GoM: TD FIVE

[jdrenken]

RECON is finding West and SW winds within 94L. Be ready for a TD and growth into TS Danielle.

URNT15 KNHC 101758
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 13 20100810
174900 2554N 08350W 9760 00293 0092 +251 +108 035006 007 014 000 00
174930 2553N 08349W 9757 00296 0092 +252 +109 033005 007 017 000 00
175000 2552N 08349W 9758 00294 0092 +253 +109 016006 007 018 000 00
175030 2550N 08348W 9761 00292 0092 +249 +108 349005 005 018 000 00
175100 2549N 08347W 9760 00293 0092 +244 +108 277002 004 /// /// 03
175130 2547N 08346W 9752 00299 0091 +247 +108 208003 005 /// /// 03
175200 2546N 08345W 9764 00289 0092 +244 +107 209008 008 /// /// 03
175230 2545N 08345W 9761 00292 0092 +244 +107 210010 010 /// /// 03
175300 2543N 08344W 9756 00296 0092 +244 +106 212012 012 /// /// 03
175330 2542N 08343W 9760 00294 0092 +245 +105 219012 013 /// /// 03
175400 2541N 08342W 9760 00293 0093 +245 +105 220012 012 /// /// 03
175430 2539N 08341W 9759 00295 0093 +245 +104 213011 012 /// /// 03
175500 2538N 08341W 9771 00283 0094 +241 +104 218015 016 /// /// 03
175530 2537N 08340W 9755 00299 0095 +238 +103 202017 017 /// /// 03
175600 2535N 08339W 9762 00292 0093 +223 +102 218016 020 /// /// 03
175630 2534N 08338W 9750 00302 0093 +236 +097 212017 019 /// /// 03
175700 2533N 08338W 9761 00292 0093 +245 +089 220017 017 /// /// 03
175730 2531N 08337W 9759 00295 0094 +243 +085 223017 018 021 001 00
175800 2530N 08336W 9765 00291 0096 +241 +085 217018 019 019 000 03
175830 2529N 08336W 9771 00287 0097 +242 +087 197016 019 /// /// 03
$$
;

 

[Charles Loring]

If this dry air ever moves out, this system has clearance to go. Highest strength I have seen the models give it is Cat. 1.

 

[jdrenken]

That pesky ULL is once again causing issues like the other systems this year. I believe strong TS at most unless that ULL gets out of dodge.

 

[Chance Metz]

I can easilyseeing this becoming hurricane if it moves slow eough. It is easily to see the swirl in the clouds form the low pressure center on satellite. Only thing missing is convection near the center. Once that happens we have a TD.

 

[Charles Loring]

TD #5 now in the gulf and TS Warnings issued from the Florida Peninsula westward. New Orleans is included.

I am curious as to how fast this system moves and how fast it may strengthen. I don't expect a "rapid" intensification, but a brief stint as a Cat. 1 is quite possible. IMO. Which isn't worth a whole lot.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

This is quite interesting but it appears there is a bit of an upper air system interfering with it. I think this will be a subtropical storm in a sense.

Intensity appears to be low-mid tropical storm strength on Thursday and into Louisiana.

Not sure if this one would be worth missing work over yet.

 

[Chance Metz]

Might no looks like all the convection is nowhere near the center, at least right now.

 

[Greg Blumberg]

I'm not very impressed by this system. Earlier I was watching visible satellite and I was seeing the anvils getting sheared off near the NE cell of the storm and a lack of convection near the center. I'm not sure if the non-existance of convection near the low is a result of diurnal influences (I have minimal experience in tropical weather) or if it's not that strong. I think it's just not that strong.

As mentioned by Chris, this system is being influenced by an upper level low. It's not hard to see on the GOES-E water vapor imagery and the 250 - 300 mb 0Z maps. The rex block is there.

I really can't see this system strengthening a whole lot before landfall.

 

[Charles Loring]

Nothing like waking up to a 30 mph TD!

Yeah, I'm starting to lose faith in this system too. If it wants to strengthen at all it will have to do so today or it is game over and the TS warnings will be dropped.

 

[Chance Metz]

Aother dud storm it looks. nothing left on satellite anymore.

 

[cdcollura]

NHC officially dissapated it as of 5 PM.

What a year (2009 echoes) so far ;-(

 

[Chance Metz]

Well the season has really just reached it's peak so in a month we may be saying how bad this hurricane season is.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Well the season has really just reached it's peak so in a month we may be saying how bad this hurricane season is.

September 11 to the 17th is the climatological peak.

Maybe the barber "SAL" and his "shears" will be gone by then...

BTW: SAL = Saharan Air Layer (lots of haze in FL now)

 

[Chance Metz]

That is still about a month away. Plenty of time for things to change for the better or worse.

 

[Chance Metz]

Well that is one way to show it. msot of the major stroms on your list happned in September meaning it is to early to call this season a dud. Patience is a good way to explain it.