Ida

[Jason Harris]

Just rain for Central America or straight up into the gulf? And then . . . ?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Ida know, do you?

Jeff Masters has a blog on it:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1370

 

[Rich Long]

Given it's current location I doubt it's any threat to the US. Water temps have been cooling in the Gulf and in order for it to move north it will have to interact with mountainous land quite heavily which will rip it apart.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Well this thing seems to be rappidly intensefying. Not only has it become a named storm (Tropical Storm Ida) it has been gusting up to 65mph prompting the NHC to issue a hurricane watch along the eastern coasts of Nicaragua.

Ida know about you but this storm certainly has peaked my interests as a sort of last ditch effort for anything that may effect American soil. The models hint at it surviving the mountainous trek over land and reemerging in the Caribbean as a T.D. before once again gaining strength to become a T.S as it heads for the Yucatan Channel or the Yucatan Peninsula. If it can stay a bit east and pass through the channel then I would keep an eye out on this storm. It's a shame the gulf is cooling down.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I'm NOT holding my breath ... Nicaraguans have costed me many failed chase-prospects in the past - Land-wise, that is!

If, and only if, it clears the mountains, re-emerges off Honduras, then maybe I'll be a bit more excited. That should not happen until Friday-Saturday time frame, with the storm over land all that time - Not good.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Tally ho> outlier or just plain liar?

The models have lied to us since May ;-)

Have model ... Will fool = Wishcasters!!

 

[Bart_Comstock]

The GFDL's pants are on fire. It has the storm magically staying out at sea as it passes around the horn of Honduras and then moves north. It is also the only model to show it becoming a hurricane let alone a cat 5. The other models show it either as becoming a TS after crossing the Yucatan and then either hitting Mexico or the gulf coast or just plan fizzling out even before reemerging into the sea.

I won't even consider holding my breath until this thing is in the gulf and is gaining strength.

 

[Jared Thompson]

...IDA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IDA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A
HURRICANE.

Will be intresting to see if it does move into the gulf like the NHC forcasts.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Land Fall Potential for Ida

I did a bit of research since it looks like IDA will be potentially making two landfalls on the storm track, projected by the National Hurricane Center.

It's currently making landfall in Nicaragua with 75 mph winds. It is forecasted to track out to sea as a TS, then nick the tip of Hondoruas as it passes into the Gulf of Mexico.

I tend to agree with the other posts that it may not upgrade back to hurricane status due to the cooler Gulf waters. The current jet stream setup for the SE US looks like the TS or whatever remains will get pushed toward Florida.

My research also indicated that Hurricane Faye holds the record for four landfalls in the state of Florida in 2008!

 

[mrobinett]

The current jet stream setup for the SE US looks like the TS or whatever remains will get pushed toward Florida.

We're keeping an eye on it here in Florida...

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Ida is a tropical depression in response to wind drag with the Central American terrain as well as being cut off from any oceanic heat content.

The system, however, has MISSED the higher terrain over Nicaragua and is entering the coastal plains and should re-emerge over the Caribbean sea in 12-18 hours.

Re-intensification is likely (only if Ida survives the current land crossing) once over the W Caribbean and east of the Yucatan, but most likely, not the strengthening we had earlier before the first landfall.

Right now, a 50 to 55 MPH tropical storm may look likely passing the Yucatan to the east, then bending to the Northeast towards Florida by Monday (11-9) or so.

 

[Justin Pullin]

My research also indicated that Hurricane Faye holds the record for four landfalls in the state of Florida in 2008!

Actually, Faye was only a tropical storm when it made landfall. It did however gain a rather impressive eye feature as it was over land, but never did officially become a hurricane.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Corrected!!

Actually, Faye was only a tropical storm when it made landfall. It did however gain a rather impressive eye feature as it was over land, but never did officially become a hurricane.

I stand corrected. I only saw the name "Faye" in a passing reference and assumed it was a hurricane.

 

[Justin Pullin]

I stand corrected. I only saw the name "Faye" in a passing reference and assumed it was a hurricane.

We are actually both wrong as far as the spelling goes. I looked in my old Meteorology Today book and it was spelled Fay...

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Putting "Faye" (or "Fay") in 2008 aside ... TS Ida is back over water and over warm waters, and is back to TS status.

Movement is to the north, and no more land sould be in it's way ... It will enter the SE Gulf of Mexico with some more strengthening (before it feels the shearing effects from a low pressure trough).

 

[Morgan Palmer]

I concur with earlier comment about it achieving hurricane status, but only barely IMO.

As far as Fay goes, when that came in, we were definitely monitoring intensification *over land* in the hours after landfall. The "land" inland of Cape Romano, where Fay made landfall is as much water than land. Plenty of water. One can make the argument that Fay really didn't "think" it had made landfall.