Fine tuning forecasting skills

[kmreid]

I have been trying to learn how to produce my own forecasts over the past 5 years. I will admit (begrudgingly) that it wasn't until this year that things began to make more sense. Even so, I still have some difficulty making connections on days where parameters are less than stellar. Are there any tips or advice on how to pick up the little nuances that might not be quite as obvious on lower risk days?

The biggest problem that I am having is knowing which parameters will work together to produce severe weather on days when not all parameters are ideal. Some days there is less CAPE, but sufficient shear...how do you tell which ingredients could still potentially work together to provide a conducive atmosphere for storm development?

The basic things that I look for on a synoptic scale are fronts or drylines, developing lows, ample CAPE, and shear (decent looking hodographs to back it up). I am not great a deciphering skew-t diagrams, but I will give them a glance on occasion as well. This all may seem slightly vague and I apologize for that, but I am not entirely sure what to ask...mainly because I have so many questions and it is hard to explain what I want to know precisely.

 

[Jeff Duda]

am not great a deciphering skew-t diagrams, but I will give them a glance on occasion as well.

This is a weakness that will cost you some good forecasts. If you don't feel comfortable with them, spend more time learning how to use them. theweatherprediction.com and the SPC site have excellent help pages for skew-Ts.

Also keep in mind that some events are just intrinstically less predictable than others, so even if you can interpret what the atmosphere looks like or what the models are saying, the verifying atmospheric state may still deviate from the forecast.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

In all honesty, experience is going to be the best teacher. You learn what works, and what doesn't.

The biggest one I've found is moisture. Be weary if dewpoints are under 60F and don't be happy until they are over 70F

 

[kmreid]

This is a weakness that will cost you some good forecasts. If you don't feel comfortable with them, spend more time learning how to use them. theweatherprediction.com and the SPC site have excellent help pages for skew-Ts.

Also keep in mind that some events are just intrinstically less predictable than others, so even if you can interpret what the atmosphere looks like or what the models are saying, the verifying atmospheric state may still deviate from the forecast.

I am able to figure out the LCL by looking at it and I know what the separate parts are (isobars, isotherms, moist and dry adiabats, etc), but I am still working on lapse rates. I've never had an easy time with thermodynamics, so it's something that I am continually working on. I'm very right brain oriented, so while I can see these things individually, putting them together and making them work as a whole can be a little daunting at times. I do agree though that I need to know more about it. I have visited theweatherprediction.com many times over the past few years. I should have an award for frequency at this point!


Thanks Ben! I had a vague idea that dews over 60F are more ideal, but I will be sure to keep that as a good point of reference from now on!

 

[Todd Lemery]

http://www.brss.net/articles/skewt.html

As a follow up to Jeff. This link will take you step by step on reading a skew-T. I'm far from an expert, but I really think looking at a satellite loop on the day of can tell you a great deal in what's going on in the atmosphere. I wish I had a link to add, but I don't. Anybody else?

 

[Mark R]

You might want to check out the OU Scams put on by Rich Thompson. I found them to be very good and it helped me with some areas of forecasting.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ou+scams