EPAC Coming to Life

[Josh Morgerman]

The EPAC season started just over a week ago, and it's showing signs of coming to life. The NHC has noted that a low seems to be forming near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, and the Euro shows a small cyclone forming and recurving sharply toward the coast near the Mexico-Guatemala border.

I live in Southern California, so the EPAC is of particular interest to me; I have easy access to the W coast of Mexico.

The intense cyclone landfalls on this side tend to happen late in the season-- October being by far the best month-- so I'm not exactly holding my breath for early-season action. But it's cool to see things coming to life.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

This one's a slow brew, but it looks like it's taking shape.

There's a broad, sweeping, arcing pattern to the convection tonight-- stretching from near the Bay of Campeche and W Caribbean well into the Pacific-- with a sort of loose center implied S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

What's interesting is that the early-season cyclones in the EPAC usually don't recurve toward the coast-- that sort of track is more typical of late-Sep and Oct-- yet the models recurve this one.

It looks like a cyclone's spinning up:

 

[Stuart Robinson]

EPAC TS Agatha Forms...

Indeed Welcome to Agatha

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#AGATHA

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Well, that one came and went. The cyclone quickly pushed ashore near the Mexico-Guatemala border with an intensity of 1000 mb/40 kt. As is often the case with these young systems, it looked like it was really coming together just as it made landfall.

The BBC last night reported 73 dead and thousands homeless in Guatemala due to the system's heavy rains.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

There are a couple of Invests in the EPAC this afternoon-- 92E and 93E. The latter-- near the Gulf of Tehuantepec-- is looking pretty good this afternoon.

 

[Zack Cooper]

Yeah... they both have a decent shot at becoming tropical depressions.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Yep! Invest 93E-- the system near the Gulf of Tehuantepec-- has become TD 2E. The latest forecast brings it up to 50 kt as it moves WNW, parallel to the S coast of MX. (Intensity guidance is actually a bit higher, but the NHC is staying conservative due to shear.)

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Well, TD 2E died overnight, but in its wake, TS Blas has formed in the open Pacific, 265 mi mi SSW of Manzanillo.

Fish food. Blah.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

And it looks like Celia may form out of Invest 94E, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

It's just a train of W-moving, low-quality fish storms. Not at all surprising for this time of year. EPAC cyclones tend to get stronger and recurve toward the coast late in the season.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

TS Celia looks poised for rapid intensification this afternoon. An eye is already poking through in the visible imagery, and the microwave presentation is great! It's definitely stronger than the 40 kt indicated in the 2 pm PDT advisory.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Celia is now a 65-kt hurricane-- the first of the season. It looks great on visible imagery. The NHC brings it up to a hearty 100 kt in a couple of days, as the shear slackens.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Celia reached 90 kt and is now weakening as it drifts W. Meanwhile, Invest 95E has been declared TD 5E-- and it, too, should become a named storm as it heads into the open ocean.

The EPAC sausage machine continues unabated.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Well... That's sort of true, I suppose.

But I really love the EPAC. I find the cyclones on this side interesting, and given that I live on the Pacific coast and I'm just a quick commuter flight from Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta, I can't help but take an interest. Heck, it's my backyard.

So, I'll enjoy it alone, I suppose!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Back on topic...

Hurricane Celia is at 100 kt and strengthening-- the first major of the year.

TS Darby is rapidly strengthening as well. The last advisory had it at 55 kt, but it's most certainly higher now. It's a small cyclone, but quite symmetric, and with nice outflow in all quads-- a nice-looking system.

Re: Darby's future... The models are all over the place, but the NHC forecast suggests a possible threat to the Michoacan/Guerrero region after Day 5. I'm keeping an eye on it.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Celia really bombed out today and was up to 115 kt (Cat 4) as of the last advisory. Too bad it's a total fish... Wasted talent!