Forecasting Help

[J. Sims]

I need a little help with forecasting I tried to follow along with the chase cases but I get tottaly lost. I just need some help learning the right conditions that tornadoes and severe storms form under and what they look like on a weather map. I know I sound stupid but I have never been able to remember.

 

[rdale]

Check many of the threads here in the beginner info section - it'll help you learn plus allow you to ask more specific questions.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm not sure why this isn't linked on the ST homepage anymore ... but check out the old ST library here for lots of information on forecasting basics:

http://www.stormtrack.org/library/

There are also several books available to help you get your feet wet on the subject, and several NWS sites that have basic severe weather forecasting techniques.

Forecasting is an enormous subject (why our mets around here go to school for years to learn it). Convective forecasting is complex, but it really comes down to just learning how to look for the ingredients for supercells/tornadoes, and where all of these are maximized or coming together well. We are all always learning when it comes to this subject. Also, everyone has a little different technique too. Parameters that may be important to one person aren't necessarily a big deal to someone else. Some tend to be very detail oriented, others are more concerned with the big picture. The single greatest asset to any forecaster, imo, is experience. Pattern recognition that is based on years of practice. Even though many of us here (myself included) are no where near being professionals, we still enjoy learning about it and trying it every chance we get. The reason ... because the better we personally learn the metereology, the more successful we will be as a chaser. I do not like to, and will never, rely exclusively on someone else's interpretation of how the atmosphere is going to behave. As a chaser, your gut is strangely almost as important as your knowledge. You'll notice in the Chase Case threads that there are several chasers who recognize days every time. It isn't because they are necessarily awesome forecasters, but it is because they are really good with pattern recognition - particularly on days they chased in the past. Start practicing when the skies are ripe this spring ... as time goes on, you'll find yourself looking for the same types of clues every time as to what is going to happen somewhere. To me, the SPC outlooks are nice ... and helpful ... and they often provide a basis for starting. BUT, that is the limit for their practicality as far as chasers are concerned. Chasing REQUIRES that you learn to go beyond the SPC and dig into the meat of the atmosphere a bit on your own.

Anyway - - here are a few links to get you started. Hope this helps. Time to do some reading:

http://members.cox.net/jondavies1/tornado_fcsting/tornado_fcsting.htm

http://spotterguides.us/

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/stormspotting/

 

[Sam Kennedy]

I'll recommend what Jason Boggs recommended to me.. the ULTIMATE..
www.theweatherprediction.com

Just go through each section, you will probably have to re-read it quite a few times but it is really helpful. Also if you can pick up Tim's Books at:
www.weathergraphics.com

You can also buy Mike Hollingsheads Storm Structure 101 DVD (Extremely good dvd with quality info and only $25 including S&H!)

It is at www.extremeinstability.com

You could also learn to read models but its better you get the basics down first before moving onto models. I hope some of these help you

 

[Jared Orr]

I would like to second "theweatherprediction.com"

That website has taught me so much over the years.

 

[Mikel Shively]

www.theweatherprediction.com has taught me so much. It's the number one site on the internet, in my opinion, for beginners to learn to forecast. I have also learned alot from the other vets on here. You'll begin to pick up alot, then eventually after a while, you'll realize what's important, and whats not so important...everyone forecasts a little differently, and everyone has their own style. You'll begin to see what works for you, and what doesn't after a while.

 

[Bill Tabor]

I also recommend a couple of books:

Tim Vasquez's 'Forecasting Handbook' and

Sturdevant's 'Severe Local Storms Forecasting Primer'

Those two books combined with insight and the right forecasting tools / maps will get you in a lot of trouble.

 

[David Dildine]

Anyone have a good resource for special 18Z soundings across the country? Dupage is either down or not doing it anymore.

 

[mikegeukes]

David Dildine says:
Anyone have a good resource for special 18Z soundings across the country? Dupage is either down or not doing it anymore.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/

Need more sounding links, visit my site: Geukes Weather

Mike