Concerning Monday's possible tornado outbreak and temperatures...

[Todd Friskey]

Concerning Monday's possible tornado outbreak, how will temperatures play a role? As of 0730 this AM in extreme SW MO its only 49 degrees. KSGF is predicting a high for Joplin to be around 69 degrees. I even saw on TWC this AM, Vortex 2 is in Perry, OK and it was cool there and misty. Mike and Dr Forbes were even wearing jackets during their live shot. Still trying to figure out where the warm front is based off of the OK Mesonet website. Back to my topic... I have always perceived instability to be more prominent when the temps were higher? I mean if we remain under the cloud cover most of the day, temps stay down, then this the atmosphere over here will have less fuel to work with if cells do get going in CNTRL/NE OK. I am not saying there will not be supercells. Clearly the the forecast models and reading post from experience chasers, I know there will be as such. However, could there be less than anticipated. I guess right now I am a little skeptical still of the high risk factor. However, KSGF mentioned in their HWO this morning a "right tuning of the supercells". I am still learning, so forgive me for my stupidity at times. I may have to work today until 1400. But then I am picking up my teen from school and then preparing to head to E/KS or NE OK if cells do get going. Any shared thoughts from experienced ST members would be valuable in my learning. Thanks!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm not sure you'll find the "good" warm front in the OK Mesonet yet. The solid >65F Tds are still a couple of counties S of I20 in northern Texas, a long ways from the OK/KS border being only 8-10 hours out from hoped-for initiation. Current conditions across most of that area N of the warm front are cloudy and cool, with some drizzle, showers, and small tstorms. In order to get the more unstable, high theta-e air in here by "t-time", we'll need to see tremendous theta-e advection. Fortunately, the LLJ is extremely strong, so it's possible; unfortunately, this very strong theta-e advection will also mean very strong isentropic lift, which will keep clouds around and the temps relatively cool. It's possible that this, in light of very strong vertical wind shear, is why the storms on the 4km NSSL WRF from last night are rather pitiful and junky. At least that model did show very rapid destabilization occurring in central and northern Oklahoma through the mid-to-late afternoon. The newly-in 12z observed soundings indicate quite a bit of moisture above the surface at OUN, SHV, etc., so Tds will increase as this higher mixing ratio air is mixed downward as soon as we can get some insolation/heating (which may be difficult for a while considerably the very deep nature of the saturation on the OUN sounding).

[We may move this to the FCST thread since it's pretty specific to a particular chase forecast...]

 

[David Goines]

Though I'm not an "experienced ST member", I'll say something...
Once the warm front moves northward, you'll see temps begin to rise and instability rapidly increase. As someone said on another thread, most large tornado outbreaks begin the day with cloudy/rainy mornings.

Just a word of advice for a self defined "learning" chaser. Be CAREFUL out there. These storms will be moving FAST. Not like the usual KS/OK storms that move 20mph but these suckers will be scootin close to 50mph. With the large amount of chasers that will probably be out, this could be a difficult chase day for a beginner. I'm not saying "stay home and get out of the way" (like some people would). It's a free country and do what you want as long as you don't put other people in danger.
Keep your head on a swivel as these storms will go severe/tornadic VERY quickly after they initiate. Good luck.

 

[Elinor McLennon]

Does Grlevel 3 show things like warm fronts and outflow boundaries? At 50mph, these storms won't be chaseable unless you're in a helicopter, huh? How could vortex2 anticipate an intercept with storm speeds so fast? Like Todd, I am not an experienced forecaster but this cloud cover and cool temps don't seem favorable for a high risk today. I am sure there will be alot to learn from todays setup.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Does Grlevel 3 show things like warm fronts and outflow boundaries? At 50mph, these storms won't be chaseable unless you're in a helicopter, huh? How could vortex2 anticipate an intercept with storm speeds so fast? Like Todd, I am not an experienced forecaster but this cloud cover and cool temps don't seem favorable for a high risk today. I am sure there will be alot to learn from todays setup.

I'm guessing they'll probably be setting up way ahead of a storm and waiting for it to come to them, deploying, then packing up and moving south for (hopefully) the next storm. Not much else you can do.

 

[MatthewCarman]

April 8, 1999 started out cloudy and cold across the state of Iowa. Temps were in the 30's-40's if I remember right. Then came the warm front and super cells exploded in the warm sector. They weakened when they moved into cold air but in the area of warm air the storms produced many tornadoes including atleast one F4 tornado and multiple F3 tornadoes. When the storms finally past and the warm front moved over my house it warmed up into the low 60's to low 70's across Iowa and it felt warm outside. I also remember seeing clear blue skies after the front moved out.

So low temps are not an issue if there is a warm front to work with or warm air being pushed from the south ahead of the system. There is still time for things to warm up into the 60's today which is enough for super cells.

 

[Richard Dickson]

Does Grlevel 3 show things like warm fronts and outflow boundaries?

If you subscribe to the allisonhouse.com 'Storm Chaser' package, you can comfigure GRLevel3 to show Current Frontal Locations and also the projected locations 12 hours out. I find this feature to be quite interesting.

 

[ahaberlie]

The cloudy/misty weather is an indicator of an approaching warm front. The warm front is acting as a lifting mechanism, sending cloud cover/precipitation in a perpendicular and shear-wise direction. Not sure if the storms are forecast to fire around the warm front or the cold front but good timing could get an area just south of the warm front southeasterly winds at the surface and even more favorable rotational shear than an area, say, with southerly winds.

 

[Jeff Turner]

Nothing here in Fort Worth. Tornado watch just northwest of us. HIgh winds, lots of cumulous, haze, and some high cirrus. But no sign of towers/storms. NWS radar shows a big cell crossing into OK from Wichita Fallas.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

I hope everyone out there is staying safe... I have been following some chasers online with streaming video today and they got some awesome pictures. Unfortunately there has already been death and destruction from these storms and I just hope there won't be any more.

Slightly off topic, but did anyone else notice that the high and moderate risk areas on the SPC Day 1 1630Z outlook (11:30 a.m. CDT today), formed an almost perfect heart shape right over OK and KS? That would make a great picture for someone who "hearts" storm chasing to put on their blog or website....

 

[Elaine Spencer]

I hope everyone out there is staying safe... I have been following some chasers online with streaming video today and they got some awesome pictures. Unfortunately there has already been death and destruction from these storms and I just hope there won't be any more.

Slightly off topic, but did anyone else notice that the high and moderate risk areas on the SPC Day 1 1630Z outlook (11:30 a.m. CDT today), formed an almost perfect heart shape right over OK and KS? That would make a great picture for someone who "hearts" storm chasing to put on their blog or website....