's goals with the forecaster's drive and ambition. Money is good. Having a good forecast is much, much better.
 
Mark - that may be the case for your company, but that is not the case for Mike Smith's. He's in it for the dollars (have you read his book? :) ) It should be fairly obvious that private alerts are fine - but need to stay private. Every time one of his clients alerts people for tornadoes that aren't really there and don't connect to a NWS warning, bad things happen. This is not the first time this debacle has occurred.
 
rdale said:
Mark - that may be the case for your company, but that is not the case for Mike Smith's. He's in it for the dollars (have you read his book? :) ) It should be fairly obvious that private alerts are fine - but need to stay private. Every time one of his clients alerts people for tornadoes that aren't really there and don't connect to a NWS warning, bad things happen. This is not the first time this debacle has occurred.
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Last time I checked, Mike Smith wasn't the one sitting at the desk making the on-the-spot forecast decisions. Again, don't confuse the corporate motivation ($) with the forecaster's motivation (good forecasts).

Also just wanted to clarify (this isn't in response to you specifically)... I have no opinion on them issuing their own warnings. They will never be 100% accurate, just as the NWS isn't 100% accurate. I've seen cases where they issue a tornado warning and the NWS doesn't when a tornado has occurred. And obviously the opposite has happened as well. It's up to whatever entity to decide if AccuWeather's services are good and worth the additional cost.

I would agree that a private forecast should stay private, though. Disseminating paid-for information to the general public isn't the norm, anyway.
 
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I'm not confusing them at all - just knowing based on his philosophy that his error is on the side of money, not caution. And I strongly encourage private sector to issue their own warnings - they just need to stay private. If KTA wants to move resources around based on the AW warning - more power to them. I think that's a great call. Telling the public there's a tornado coming and to take shelter is not... They posted a followup article that does nothing to clear up the situation - just notes that we're all partners in this together for whatever that's worth.
 
rdale said:
I'm not confusing them at all - just knowing based on his philosophy that his error is on the side of money, not caution. And I strongly encourage private sector to issue their own warnings...
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Glad you support private sector B2B warnings. Some clients criteria differ from NWS criteria. Others have specific needs or wish to omit hazards that do not impact their biz. Shout out to all the private companies out there!

Do you know Mike Smith? Have you visited the Wichita branch of the Company?

Mike is not in it just for money. Weather is his passion. Best business plan is something you love, have the skills to perform, and can monetize. His book Warnings ends cheer-leading not the private sector, but the NWS!

Meteorologists at the Company are held to strict verification. While missing warnings is not tolerated, they do not over-warn. Hazard must be acute and within a certain range per business criteria. Wichita branch is autonomous and does not hype. I am proud to have started my career there for several years. No I'm not biased; I'm informed about the Company.
 
I met him and we've talked extensively over the years. He may have some good points somewhere in some of his books - but his way of discussing things turns far too many people off. His passion for weather is blinded by his disregard for anyone who doesn't agree with him or his methods.
 
KTA officials are on this week's Weatherbrains. Basically they said they aren't concerned about confusion with the public on the AccuWeather tornado warnings ("better safe than sorry") - their fix will be to add "AES" to the beginning of tweets if the Tornado Warning is from AccuWeather and not from the NWS.

http://weatherbrains.com/weatherbrains/?p=5655

In addition, per KTA, there was no tornado logged, but AccuWeather confirmed that a tornado did touch down.
 
They stepped it up a notch last night, issuing two "AES Tornado Warnings" for Topeka. That didn't go over well... They were called out for being irresponsible on-air by one TV station (at least) and online by two. And the NWS even had to tweet out that it was not a NWS warning.

#GivingTheBirdToTheWeatherReadyNation
 
Good thing he included a link to his book - I had no idea he was an author. Then again, since he was named THE weather expert in the entire world, what can't he do?
 
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