Chance of thunderstorms in Estonia today and tomorrow

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Nov 14, 2006
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Location
Laguja, Estonia, Europe
European Storm Forecast Experiment has issued level 1 threat for southern parts of Estonia(that's my neck of the woods) and goes straight through Baltic Tornado Alley(area from Tartu to Riga).

Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute is also forecasting thunderstorms, they begin this evening, last through tonight and thunderstorm threat remains also tomorrow.

At the moment, sky is clear in Laguja, air temperature is 53,1 degrees Fahrenheit.

Atmosphere is yet rather stable in Tallinn as of 0Z sounding(and that's the only sounding taken in Estonia :( ). However, 850-600 Lapse rate is 17,48 degrees Celsius, LCL AGL 257,06 m and. Total Totals index is 53 (!) degrees and KO-index is -0,98.

Update at 15:56 Estonian time - Latvian Environmental, Geological and Meteorological Agency's weather radar shows two very strong cells in Latvia(rain in excess of 1 in/hr)
 
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We had a some sort of thunderstorm outbreak. Within 8 hours, I had 5 thunderstorms hitting me and 1 passing west of me. I had hail with diameters up to 0.6 inch. Total rainfall amount of this day so far is 19,6 mm = 0.77 inches.

Interesting thing is that if the thunderstorms hit, I hardly noticed any temperature drop. When usually strong thunderstorms cause temperature to drop over 15 degrees Fahrenheit in some cases(but those were at afternoon or evening though), then this morning, during storms, air temperature just dropped maybe a few tenths of a degree.

Storms have now gone to Russia. Some houses have caught on fire in Estonia as a result of lightning strike. No fatalities or injuries among humans, but one dog died in a burning house believed to be ignited by thunder.

I will probably release observation log this weekend.

Estofex has put eastern parts of Estonia(including my area) under Level 2 threat.
 
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