Forecasting

[Hugb]

Hi, Is there a model that can show me probability of precipitation?
Thanks!

 

[Shane Adams]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/index.php

Choose which model you want from the top (RAP/NAM/GFS etc etc). On the left, click "surface" in the menu bar, then "SLP 6hr precip"

 

[Hugb]

Cool, Thanks for your help!
Now i have another question how do you see fronts and pressure system on models?

 

[Skip Talbot]

Cool, Thanks for your help!
Now i have another question how do you see fronts and pressure system on models?

Using the link Shane provided, look under the Surface section and at the "2m Temperature" and "2m Dew-Point" plots. You're looking for temperature and moisture gradients to identify fronts. You can also identify frontal boundaries by wind shifts shown by changes in direction of the wind barbs on the temperature plot. The temperature plot also shows you isobars for your pressure systems.

 

[Hugb]

Awesome! How do you tell what kinda Front or pressure System it is?

 

[mikedeason]

http://www.theweatherprediction.com

 

[Skip Talbot]

Awesome! How do you tell what kinda Front or pressure System it is?

Sign up for Meted and take some of the free, beginner level courses. They are extremely helpful. This one has info on fronts and other weather basics:
http://www.meted.ucar.edu/emgmt/hazwx/

A few other quick links:
http://www.meteor.wisc.edu/~hopkins/aos100/sfc-anl.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surface_weather_analysis
http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7s.html

 

[Hugb]

Cool, thanks for the help and links!

 

[Bobby Prentice]

Don't forget about the NWS (human) meteorologist precipitation forecasts which are better than the computer forecasts:

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC):
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

NOAA/NWS Graphical Forecasts:
http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conus.php

 

[rdale]

Well, they should be

 

[MClarkson]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/avnmav.txt

This shows the probability of precip over the preceding 6 or 12 hours ranging out to 3 days ahead.

Look for the P06 and P12 categories. Use the find function of your browser to type in the nearest airport code. Like MKE if you live near Milwaukee, for example.