Hurricane predictions miss the mark

[rdale]

http://www.miamiherald.com/top_stories/story/320606.html

"Why do they bother? And given the errors -- which can undermine faith in the entire hurricane warning system -- are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good?"

Very interesting article on the horrible predictions from NOAA & Gray the past few years, and some reasons future outlooks might need to be presented in a different manner...

 

[Jeff Miller]

http://www.miamiherald.com/top_stories/story/320606.html

"Why do they bother? And given the errors -- which can undermine faith in the entire hurricane warning system -- are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good?"

Very interesting article on the horrible predictions from NOAA & Gray the past few years, and some reasons future outlooks might need to be presented in a different manner...

This proves how very, very little we know and understand about tropical severe weather forecasting. The fact that using the tools that we have is simply not working means we don't have the right understanding - or the right tools - or both.

I will absolutely admit I pay no attention to these forecasts now - because our understanding and forecasts aren't working. In my opinion, forecasters need to really reevaluate forecasting techniques before they can do long term tropical forecasting with any accuracy.

 

[Bob Schafer]

The media is always eager to find and publish any story that will scare people, and SOMEBODY is always going to be willing to predict death and destruction to get him or herself mentioned in the media. Maybe it won't be someone associated with the NOAA, but someone.

So, don't expect to stop seeing dire predictions about storms anytime soon.

 

[rdale]

My bet is that if NOAA and Gray stopped giving out seasonal forecasts - the media would not report them... When NOAA uses NHC to give their forecast, they do that for a reason. They WANT the media coverage.

 

[Craig Maire II]

I bet the folks who live in Florida, the Carolinas and in the gulf coast areas are happy that the hurricane predictions "missed the mark" and that the major hurricanes did not develop and strike their areas

 

[Jerry Prsha]

http://www.miamiherald.com/top_stories/story/320606.html

"Why do they bother? And given the errors -- which can undermine faith in the entire hurricane warning system -- are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good?"

Very interesting article on the horrible predictions from NOAA & Gray the past few years, and some reasons future outlooks might need to be presented in a different manner...

I read a story about this yesterday and pondered....

They predicted 17 named storms and we actually had 14. Geez... Are we holding them that tightly to their forecast? That was pretty darn close in my humble opinion....

 

[rdale]

Named storms wasn't the only criteria, they predicted a very active season and it was normal (if not below normal when you take out the "named" storms that should not have been named, let alone considered "storms" :> )

 

[Andy Mayhew]

It's partly a matter of perspective though. I suspect if Dean and Felix had made landfall on the other side of the Gulf we might well be thinking very differently about what sort of season it was?

 

[rdale]

It might be more memorable - but it wouldn't change the issue of bad seasonal forecasts...

 

[Darin Brunin]

Now lawsuits are being threatened out of it because of the loss of tourism caused by the forecasts.

http://www.local6.com/news/14730306/detail.html

 

[Mark Sudduth]

CSU forecasts, etc.

And, what about the 2005 seasonal forecasts? All of them were way off the mark- even the August update. They underforecast the 2005 season and it turned out to be the most destructive in U.S. history. Where were the people filing lawsuits then? After all, the forecasts in 2005 did not call for the amount of truly devastating and unprecedented hurricanes such as we saw with Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma. I think the 2005 seasonal forecasts from all agencies who were issuing them should be called in to question- more so than missing the forecasts on the low side in 2006 and 2007.

Interesting too that no one has brought up Accuweather as of yet either. Their predictions did not come to pass either- not even close- just like in 2006. It cannot be painted over to look good- CSU, NOAA and Accuweather all had very bad seasonal forecasts in 2005, 2006 and 2007. We get our first glimpse of what CSU predicts for 2008 in about a week. You just know the press is salivating over this press release. Not matter what it says, in my opinion, it cannot be taken seriously. I know I won't. We'll know how 2008 turns out at about this time next year...that much I can promise you.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Now lawsuits are being threatened out of it because of the loss of tourism caused by the forecasts.

http://www.local6.com/news/14730306/detail.html

The day will come when you must sign a release of liability form in order to see the forecasts.

First people cry about not getting enough warning, now they cry about getting over warned and nothing happens. But it does make you wonder why the computer models over forecast everything these days.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel has a nice blog entry on this topic. In my opinion, it's very balanced and seems very level-headed. The gist of his blog:

As such, I'm also free to publicly yearn for the day that those who produce seasonal hurricane outlooks don't accompany such issuances with big press release splashes, and hope that in turn every newspaper and website and radio station and TV outlet will take a deep breath, and recognize the severe limitations of the current state of the science in this regard, and think twice about giving those predictions the kind of headline-grabbing attention that's currently being provided to them. And -- since I know the old saying about people in glass houses -- yes, it's only fair that I also say I wish that included The Weather Channel.

You can read the rest of his blog here: USELESS

In contrast, Mike Bettes has a blog entry that takes a much different tone:

I know I'm getting a little angry here, but legitimate researchers/forecasters like the fine teams at Colorado State, The Weather Research Center, and The Tropical Prediction Center should not be putting out forecasts, especially when they are so consistently wrong. If the forecast calls for a high number of storms, then the public is alarmed unnecessarily. If the forecast calls for a low number of storms, then the public lets its guard down. Either way you lose.

As I think I noted in my first post in this thread, I agree much more with Ostro than Bettes. It's not so much the forecasts themselves as it is how the forecasts are relayed to the public. The NOAA and CSU forecasts can explicitly state their uncertainty all they want, but it seems that the uncertainty is lost in relaying to the public via the media. This is not a direct shot at ALL media, since different companies/channels/sites handle it differently. Personally, I don't see any problem in making an attempt to forecast seasonal tropical cyclone activity, since, if I recall the numbers correctly, they have shown SOME skill (and SOME is better than none as long as people respond correctly). Of course, it wouldn't hurt of some of the forecasts showed less precision (i.e. show a range of number rather than a single number). At any rate, I never thought I'd be the one to point out Weather Channel blogs, but I think Stu's is worth the time to read (it's rather long, but well-put). The harm occurs when any relatively high FAR yields progressive laziness and the typical "pff, we've seen this before and nothing happened" attitude.

 

[Eric Treece]

I think it might be fun if next hurricane season we come up with our own STORMTRACK Hurricane Prediction and we have a thread and see how we match up. Winner gets say, a Storms of 2008 DVD or something to make it fun. Lord knows any one of us can pull numbers out of a hat. I mean really.......regardless of El Nino, or La Nina or whatever, it is the weather, and to make those kinds of predictions that far out is crazy. IT IS WEATHER and it is CONSTANTLY CHANGING. Frankly I get sick and tired of seeing The Weather Channel hype things up in the middle of May and putting something such as severe weather happening now completely on the back burner. Why do I even watch TWC? I don't know?? Maybe cause I am happy B****ing about something and they are an easy target. Although I do like some of that cool jazz music that they play on the Local on the 8's. Maybe that is why I watch?? I don't know.............how many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop? The world may never know............