Howard Robinson
EF2
Anyone catch this? http://www.ottawacitizen.com/mobile/story.html?id=5847032
Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes
- Thread starter Howard Robinson
- Start date
rdale
EF5
The story is misleading... They aren't dropping them entirely, they are just not using numbers in the December outlook (just words.) The other outlooks will still have numbers.
William Monfredo
EF3
...since it's December, and there's been fewer posts (see other thread), I'll post...
and I'm not sure how much of this has been covered previously, but...
William Gray didn't find much skill when forecasting next year's tropical-event frequency this early in December, according to the piece. Later forecasts, of course, would have the advantage of waiting to see how El Nino plays out in the winter and benefit from a later and more accurate forecasting of that "teleconnection" from the Pacific. (The ENSO variable is used because warm events tend to produce adverse westerly wind-shear in the North Atlantic.)
I saw him speak at Univ. of MS in Oxford. He's got decade after decade of experience, and I respect him for his insights into natural climate-variability. However, as with tornadoes, it's not THAT important as to the exact number of hurricanes IMO; it's where, & whether or not they affect you, and the magnitude, too. I've seen a private wx-forecasting firm in PA partition the US coastline into several regions and then discuss where the high-probability "danger-zones" lie. I can't speak to the forecasting skill of that, but it's a step in the right direction.
and I'm not sure how much of this has been covered previously, but...
William Gray didn't find much skill when forecasting next year's tropical-event frequency this early in December, according to the piece. Later forecasts, of course, would have the advantage of waiting to see how El Nino plays out in the winter and benefit from a later and more accurate forecasting of that "teleconnection" from the Pacific. (The ENSO variable is used because warm events tend to produce adverse westerly wind-shear in the North Atlantic.)
I saw him speak at Univ. of MS in Oxford. He's got decade after decade of experience, and I respect him for his insights into natural climate-variability. However, as with tornadoes, it's not THAT important as to the exact number of hurricanes IMO; it's where, & whether or not they affect you, and the magnitude, too. I've seen a private wx-forecasting firm in PA partition the US coastline into several regions and then discuss where the high-probability "danger-zones" lie. I can't speak to the forecasting skill of that, but it's a step in the right direction.
rdale
EF5
Sometimes even if you know the right direction - it's not always a good idea to take a step.
Those have had no value.
Those have had no value.
Keith Wilson
EF2
I live on the Gulf Coast, but I don't pay much attention to the "pre-season" predictions. From my point of view, it is better to play the "wait and see" game. Even if they accurately predict a dozen major hurricanes it is pointless to get excited since every one of them could harmlessly churn up the central Atlantic. It's not apathy, it is being realistic.
Patterns can change drastically between now and hurricane season, and even during hurricane season. That is what I watch for.
Patterns can change drastically between now and hurricane season, and even during hurricane season. That is what I watch for.
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