Dodge City NWS and the Astonishing Decision Not to Issue a Tornado Warning Earlier today

[Mike Smith]

I'm sure most remember the people frantically tweeting DDC NWS on March 13, 2021, and asking them to issue a tornado warning. They replied, "no."

Well, we had an equally bizarre situation earlier today with tornado photos all over Twitter yet no TOR. Details here: Another Bizarre NWS Tornado Warning Situation

The dangerous "meteorological cancer" continues to spread across the NWS. Call your congressional delegation?

 

[Andy Wehrle]

It's bad when an amateur like me could issue a tornado warning way faster than the NWS. While they're the most important, it's not just tornado warnings, either. We just had an unwarned thunderstorm do localized but significant (several large trees snapped off, some coming down on houses) wind damage a couple counties north of me here in southern Wisconsin on Sunday evening.

Also, I have a noticeable hail dent (the first one of my career) in my car from a chase near Indianola, IA in late June from a storm that did not have a severe thunderstorm warning on it at the time (the reports indicated up to 1.75", just shy of "significant" criteria, hail fell there). I was fortunate to escape with no damage to the windows.

Here's another one for you from last Wednesday's Chicago area tornadoes. The survey indicates the Plato Center-Elgin EF1 (the larger/longer-lived of the two concurrent tornadoes I briefly saw on my chase that day) began at 6:16 PM. The tornado warning covering that part of Kane County appears to not have been issued until 6:18 PM. That's negative two-minute lead time for a storm about to move into a quite heavily populated area! An earlier tornado warning had covered a different area of Kane County for a different storm that produced a tornado in Oswego in Kendall County. That warning was issued at 5:37 PM, but the survey indicates the tornado began at 5:36.

Mike, from what I've seen on your blog on your opinions about other topics like climate change, COVID, etc, it's plain you and I don't agree on much, but we can agree that this is a serious problem that needs to be urgently addressed. It's absolutely inexcusable that the quality of NWS warnings has regressed so much in the last 10-15 years.

 

[Mike Smith]

Mike, from what I've seen on your blog on your opinions about other topics like climate change, COVID, etc, it's plain you and I don't agree on much, but we can agree that this is a serious problem that needs to be urgently addressed. It's absolutely inexcusable that the quality of NWS warnings has regressed so much in the last 10-15 years.

Thank you for your comments. There was also an EF-2 in Pennsylvania that was unwarned since the fatal Matador Tornado occurred last month. The "meteorological cancer" (a term coined by the late Len Snellman of the NWS in the 1970's) is spreading like wildfire.

As to our political differences, I'm very appreciative you took the time to write in spite of them.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Are NWSFOs supposed to issue tornado warnings when 1) tornadogenesis seems to be imminent and 2) there is no current tornado? This is a question, not an incitement. I don't know the answer. I do know Pueblo issued a TOR based on my communication with them one time in that exact same scenario...

 

[Mike Smith]

Are NWSFOs supposed to issue tornado warnings when 1) tornadogenesis seems to be imminent and 2) there is no current tornado? This is a question, not an incitement. I don't know the answer. I do know Pueblo issued a TOR based on my communication with them one time in that exact same scenario...

Hi Bob,

The NWS has a published metric on the topic: their goal is 13 minutes of lead-tine for all tornadoes. That, of course, means they must issue the warning before the tornado has developed.
What this story, the recent Star-Telegram story, and others fail to point out is that the NWS routinely met that goal from 2005 to 2011 with an average lead-time of 13.3 minutes. They have regressed.

For the record, I'm not that worried about an EF-0 in the middle the High Plains with no-one within 15 miles.

• I am very worried about an upper-end EF-3 in the densely populated northern suburbs of Philly that is an obvious warning situation (i.e., Bensalem Tornado: Another Dangerous National Weather Service Warning Miss ).

• I'm very worried about an upper-end EF-3 that killed four people in Texas with the radar practically shouting "issue a tornado warning!" ( Matador: Another Fatal Tornado Without Adequate Warning ).

• And, I'm extremely worried about yesterday fiasco where the tornado warning status in the DDC CWA had no correlation to the meteorology of the moment.

The Joplin Tornado was very poorly warned by the NWS and local emergency management (sirens mismanaged) and it was an EF-5. One hundred sixty-one died. I am terrified another JLN is just a matter of time. I document that tornado here: https://www.amazon.com/Sirens-Silen...digital-text&sprefix=,digital-text,114&sr=1-1

The bottom line is this: Friends and colleagues, I can't do this alone. You can't believe how many arrows I have in my back! There have been attempts to "cancel" me.

Person after person have told me, "I agree with you but I don't want to offend the NWS." The NWS is a federal agency that reports to us. While we all have personal relationships and want to encourage the NWS in its core mission, people are losing their lives because of this incompetence. I urge you to write a note to each member of your congressional delegation and ask them to convene a hearing pertaining to NWS tornado warning accuracy and possible solutions. Lives literally depend on it.

 

[Shane Adams]

Let's take everything and everyone and only focus on the bad. The mistakes. The outliers.

What's the average, do you suppose, of correct/timely warnings for every one missed?

The Mike Smith witch hunt for the NWS just never stops. Man, I just got back here after like a decade, and it's like I'm back in 2008.

 

[Mike Smith]

The Mike Smith witch hunt for the NWS just never stops. Man, I just got back here after like a decade, and it's like I'm back in 2008.

So, I spend five years researching a book, writing it, and finding a publisher for a book that is filled with praise for the NWS and I'm on a "witch hunt"? Just, wow.

Your point would be far more effective if the Boston NWS hadn't missed the tornado in Easton (complete with couplet and lofted debris) last night. And, it would be far more relevant if the NWS's own tornado warning stats hadn't tanked over the last decade.

The question for you: why do you defend missed warnings of fatal tornadoes that were reported by spotters and obvious on radar before the tornadoes struck?

Update: BOS NWS has confirmed the tornado and rated it EF-1. See attached.

 

[Mike Smith]

We had another giant NWS miss this evening for Kansas City and surrounding areas. There are 100,000 homes and businesses without power. Trees down all over the Metro.

No watch -- at all -- for KC. In fact, at 7:13pm, SPC wrote, Expected coverage and duration of severe risk is not expected to necessitate a watch. One was issued south of KC at 8:13pm.

The first KC metro SVR was issued at 7:56pm. The problem is that 65 mph winds were already occurring in the warning area by the time it was issued.

The National Weather Service is increasingly failing at its core mission of providing timely and accurate warnings.

Last night it was a Massachusetts tornado. Tonight it was a squall line with G 65 mph (KMCI), 76 mph winds (KMKC), 74 mph (KOJC) and 72 mph (KIXD). Reports, so far, are nearby. They don't include the hail reports as this was primarily a wind event.

 

[JamesCaruso]

@Shane Adams great to see you back here! Always enjoyed your sometimes-provocative, always-insightful posts! Although I tend to disagree with this one… I’m no expert, and I prize intellectual humility in recognition of uncertainty and innate human biases… But the NWS PoD stats that @Mike Smith has cited in other related threads do seem to back up his argument, and I have yet to see them refuted here in any way that provides an alternative explanation for why they are down. If someone can do that, I will remain open-minded and would find myself back to neutral on the topic.

@Mike Smith What are the specifics on the Easton MA tornado warning? I was in Boston that night, and noticed a warning issued for Plymouth and areas west. I saw the Easton tornado damage on the news the next morning. I checked a map and saw that Easton would indeed have been within the tornado warning polygon. So I assume are just saying it was issued too late, not that it wasn’t issued at all. Can you provide more specifics on this one?

 

[Mike Smith]

@Mike Smith What are the specifics on the Easton MA tornado warning?

There was a severe thunderstorm watch in effect: Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568 This should have signaled BOS NWS to put their radar into SAILS mode. Unfortunately, they did not and it was updating at only 3.5 minute intervals. Note: the images I'm displaying show time in CDT.

This is the 8:20pm image. The tornado touched down at 8:17 per the NWS's survey. It is possible it might have been detected sooner if it had been on 80-second SAILS mode.

Clearly, a tornado warning is needed at this point, 8:23pm, but none was issued at this point. Easton was never under a tornado warning.


I have plotted the tornado warning to the east of Easton. It was not issued until 8:32pm -- way too late. The entire warning is below.


Officially, the tornado was on the ground 1 minute. However, the NWS says they were unable to assess conditions farther east (road network?) and the tornado could have been on the ground longer. That is below.

Of course, there was no way this could have been a 13-minute lead time (NWS's goal) tornado warning. However, it could and should have been considerably better than it was-- no warning at all in the area where the tornado actually occurred.

This was Saturday evening. Combine it with the surprise squall line that struck KC Sunday and it was not a good weekend for the NWS.