Edouard is here

[jeremy wilson]

Wow! That was fast, or I just wasn't paying attention. Looks like Texas is under the gun again. Models are keeping it right under hurricane strength at landfall,but after the mess Dolly left and the difficulty in strength forecasting, who knows what he'll do before he reaches the coast.

Look out Huston.

 

[David Douglas]

Yea, this is also going to cause havoc with Galveston Bay. This direction will pile water up into the bay and possibly the Houston Ship Channel.

Maybe we'll get some rain from this on in Austin. Dolly's rains were too far south to help much.

Regards,
David
Austin,TX

 

[MClarkson]

A lot of people expected Dolly to have a shot at being a stronger cane, it had a little more time over water, and more importantly had much better initial outflow and much better forecast outflow. This was an environment favorable for rapid intensification.

E(ive given up trying to spell it) has dramatically inferior outflow, and thus might scrape a low cat 1 status. Id be shocked if it did more than that. You can see on satellite upper level winds to the northwest moving the exact wrong direction, and restrictions to outflow/shear from the north and southest. All this large scale marginal upper level support is progged to stick around by the global models. The only good thing is a very tight anticyclone starts to form on both GFS and NAM.

The hurricane specific models say... 18z GFDL: Borderline TS/Cat 1. 18z HWRF: low end TS. 00z SHIPS: Cat 1.

 

[Marc Austin]

I think the main concern here will be rain... maybe not as much for inland areas such as Austin and surrounding suburbs, but Houston is known for flash flooding with relatively little rainfall. We'll just have to see how quickly this thing moves. I wouldn't rule out some intensification, especially if it takes a slightly less northerly track. Along it's current path, dry air entrainment may be a problem for further strengthening. It's something to keep an eye on, but I think Invest 99L may play a bigger role in the tropics, especially as we move into the end of the week.

 

[David Douglas]

Interestingly, the satellite presentation is looking a little better defined this afternoon.

 

[jeremy wilson]

Just took a quick glance at things and the only improvement I can see is in satellite presentation. It's gonna have to get its act together quick if it wants to reach big boy status(hurricane). I'm just hoping for some cloud cover up my way to put a damper on this insane heat. 106 today again.