I guess I could have went into much greater detailed with respect to my 'burned' statement after Hurricane Paloma in Nov. 2008. I didn't want to drag out a long post with issues most people here who visit these types of forums are already familiar with. I'll try to explain the situation with much more detail this time (Ok maybe too much detail). Here's a few things I've personally noticed over the years with respect to hurricane preparation...
When it comes to hurricane preparation, most of the population living in a region susceptible to the impacts of a landfalling hurricane take a passive approach. For one, most people don't make any of the necessary preparations before hurricane season begins. Nine times out of ten (just a guesstimate), most people will wait until the local TV stations begin giving an approaching storm extensive coverage before they rush out and begin making any type of preparations. In addition, most people will sit back and wait on what the local authorities are saying about the hurricane on the local news channels in order to decide what type of actions they will take regarding the approaching storm. Meaning these people will make no attempt to find out what the NHC is saying about the storm. They will not find out what the NHC and local NWS advisories, watches, and warnings will mean to them and what impacts those warnings will have for their area. They will not try to get familar with some of the products offered by the NHC, the NWS, NOAA, and/or any other helpful online weather websites. Nor will they even take the time to learn anything about the simple basics of a hurricane period. In other words, most people depend upon what the local televison stations are saying or what their friends and family are saying about the storm. This is pretty much it when it comes to their storm preparation. Bottomline, most people limit their source for information regarding an approaching hurricane exclusively to the local news media, without putting forth an effort to educate themselves accordingly. (Let me emphasize there is absolutely nothing wrong with tuning in to local media coverage of an approaching storm. And I would highly recommend it.) The ironic part about some of these people is that even when they are warned accordingly, they still don't take the appropriate actions necessary, but that's a whole totally different topic.
Now can one get away with this type of approach to hurricane preparation? I guess technically they can. Am I over-generalizing people in hurricane impact zones? May-be. The only problem with this passive approach is that sometimes local news media, local authorities, friends and family may not necessarily fully understand the importance of some of the things I just listed above. So though "the state of the science and forecast ability (or lack of) is quite well known", question is, has the local media conveyed this idea to their 'passive preparing public locals' with respect to an approaching hurricane and do some of these local officials even fully understand this concept themselves? Personally, Rich Horodner I agree with this statement regarding forecast ability. However, the only issue I have is since most people don't take the time to educate themselves regarding hurricane preparations and hurricane topics and resources in general, they will depend exclusively upon local media to obtain information regarding an approaching storm. Now if the local media and local officials haven't conveyed the fact that those hurricane forecasts of that approaching storm are not an exact science, then these exact same people will most likely not take into account any other possibilities. Thus might explain why some people get 'pissed' in the Florida Keys when a hurricane misses them. And it's just not the Keys, this happens everywhere. Which may explain why Mayor Nagin hesitated to order the mandatory evac before the approaching Katrina.
So in essence, what I eventually see happening one day is that a hurricane will be forecasted to strike a certain area with a forecasted intensity (with the usual disclaimers and margins for error issued by the NHC). The local media and authorities will respond accordingly. Then we have all of our people who use the 'passive' approach to hurricane preparation following suit and making plans accordingly. Unfortunately, this particular hurricane significantly intensifies unexpectedly before making landfall. All of our passive preparing population is totally taken offguard and now wants to know what went wrong with that intensity forecast.
In retrospect, I kinda saw this happen in South Florida with Hurricane Andrew, though this situation is not the best example of what I eventually see happening one day. After reading over most of the newspaper articles leading up to 1992's Hurricane Andrew, most of the population affected, which seemed to take the ill-advised, but most popular 'passive hurricane preparation approach', appeared to be caught off guard by a Category 5 landfalling hurricane. Andrew made landfall on a Monday morning. Most of the people appeared to make most if all not all of their preparations on that Saturday afternoon thru Sunday before the storm struck. It also appeared that most people began making their first hurricane preparations of the 1992 hurricane season that Saturday morning and afternoon, only after local news television stations began reporting just how much Andrew was intensifying. Many of the people who felt the full impacts of Andrew appeared to be taken totally offguard by the sheer ferocity of the storm. (On second thought, maybe this is just a bad example totally, because after reading through all of those pre-Andrew articles, even the NHC and everyone else appeared to be somewhat taken offguard by the intensity and widespread devastation of Hurricane Andrew.)
Let me make it clear I don't disagree with anything anyone has said thus far. I guess one of the main issues I see involving 'someone getting burned' is derived from a possible combination of an unexpected intensification by an approaching hurricane coupled with the 'passive hurricane preparation approach'. Many may argue that people don't have to be weather ethusiasts and geeks to prepare for a hurricane. I would agree this is true. And I guess one can successfully argue that this so-called 'passive approach' I've described above most times is sufficient in hurricane preparation. I will concede this point as well. One may also argue 'who has the time to be learning about hurricanes, NHC and NWS products, etc. I would answer anyone who lives in a region prone to the impacts of hurricanes. In addition, one may argue that the chances of a hurricane rapidly intensifying right before landfall is fairly low and not a real issue or threat. This also may be true as well to a certain degree.
I guess the real challenge is hurricane education. Everyone concerned needs to take the necessary time in order to find out what types of things they need to know when it comes to hurricane preparation and hurricanes in general. Thus, if we do eventually have a situation as I descibed above involving an intensifying hurricane, we may be able to avoid the 'burn factor'. From what I've observed over the years, this appears to be a very tall order.