Do U.S. Coastal Residents Understand "Storm Surge"?

[Mike Smith]

The death toll in the Philippines appears to be near 7,000. The Wall Street Journal has a superb story about what went wrong. I has gotten me to thinking, Do U.S. coastal residents understand the storm surge threat? I think so, but now I am not so sure.

There is a video of the storm surge as it came into Tacloban and the WSJ story here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2013/11/wsj-what-went-wrong-in-philippines.html

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!

Mike

 

[Shane Adams]

Do U.S. coastal residents understand the storm surge threat? I think so, but now I am not so sure.

What made you change your mind?

 

[Mike Smith]

The experience in the Philippines.

 

[rdale]

I would consider the tsunami threat to be notably higher, and better known by the public, in the Philippines than in the Florida Peninsula. I don't think you can draw connections to Americans' response to a hurricane threat by how they acted.

 

[Michael Towers]

I think memories of Katrina and Sandy are still relatively fresh and serve as a reminder of the dangers of storm surge. Unlike the Philippines nearly every household here has at least one TV and direct access to news and most have seen the devastation and understand that storm surge is more than “winds and flying debris and the rainâ€￾. It’s tragic that so many people in and around Tacloban may not have understood the threat facing them and ultimately lost their lives as a consequence. I don’t see that happening here, perhaps only the most ignorant and/or disconnected wouldn’t know a hurricane was imminent and the dangers caused by any possible related storm surge. That said, it wouldn’t hurt for media types to elaborate when discussing the storm surge associated with any storm and to my recollection they usually do.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Good question. I know that people are generally knowledgeable and cautious about hurricanes here in the low country of South Carolina. Now, how much information about storm surges in particular, and WHAT IT MEANS TO THEM personally, I'm not so sure. For example, I live about 3 miles inland from the sea shore. I know the threat of a storm surge exists with any strong hurricane, and also depends on factors like the topography (both offshore and onshore) and angle of the storm's approach. But, still, at what level of expected storm surge, if any, I would personally feel threatened, I can't exactly say. In general, because of the wind threat alone, I'd be out of here if there was a Category 3 approaching. Because I've got a family to look after, effectively I would be evacuate a Category 2 or higher. But, I have so say, I have no idea at what level of storm surge forecast I would have to truly worry - 15 ft.? 20 ft.?, 25 ft.? I doubt if many of my neighbors know either. All I know is that we live in a flood zone (insurance premiums tell me that) on a coastal plain. The wind threat I feel reasonably comfortable in looking at a forecast and roughly estimating what that would mean to us. Storm surge? Much more uncertain about that.

If we ever do have the threat of a storm surge, I would hope the forecast includes information on how far inland a surge would affect. It's one thing to predict the height of a storm surge, but that would have to be supplemented by information on the likely practical impacts to be of optimal value.

 

[cdcollura]

Now that we are repeating the 1980's 'run' of NO hurricanes for a WHILE ... Two things we need to be concerned about...

1). It (a major hurricane strike) WILL happen again (probably NOT for a while but it WILL). Complacency does kill...

2). Still, even to this day, people do not realize how serious a landfalling hurricane can be. Also, some weaker (and LARGE) storms - Sandy 2012, for example - Can have a category 3 (or even 5) surge under the right conditions (long fetches and 20-30 foot breaking waves).

 

[Shane Adams]

I would consider the tsunami threat to be notably higher, and better known by the public, in the Philippines than in the Florida Peninsula. I don't think you can draw connections to Americans' response to a hurricane threat by how they acted.

That answers my second question. If Mike had simply posted the link and then said "I don't know if US Coastal residents understand storm surge" I would be like "yeah, I get that." What confused me was he said "I think so, but now I'm not so sure." Like Rob (and it's amazing to me we agree on something), I don't understand why Mike would draw a comparison between a place halfway around the world and the US coast, especially when he first stated he believed they did in fact understand storm surge. But obviously that's not the point, so...