Doppler indicated tornado warnings

[John Olexa]

When we first started using Doppler indicated tornado warnings I was worried about it. Around here in MD. I have noticed people when a tornado warning is issued, stop! pay attention to the news ect..... until, they say it's a "Doppler indicated" tornado. Than they are like oh, ok, and just continue on with what they were doing like it's nothing. Mostly because 99% of the time nothing does happen. Of course we understand the purpose of it. But this was my biggest fear that non weather people were going to start treating DIT warnings as if it were a watch. Seems to have happen, in this state anyway.

 

[Adam R Davis]

I've noticed this trend in Indiana as well, where I spent much of my life. And it's a state to which tornadoes are not uncommon. It's also the driving force for the Skywarn program around there. There's also a tendency to ignore/underestimate severe thunderstorm warnings. This in spite of multiple instances I can recall in which trailers were obliterated and top floors sheared off houses, not to mention countless trees falling through living rooms. These people are often the types to say they had no warning after the fact.

Unfortunately one can only do so much when it comes to getting people to take proper precautions. It also leads to a specific concern of mine. When/if radar detection reaches a sophistication that allows us to pinpoint tornado formation with 100% accuracy, will people be more likely to leave their shelters to watch it rather than going to the shelters for safety?

 

[MClarkson]

I've been saying for a long time that weak rotation under marginal dynamic conditions should not be tornado warned. There should be a class of warning that really means excessive threat... save it for the landfalling major hurricane eyewalls and the discrete supercells.

 

[Adam R Davis]

I've been saying for a long time that weak rotation under marginal dynamic conditions should not be tornado warned. There should be a class of warning that really means excessive threat... save it for the landfalling major hurricane eyewalls and the discrete supercells.

I'd pondered the notion of something like a "Tornado Advisory" in less than ideal situations, but since there's already a sense of apathy and even confusion about terminology from many in the public, it's probably not the best idea.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Nothing will change as long as the standards set by NOAA headquarters on NWS warning performance are unchanged. They have a POD and FAR goal. Sadly, it can be shown that changes over the years unrelated to advances in radar technology haven't actually been skillful changes. Rather the standards are just moving around on the same skill contour.

 

[MClarkson]

Simply classify the low-end tornado threats as severe thunderstorm warning. No need to change anything on the public interface side.

 

[rdale]

What's the value in that? If you think there is a tornado - issue a tornado warning. We all know that nobody pays attention to SVRs (and for good reason.)

As Jeff said - not until the NWS changes the way they judge warnings will there be changes in the way warnings are issued. There should be no SVR and TOR product - there should be products that explain the impacts. Let the cause be something the met community debates, not an issue the public gets caught up in.

 

[Mike Johnston]

What's the value in that? If you think there is a tornado - issue a tornado warning. We all know that nobody pays attention to SVRs (and for good reason.)

As Jeff said - not until the NWS changes the way they judge warnings will there be changes in the way warnings are issued. There should be no SVR and TOR product - there should be products that explain the impacts. Let the cause be something the met community debates, not an issue the public gets caught up in.

Like the impact-based warnings experiment, Rob? Please. I've seen absolutely no evidence that it has been any improvement at all. On the contrary, it's looked pretty foolish at times.

Even so, I agree with Jeff's original comment that we seem to just be moving around on the same skill contour. If anything, there should be some real emphasis on reducing the FAR standard through more focused and intense training of the NWS warning mets.

 

[rdale]

IBW uses SVRs for 110mph straight line winds. I would suggest that a product primarily used for dime sized hail is not the proper conduit.

 

[MClarkson]

We all know that nobody pays attention to SVRs (and for good reason.)

Exactly. Get the low end tornado threats out of the tornado warning regime. There should be a class of warning that means "people are about to die".

 

[Jeff Wright]

That would be the so called Tornado Emergency. Maybe a "TVS warning?" A TDS should get the Tornado Emergency moniker

 

[Mike Johnston]

IBW uses SVRs for 110mph straight line winds. I would suggest that a product primarily used for dime sized hail is not the proper conduit.

There is nothing at all wrong with the existing criteria for a SVR - it's just being misapplied too often. That is, it's being over-used in marginal, non-severe situations such as the dime sized hail you mentioned. I just hope we can get some reduction on the FAR through better execution, but changing/expanding definitions is nothing but confusing.

 

[Rob H]

Is this the appropriate thread to complain about watches as well? I'm not even talking blue boxes - red boxes are ridiculous sometimes. I can't count the number of times here in Minnesota there is a red box and there isn't a storm anywhere near by. The next morning at work my co-workers confront me: "there was a tornado watch last night and it didn't even rain, what the hell". I just shrug and say I didn't push the button.

It seems silly that you can go from a red box like the ones hypothetically mentioned above, and then the next level of warning is half an hour out for a storm like El Reno. I remember on 4/14/12 there was a tornadic supercell with a nasty couplet headed towards a small Kansas town at night. We called family that lived there maybe 40-45 minutes ahead of time and told them to take cover. The warning wasn't issued until the storm was maybe 20-25 minutes out. A significant tornado ended up hitting the town.

We have a rough idea of how long it takes a discrete cell to become tornadic, how storms will move, and how long they'll remain discrete - why not have more refined watches that actually have towns in the path of supercells?

 

[rdale]

There is nothing at all wrong with the existing criteria for a SVR - it's just being misapplied too often.

Even if properly applied for a 100% POD 0% FAR for 1 inch hail, it still sets people up to die when the 110mph derecho comes through. 1" hail doesn't kill. Doesn't even remotely harm. 110mph winds do kill. All of the above however are SVRs.

Can you imagine the outcry when NWS says they will no longer issue Tornado Warnings for EF0/1 events? That's just a non-starter on SO many levels

 

[Jeff Duda]

Even if properly applied for a 100% POD 0% FAR for 1 inch hail, it still sets people up to die when the 110mph derecho comes through. 1" hail doesn't kill. Doesn't even remotely harm. 110mph winds do kill. All of the above however are SVRs.

Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Have you ever been hit in the head by a 1" hailstone falling at terminal velocity (in the vicinity of 80-100 mph)? It most likely won't kill you, but it sure as hell would hurt. Now imagine getting hit by a couple every second if you are caught outdoors when a "minimal" SVR dropping just 1" hail stones and smaller hits. I still agree that there is a difference between the single 1"-stone that verifies a SVR and a 110-mph derecho, though.

The problem is that according to "the rules", a tornado verifies a SVR, so things get ambiguous. If you are unsure about the true threat, issue a TOR. Then you are covering your ass statistically.

My point is that I think it is necessary to distinguish between hail/wind-only threats and tornado threats. It might help things if a tornado didn't verify a SVR. But then again, if a tornado hit without high straight line winds or large hail (assume the RFD wasn't very strong), you'd probably think to yourself, man, that was one severe thunderstorm!