ATLANTIC: TS BONNIE (2010)

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Jason Foster

Discussion to begin for interesting gathering of activity down near Puerto Rico. Of particular interest of course will be the high pressure of the SE. I'm watching the front draped across the central US for local reasons, but now it may play a part in direction of 97L/bonnie.

20100720_1500z_storm_97.jpg


Interesting plots on this system. Fairly grouped together this early in development.

Add: changing SFWMD spaghetti plot:
storm_97.gif


Viz Sat Floater (when visible):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

IR Sat:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ft.html
 
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This invest has some nice potential... If it tracks through the straits and into the gom... by landfall time this thing could be really strong
 
Good day all,

This system looks really interesting as of the 5 PM advisory from NHC. The system is near the Mona passage (between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic) and appears to be taking direct aim on S Florida in MOST of the models.

I am dusting off my equipment for hurricane chasing for this one, as this one can be a tropical storm in the next day or so. Whether or not it crosses south FL, it will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico and probably intensify there as well.

If it holds such a scenario, it should also track over the oil spill area. Good timing on capping the leak I should say, but bad for the oil already there.
 
Latest runs seem to (as I suspect will be the case) trend south, missing or just grazing the Florida Keys.

I certainly for my personal reason prefer a GOM intercept this time around (less driving, less gas, more time to prep). However, not liking the far end of that trend toward NO for some models. As pointed out in other threads and discussion, not looking forward to dealing with oil balls in hurricane force winds. The other side of that is the increased amount of media already in place along the Gulf Coast due to BP's "situation".
 
It will be interesting to see how this one evolves over the next few days. If it can hold itself together, get to hurricane strength, and make its way toward the coast between the Ms/Al border to Fl panhandle, this may be the one I'm looking to intercept this year. Any further west and I'll likely be stuck at work with no days off (provided it gets strong enough for that) handling evacuees. Plus the further east it goes the less oil there will be causing problems down there. I can just imagine a hurricane making landfall with an oil filled storm surge at N.O. / W. Ms or along the La. coast west of the spill area.



Jason Brooks
 
I just posted a fairly detailed discussion over on my site about the current state of Invest 97 along with the future prospects. Not a forecast by any means but it does include graphics that some might find interesting.

You can find the discussion here.
 
Good day all,

richhorodner said:
... but tropical storms, or even minimal hurricanes have developed and existed in high shear situations like this in the past.
Click to expand...

It is highly dependant on WHERE the upper shear is interacting with the low-level system. A little shear is actually GOOD for storm "venting".

Hurricane Wilma back in 2005 was a highly sheared storm, but the shear was in a clockwise arc over the northern part of the hurricane's edge, fostering intensification (with a WELL developed hurricane core across FL).

In this case, we have a TUTT low (upper-level low over the tropics) and a developing system in the lower levels to it's southeast. Only time will tell how this shear affects the system (in a degrading or enhancing aspect).

As per NHC, their 11 AM advisory may have a tropical cyclone statement on it and be showing a TD (or even a tropical storm). The name will be Bonnie.

Track brings it near the FL Keys late Friday. It will enter the Gulf of Mexico, and that can be a "bull in a china shop".
 
David Reimer said:
I just posted a fairly detailed discussion over on my site about the current state of Invest 97 along with the future prospects. Not a forecast by any means but it does include graphics that some might find interesting.

You can find the discussion here.
Click to expand...

Good read. I'll be looking for your follow ups in the coming days on this system.
 
Bonnie is an interesting system to say the least. She has struggled all week against moderate to sometimes high shear, due to an upper low to her west. But despite the shear, she maintained a mid level circulation the whole time, which is why she is not a tropical storm.

The shear is relaxing a little, which is why we have a TS. It will relax a bit more over the next couple days as the upper low moves further away from Bonnie. But it won't be enough to allow significant strengthening. However, it's interesting that a strong ridge will build over the southern U.S./Gulf this weekend, helping the slow strengthening process.

Hopefully this won't cause to many problems concerning the oil spill in the Gulf. BTW, does anyone have any idea how airborne chemicals disperse over distance and time, especially with a tropical system?

I've been writing comments and updates all week on my blog.
 
Looks like Bonnie will pass over south Florida. If it weren't for her fast motion, she'd definitely weaken to a tropical depression over land. But, we'll see what she looks like once over the Gulf. Wind shear doesn't want to give up much, so it may be an uphill battle from here on out to maintain tropical storm status. We'll see though. The shear should relax somewhat tomorrow...
 
Bonnie (S FL / Miami-Dade) 11 AM Landfall...

Good day all,

Completed a "minor" intercept on tropical storm "bonnie" in S Florida this morning. Chase log is below...

bonn10.jpg


July 23, 9 AM - 1 PM - Observation of tropical storm Bonnie in Miami-Dade County coastal and inland areas in Florida. This tropical storm was a minimal tropical storm, with a poorly defined center, and maximum sustained winds of 40-MPH. The storm was observed near the coast at Miami Beach and its circulation center about 15 miles south of Miami and Kendall. Heavy rains, occasional lightning, and winds gusting to near 50-MPH were observed in this tropical system. The tropical storm developed from a tropical wave a day earlier over the SE Bahamas and the storm made landfall in extreme south FL as it moved to the west and northwest. An upper air low imparted shear on the NW part of the tropical system, causing it to remain a weak tropical storm. A calm and partly cloudy area with light winds was noted near the circulation center of the tropical storm. Damage was minimal, mainly small tree branches, and some street flooding was noted. Traffic and accidents made for an extremely frustrating chase, with travel times to Miami (from Fort Lauderdale) near TWO hours (a distance of about 20 miles)! Ocean waves in the 5-7 foot range and tides a foot or so above normal were observed near the beach. . A 2009 Ford Escape was used to chase the storms. Documentation was digital stills. A tropical storm warning was also valid for the area(s) observed.

Full chase log is ALSO at the link below...

http://www.sky-chaser.com/bonn10.htm
 
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