Heed the warning

[bradjones]

Ok Mods I'm sorry if this does not belong here if not please move please don't kick me off for infraction. Why is the death toll so high in the outbreak area? I mean are people NOT paying attention? I used to think and this is the truth yesterday the coverage in that part country was better than it ever had been. It's sad because were people just used to the norm on weather coverage because that part of the country they are not used to the weather coverage and just ignored it all? Unlike here in the plains and Oklahoma in particular nothing I mean absolutely nothing sneaks up on us.granted the coverage at times is a bit overboard however it makes people more aware. Now before anyone blast me for this post I'm just wondering why people continue to die in these outbreaks? Is it just a lack of knowledge or just not paying attention? Of course yesterday was a sad exception because of magnitude. Sorry to everyone who lost loved ones.

 

[Jesse Risley]

I think part of this has to do with the fact that this is a very large outbreak of tornadoes, some of which were likely strong to violent, in a more densely populated region. Regardless of how well the warning system works, the odds of more casualties are going to increase when you have strong tornadoes impacting larger cities and metropolitan areas, or a greater areal region where there are more small towns within any given 100 square kilometers.

I think the event was well warned and adequately forewarned. Even with that aside, perhaps local culture is different? You're always going to have those who just assume it can't or won't happen to them. There is often a social science aspect to how people react to warnings, if they receive them, which is another matter.

Finally, when you have an outbreak with a large number of strong to violent tornadoes, you tend to see more deaths even when people heed the warnings and seek shelter somewhere reasonably safe, simply because of the extreme nature of destruction wrought on homes and buildings that take a direct hit from those extremely high-end winds. You start to see the top levels of many structures obliterated in some cases, lessening someone's chance of survival if they don't have a basement, and even sometimes deaths occurring in basements from walls collapsing or what's left of the house completely falling in. Granted, that stuff can happen in structures that get hit by weaker tornadoes, but we're talking incredible damage in the more extreme cases.

I don't have them in front of me, but I'm quite sure that the statistics have consistently shown that the stronger tornadoes are directly related to higher casualties. If there is any silver lining in this, I'm quite certain that the warnings yesterday did save many lives, even in light of the staggering death toll. If this were 1961, I'm sure it would probably be a much more horrific outcome.

 

[Bryce Stone]

The questions you ask have no easy, one-size-fits-all answer. The one thing I can say is that lack of awareness is probably not the primary underlying cause of the high fatality rate. The factors which contribute to a high-fatality event such as was seen yesterday are many and varied (storm speed, time of day, location, intensity of tornado/es, availabilty and quality of shelter, individual preparedness, building construction quality, etc.). Here's a thread which, although not directly related to what you're asking, may nevertheless provide some answers:

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?25811-Expanding-warning-times-for-tornadoes....

 

[John Vandehei]

Jesse sums it up pretty well. Also, Rodger Edwards posted an editorial/blog after the Oklahoma City tornado outbreak of '99. The reality is, if you're in the path of a large violent tornado, there are few structures that can guarantee your safety. About the only two options to be safe in such a situation is to be underground in some type of fortified shelter or bunker, or to move out of the way of the tornado if given enough time. However, the latter option in not safe for the average person. As stormchasers, most of whom have access to live radar and other information, moving out of the way can be a viable option for us. However, a member of the general public could be just as likely to inadvertently move toward the danger, or even avoid one tornado only to move into the path of another nearby tornado.

 

[Keith Hosman]

Something else that has not been mentioned yet was that Northern Alabama got hit twice yesterday, once in the morning, and once again in the afternoon/evening/night. The first round knocked out power to a large number of people in Northern Indiana. So I guess that could have been a factor. As hard as it is to believe, many people do not have NOAA All Hazard/Weather radios and reply only on tornado sirens or TV/broadcast radio for their weather alert/notification. So w/o power their TV/radio might not have been working. Also in rural areas with a lot of trees the sound of a warning siren doesn't carry very well.

This is why one of the most important things that can be done is public education on the importance of having a NOAA All Hazard/Weather radio. Midland makes a very nice radio that can be purchased for $40.00 How many families spend that much a month or more on alcohol, tobacco products, soda/junk food, and movie/game rentals? They could easily cut back on the junk for a month and spend money more wisely spent on something that could save their lives.

Another thing to consider is trailer/mobile home parks. Not much of a shelter can be found there. What I would LOVE to see is for every state county and city/town have legislation that requires trailer parks to have tornado shelters. We have been having that discussion here in my county about passing such legislation stating that before any new trailer park can be built they have to have a tornado shelter in their design, and in the same legislation before any existing trailer park can be expanded they have to build a shelter. Hell we have even gone as far as to find grants for our trailer parks to get shelters built at no cost to them but so far none of them have taken us up on the free shelters.

 

[Geoff Manikin]

I've read a number of witness accounts in various news articles of people saying that they were tracking the tornado headed their way on tv, but they then took shelter only when they heard a roar and debris started flying around outside. It amazes me that they weren't hunkered down way in advance, even knowing that a large, violent tornado was headed their way.

 

[Joshua Nall]

This is why one of the most important things that can be done is public education on the importance of having a NOAA All Hazard/Weather radio. Midland makes a very nice radio that can be purchased for $40.00 How many families spend that much a month or more on alcohol, tobacco products, soda/junk food, and movie/game rentals? They could easily cut back on the junk for a month and spend money more wisely spent on something that could save their lives.

Another thing to consider is trailer/mobile home parks. Not much of a shelter can be found there. What I would LOVE to see is for every state county and city/town have legislation that requires trailer parks to have tornado shelters. We have been having that discussion here in my county about passing such legislation stating that before any new trailer park can be built they have to have a tornado shelter in their design, and in the same legislation before any existing trailer park can be expanded they have to build a shelter. Hell we have even gone as far as to find grants for our trailer parks to get shelters built at no cost to them but so far none of them have taken us up on the free shelters.

A person cutting back on soda and junk food to buy a weather radio... that sounds good to me... the reality is though folks aren't going to go running to a tornado shelter any sooner than they would quit eating their junk food. For one reason... they don't want to. Unhealthy eating, and eating too much, cause for more needless death and suffering than any sort of natural disaster, natural stuff is just more scary. If we are going to require places to have tornado shelters, then we must also talk of the need to outlaw junk food and alcohol, and tobacco, and regulate the quantity of food people bring into said trailer parks. If I weren't a freedom loving American I would be all for this. Just let things be, and yes many will suffer. It's one of the consequences of being free.

Disasters like this happen because folks have chosen to live and work and play where tornadoes roam. And many choose to not worry about it, just like they don't worry about what they put into their bodies. Theirs no difference. What I can't figure out is why everyone wishes to change it. Help people when you can, try inform them with helpful suggestions, but we have to just except some of the consequences. If people are free to make their own decision, many times they will make the wrong ones. And those "free" shelters are not free. Anytime there is talk of regulation, or programs, or anything government it is more cost to everyone who works and earns money. Much of it going to folks who are not appreciative and don't even want it.

 

[Keith Hosman]

Yes Joshua you are right about some of the attitude people have. I guess it is like people who live in earthquake prone areas, they know the risk but wouldn't move because they love the area.

I guess it is because my profession is emergency management, one of my duties is mitigation, another is public safety. I happen to take those responsibilities seriously.

 

[John Vandehei]

I've read a number of witness accounts in various news articles of people saying that they were tracking the tornado headed their way on tv, but they then took shelter only when they heard a roar and debris started flying around outside. It amazes me that they weren't hunkered down way in advance, even knowing that a large, violent tornado was headed their way.

That may be part of the problem. While all of this was going on, we had a minor outbreak of severe weather up in Michigan. A low topped LP storm was heading in my direction and became tornado warned. While I was chasing this storm, I noted all the people out in their front yards, looking up at the sky. It seemed more people were outside looking for the tornado than were taking shelter. Maybe with all the tornado videos we see on the news, people may be getting the false sense that tornadoes are something anyone can safely observe. While this may be true for storm chasers and meteorologists, this notion could be dangerous for anyone without a good knowledge of storms, how they work and what to look for. The general public may think they can stand outside their home and if the tornado comes into sight, they'll have plenty of time to head for shelter. That may happen some of the time, but in the case of a rain wrapped tornado or a wedge being obscured by a nearby tree line or buildings, there may not be enough time to get inside once you realize a tornado is bearing down on you.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Sadly too, something you need to consider is the time of day these tornado deaths occurred. With so many people stuck at jobs that rarely will let them take a bathroom break, what's more go the shelter... (Heaven forbid we shut down work) many may have been simply 'trapped.' If you're at work and the structure isn't of substantial strength, there's little if any chance of surviving a direct hit. And these were the types of tornadoes yesterday that unless you were underground, a direct hit let you minimal if any chance of surviving them.

Many, many factors here... many people in the south indeed live in manufactured / mobile homes. The construction is often older homes with less safety features than today's modern construction. Many workplaces are nothing more than fabricated buildings and/or offices. Many may have been traveling at that time of day (work-related,) and yes; there are sadly a number of people who will never accept that it could happen to them.

I will say this in conclusion... I thought the media coverage and forecasters who worked this did an A+++ outstanding job. SPC hit it on the bullseye, local forecast offices were emphasizing life-threatening emergencies, television, radio, spotter groups; it all worked excellent yesterday. Kudos to SPC forecasters on down !!! The infrastructure failure with power outages and weather radio / internet / data outages was somthing that couldn't be fixed in time. No fault of anyone.

I used to be the most stupid person on this forum; always complaining and criticizing forecasters and offering my two cents worth. Nowadays, I don't think they're paid enough and are highly unappreciated. I don't have the answers to give those who ask why would God allow this to happen. But I do know that the survivors will be stronger, communities will unite and pull together and towns will rebuild. There will be lessons learned from this and we will continue to get better. God will comfort those who are hurting and my prayers are for all those affected.

 

[M Dillard]

OKC 5/3/99 is a good example of how ample warning does save lives. While over 40 did die in the storms, the warning for the Moore/OKC tornado was about 1 hour advance due to the media coverage. Add to that SPC in advance with a MDT then HIGH risk gave more advance warning to pay attention. The time of day was also a factor as early evening rush hour more people were talking to family/friends via phone and/or listening to the radio in their cars or arriving home for the evening news. Had it hit late at night, the toll would have increased. Even with the lead time and the pleads to get to shelter the immense size & power of some tornadoes were simply unsurvivable if a direct hit was taken. Some homes were cleared to the slabs, so without a below ground shelter or saferoom you simply can't survive.

There were several tornadic cells ongoing at the same time that day but the sheer number of tornadoes in the deep south likely proved overwhelming for tv coverage to pace each storm and relay warnings to each town or city, especially on a street by street level.

My hat is off to all those who attempted to warn the public and now assist in recovery efforts. The overall scale of the disaster is incredible. The video I have seen sends chills as a storm tracker because when you've seen a monster like the Tuscaloosa storm up close you have a gut-wrenching feeling as you know people will likely die no matter what you try to do to warn the public.

I'm sure without the coverage, early warnings and days advance forecasts that the toll would likely be double if not more so. Thoughts & Prayers to those in the Deep South.

 

[Jake Orosi]

While we're giving kudos, I must admit I was rather impressed with TWC for not running a movie about dolphins or something during the dangerous tornado outbreak, and having actual live coverage instead.

 

[Matt Tottle]

If we are going to require places to have tornado shelters, then we must also talk of the need to outlaw junk food and alcohol, and tobacco, and regulate the quantity of food people bring into said trailer parks. If I weren't a freedom loving American I would be all for this. Just let things be, and yes many will suffer. It's one of the consequences of being free.

That is an absurd comparison. Saying you are against mandating tornado shelters in trailer parks is exactly the same as saying you are against mandated smoke alarms, fire exits, and fire escapes in apartment buildings, stores, movie theaters, and nightclubs. Why shouldn't people be able to escape a dangerous situation just because they can't afford to live in a house with a basement? Being inside a trailer home is the most dangerous place you can be in a tornado - more dangerous than laying down outside in a ditch. So how is that different than living in a 4th floor apartment and there's a fire on the 3rd floor? If you lived in the trailer park, you'd be just as appreciative of the mandated tornado shelter as the person on the 4th floor is of his mandated fire escape.

Don't get me wrong, I am a card carrying NRA member and I hate government intrusion into people's lives. I hate the 'nanny state' regulations that keep coming out to protect stupid people from themselves. But you have to acknowledge that SOME regulations ARE necessary to protect people from circumstances beyond their control. Among those that are necessary are building codes, fire safety regulations, occupational safety, etc. I don't see any problem with mandating new trailer parks have a community shelter or requiring any park seeking to expand to build one.

 

[rdale]

It'll never happen. It's been tried many times but the mobile home lobby is WAY too strong.

 

[E. Clark]

I have been in a couple of major outbreaks- beginning with Good Friday in '65 (which I hardly remember) and in western Ohio in '74 (#38 removed part of our barn roof). I have thought about this and studied extensively - sociology, psychology, building methods, etc.

I have a list, it may not be perfect- but by golly it is a list

1. Not building houses with basements anymore- or what we called cellars. Every house had one at one time- because that is where you stored the coal you burned. When I was 13 in Ohio in '74 I had not lived in a house that did not have cellar, mud room or basement. In the midwest to plains everyone had one- whether it was under the house or separate- and everyone knew to hop to when the weather looked iffy. The Xenia death toll would not have been as bad if more people had been home.

2. Newer building methods. They are cheapening building methods even while driving prices up. A big excuse for 'no cellar' by the building industry is that the new houses are 'tied in' to the slab foundation. Well I have seen more clean scrubbed (newer) slab foundations in the past 2 days than I would ever want to see again in my lifetime. 'Ties' don't stand up to an EF4-5.

3. Noise pollution. People are constantly surrounded by blaring noise these days. A lot of people intentionally tune out most of what is assaulting their ears, especially mechanical to electronic sounds. The Japanese have it right by using Voice Recorded warnings over loudspeaker systems for disaster EBS. This is why the FAA and Airforce insists on Voice recordings in cockpits to warn pilots. We need to use a combination of Siren and Voice everywhere- like what they do in Arab, Alabama. "TORNADO APPROACHING YOUR AREA- TAKE COVER!!" repeated in between sirens would leave no one confused about what is going on.

4. Presentation is everything. If your station meteorologist is interrupted every 15 minutes for a Taco Bell commercial in the middle of an outbreak- fewer people are going to take it seriously. Again, I watched James Spann yesterday on ABC33 and he stayed on target with every sig - and it was rough. When it was time for the nightly news to come on Spann said "And it's time for the News and tonight the News is the Weather." Period. No ifs ands or buts about it.

5. Unfamiliarity with death and destruction. I think a lot of people live in 'TV Land' in their minds. The only death or injury they generally see throughout their lifetimes is fake, and they know it is fake. In the old days if someone died he/she was usually laid out at home. Most recuperation from accidents (and there were more of them because equipment used to be more dangerous and people more often did hands on work) happened at home. So I believe there is more of a 'can't happen to me' mental block in society at large.