Accuweather begins issuing 90-day weather forecasts

[Jake Orosi]

And real scientists are not amused

In a recent interview with NPR, AccuWeather Founder and President Joel Myers defended the practice, saying: "If we didn't have the statistics to show that the forecast—and here's the measure of what the value is—it's got to be more accurate statistically than you can come up with by using past normals and whatever climatology that you have, and it does."

This has not mollified forecasters, who realize that their credibility is at risk when people are checking for a weather forecast 90 days from now. Meteorologist Dan Satterfield, who writes about atmospheric science for the American Geophysical Union, summed up how most forecasters feel about this latest innovation. "These forecasts are actually even worse than the Farmer’s Almanac, since they give rain chances and temperatures for exact points months into the future!" he wrote. "This kind of thing should be condemned and if you have an AccuWeather app on your smart phone, my advice is to stand up for science and replace it."

I just....really don't know what to say about this.

I'm not opposed to the idea or existence of private weather companies. I think The Weather Channel does pretty good work for example, despite plenty of constructive criticism that can be given about some of its choices and ideas. But then you run into outfits like Accuweather and this...it's just incredible. It's not the first time I've been blown away by boneheadedness from Accuweather, but it takes the top prize in the You've-Got-To-Be-Kidding category.

 

[Nick Wilkes]

I think this is just too much! I am not condoning this in any way but Nate Johnson on last week's episode of Weatherbrains did have a good reason as to why they are doing it. Ad revenue... If you have something planned on say July 20th, and you go onto see what the weather is, you're going to go on every day to see if it changed (which we all know it will)... So that will be bringing more ad revenue.... So, as a business and money making standpoint it makes sense, but as a meteorology standpoint, it is just completely ridiculous.

 

[Randy Jennings]

We should all rush to nominate AccuWeather for the Fields Medal and Abel Prize for figuring out how to solve chaotic partial differential equations exactly. Numerical weather modeling has been plagued for years with the problems of error doubling every few days. An achievement of this gratitude deserves a reward.

 

[MClarkson]

I agree with Nick. They definitely are the laughing stock of the weather community, but if it makes them money from the masses, thats all they care about.

 

[Warren Faidley]

This reminds me of the period when live radar became popular on TV. First there was "Live Eye" then "Super Live Eye 2000," then Ultra Storm Warn 3D Super Eye" and so on. So if I was betting man, TWC is in a secret meeting today to discuss 120 day forecasts. (I'm still waiting for them to start naming large hail stones).

Seriously, AW is likely going to simply use NCEP data. And regardless, who is going to remember a forecast that far out if it busts.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Since they want to make money, and issuing 90 day forecasts will make them money, case closed.

As far as any legitimate scientific aspect of this - ignore it and move on to other things.