First Tornado Fatality 2018 US

_dkp_

_dkp_

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Jan 11, 2014
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Location
Chattanooga, Tennessee
Looks like there were several more deaths from yesterday's storms judging by various news articles.

Looking at radar data, I believe these articles are referring to the same tornado, or at least the same storm. Unfortunately, the storm was not tornado warned at the time of the damage and fatality discussed in the articles, so in this case, it would be mostly true to say it came without warning.

I feel that the reliance upon sirens is because for decades, that was the public's main source of a tornado warning. People would hear them and then tune into their local TV or radio station. No sirens, no awareness. Now we have mobile phone alerts, which on some phones can be turned off, and may not always be reliable. I've noticed my phone will go off for some warnings, but not for others, or the warning notification will be delayed.

The social science aspect of severe weather and warnings is extremely complex and something that I won't claim to be an expert on. SPC had this event outlooked since day 6, so hopefully the impacted NWS offices, broadcast stations, and other news sources relayed the potential threat days ahead of time. If they did, were these people even aware of the possibility of severe weather? Were they somehow keeping up with the event and the potential risks as it was happening? I guess that doesn't matter much if the storm was barely severe-warned, let alone tornado warned, when the damage and fatality occurred.
 
_dkp_ said:
Sad news coming from Logan County, Kentucky.
A 79 year old woman was killed after suspected tornado hits her house. My heart goes out to the family.

Also, on another note, when will people stop relying on Cold War era sirens as an adequate, safe way to get life or death warnings?

Thoughts--


https://www.tennessean.com/story/ne...-robertson-emergency-director-says/370814002/

http://www.wjhl.com/top-news/region...an-county-ky-after-possible-tornado/990503922
Click to expand...

It's an older generation problem that's not going to change. It's not that they aren't uninformed about other ways to get weather info, they just choose not to do so because of the extra effort that would take. Every time there's a significant tornado, it's the same ol "We didn't have any warning this just shows how bad the weatherman is" because they are just too stubborn to get a more modern way of getting information. It's just as essential to strong tornadoes as CAPE and shear are to have people listen for sirens and then blame the meteorology community for their own shortcomings.
 
Before we start blaming the people who died in an unwarned tornado, let's recognize that sirens are just another tool in the toolbelt. No alerting system apparently alerted on this event if it truly was unwarned.
 
I wouldn't be able to count how many times I have heard a town's sirens go off just when a storm was 3 miles beyond the town and heading off for the horizon, or my cellphone's reverse 911 alerted me after I had already been filming the tornado for 10 minutes. e.g.: Pilger. I'm not pointing any fingers at anyone. There can be many reasons for why this happens. People perish mostly, IMO, because of the "it won't happen here" syndrome. They don't take threats seriously. My favorite anecdote is the big rig driver who drove right into the Joplin tornado, then said "...but I've been driving this route every day for 20 years!" (paraphrased)
 
Bob Schafer said:
People perish mostly, IMO, because of the "it won't happen here" syndrome. They don't take threats seriously.
Click to expand...

I think that this is one of the biggest challenges in the forecast and warning process. In general, if people don't have the threat staring them in the face or have had it recently happened, they don't take the warning as serious as needed. I feel this can be applied to threats outside of weather too. I'm sure that when warnings are issued for cities like Moore, Joplin, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, etc. and residents know there's a warning, they take action because they've experienced what can happen. However, I know people who have been directly impacted by a tornado, but still don't heed the warnings as they should. Again, social science is complicated.
 
An EF-1 claimed the life of an 83 y/o man yesterday in Keiser, AR as well. His body was found in his trailer that was toppled over in a pond.
 
I've observed that the majority of people who are killed by severe weather involve one of four factors:

1: They are totally unaware of the threat. (No warning system, they rely on others, e.g., children, fail to get warning, etc.)
2: They are aware of the threat but ignore it.
3: They are aware of the threat but take protective action too late.
4: They are aware of the threat, take protective action but the action is not sufficient for the threat.
 
5. They are aware of the threat, take protective action but no reasonable action is sufficient for the threat.
 
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