Chasing on Friday???

[mcwell]

I'm from Michigan and my friend and I are planning on arriving near the Little Rock area on Thursday night for some possible storms on Friday. This is our first storm chasing chance and would love some guidance from anyone. Drop me a message for any feedback or ideas. Thanks!

 

[Jason Boggs]

First of all, it's obviously going to be tough with the hills and trees. I'm sure you know that though.

As far as a loose target...a quick glance at the models tells me that somewhere in NW Arkansas might be a good bet. It's way too early to pin down an exact target as things will change between now and then.

Can you wait a few days until storms pop in better areas of the country ie...the TX OK panhandle, SW Kansas or Western Ok?

Again, chases in that part of AR is very difficult and frustrating. Just being honest with you and hopefully things go well no matter what you decide to do.

 

[mcwell]

Sorry about the miscommunication. We are setting up in AR, and heading west towards OK on friday. In your opinion, is there going to be any action on friday in the OK - TX - MO area???

 

[Lanny Dean]

Certainly conditions are coming together for a possible severe weather event on Friday and just by looking at the latest model runs....you and your partner are making a good call by going west into OK.
Of course I am not going to forecast for you, thats the part that you guys will have to do and thats the fun part but as of right now conditions do look very good....
3500-4000j/kg, good shear and some decent lift.
Will be interesting to see just where (if any) OFB's will be but all in all Friday has great potential IMO.
Hope this helps....and good luck

 

[Greg Blumberg]

Just by looking at SPC, I would say yes. I've been off of the models and forecasting due to studying for exams, so I can't say much more. The moderate risk, however is getting close to the bad terrain area. If they do move it further west, I'd say go for it.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

SPC has overhyped everything this year...I recommend turning around and driving back to Michigan while you still have a windshield...you know, cut the costs a bit while you still can...

 

[Patrick Martin]

Welcome to the forum mcwell. The SPC seems to think Friday will be an active day with a moderate risk posted. If you are looking for insight on any particular day, I would encourage you to check out the forecast threads. There is currently an ongoing discussion about Friday 5/8 going on already. It may be good information that can help you to refine your target, but as Lanny mentioned, it will be up to you and your partner to do your forecasting.

For feedback, based on your post and the nature of your question, it seems like this is a new venture for you and your friend. If that is the case:

• Is this your first ever chase experience? If yes, would reccomend you keep some distance from the storms. It will help you avoid getting in over your head or into a situation you are not prepared for.
• Are you renting a car or using a personal verhicle? If renting, get the insurance! If your own car, be prepared for the fact that hail damage is real.
• What kind of data will you have available? If radar, understand that there are delays in what you see and what's happening.
• Do you have good GPS or paper maps that have detailed roads, not just the main highways?
• Dirt roads quickly turn to mud. Getting stuck is a real hazard. If you are new, stick to the paved roads.

Good luck. I hope you and your friend do well.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

[*] Dirt roads quickly turn to mud. Getting stuck is a real hazard. If you are new, stick to the paved roads.
[/LIST]

Just FYI, those dirt roads are already muddy. That area has been receiving tons of rain recently, with widespread minor flooding across southern OK and the Red River valley.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Just FYI, those dirt roads are already muddy. That area has been receiving tons of rain recently, with widespread minor flooding across southern OK and the Red River valley.

Very much so. Some of the roads 'back home' were still petty much impassable even for my vehicle. That entire area is probably no good for driving off the highways. Also, with a lot of minor creek flooding going on, some of those roads will have creeks overflowing them with even just a little bit of rain.

---

Otherwise when I first started I had very little clue on what was going on...but I could still crudely forecast. I would try to put a little bit of work in that. I hope you aren't expecting people to pick your target for you because I'd generally say if you can't pick a target by yourself, you probably don't need to be chasing. And for godness sakes, please give at least a couple of miles between yourself and the updraft base in an area away from the precip core if this is your first time (with good options away from the storm just in case). And if you don't know what an updraft base is, just please find someone to ride with and learn the basics first or go cliff jumping or something.


Link for better basic forecasting skills either way:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/

 

[Maurice Fitzgerald]

Mcwell, good luck on your first chase. I've not been out yet myself, with no experience I'm just going to see if I can find an opportunity to ride along with experienced chasers once to twice this season, if any are in my neck of the woods who wouldn't mind a newbie tagging along. lol My old age wisdom has taught me not to go running headlong into something I know little about. lol Tomorrow does appear to be a good setup, best of luck to you and STAY SAFE!

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Being that this is your first time chasing, I would avoid chasing in eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. The terrain there sucks and visibility sucks making it very dangerous. I chased in eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas last year and after that, I will never chase in that territory ever again... and this is coming from someone who has been chasing for 12 years now. Just my .02 cents.

 

[Melissa Jablonski]

I agree with Joey Ketchem and i've been chasing 30 years give or take a couple. I"d go further west if I were you. I won't pick your target either. Have fun and be careful.
Melissa

 

[mcwell]

storms?

Thanks for all of your input today, if anymore info comes your way, please pass it along. We are actually going to be close to the OK border tonight. So we will be close to our target area tomorrow!

 

[Eric Flescher]

wifi or mobile

If you have mobile internet that would be great

if not many duck near a hotel etc and use wifi on their computer, iPhone, blackberry etc

If so you can see what is happening on twitter, facebook, stormtrack

I lived in Ann Arbor, MI 1975-1981 loved it there

Happy chasing and be safe out there