Jeff Hawkins
EF3
I thought I'd post this to assist other noob forecasters with reading the medium/long range forecast models of the GFS. Apologies up front if this has been covered elsewhere, please add links to the other threads if it has, thanks!
So I guess I'm showing my old-school tech savvy here...I'm sure someone's got an app or something more trippy that will calculate this quicker and easier...I'm just old fashioned (relatively speaking) LOL...
I don't know about anyone else, but for me one of the challenges of learning forecasting is to read the GFS medium/long range computer models and which ones are of the 7 pm CDT time slot (few things worse than looking at a map and suddenly figuring out your looking at a 7AM or a 1PM map forecast).
So after going over the numbers in my head multiple times over the last 2 years and getting tired of it, I finally sat down and put together this simple grid to show which hours to look at, depending on the run (00, 06, 12, 18). I checked my math and believe it's correct. If not, please let me (us) know so it can be corrected. You are welcome to copy/paste it for personal use if you like. (sorry for any formatting alignment problems...seems copy/paste of text or .odt documents alters the column alignment).
7 pm CDT for GFS forecasts
GFS run: 00 06 12 18
____________________________________________________________
Day 0 0 +18 +12 +6 (day of forecast)
Day +1 24 +42 +36 +30
Day +2 48 +66 +60 +54
Day +3 72 +90 +84 +78
Day +4 96 +114 +108 +102
Day +5 120 +138 +132 +126
Day +6 144 +162 +156 +150
Day +7 168 +186** +180 +174
***********
Day 8 192 +210** +204 +198**
Day 9 216 +234** +228 +222**
Day 10 240 +258** +252 +246**
Day 11 264 +282** +276 +270**
Day 12 288 +306** +300 +294**
Day 13 312 +330** +324 +318**
Day 14 336 +354** +348 +342**
***********
Day 15 360 +378** +372 +366**
Day 16 384 +402*** +396*** +390***
** no equivalent 7pm map for this forecast, either +/- 6 hours
*** GFS doesn't forecast out this far.
So I guess I'm showing my old-school tech savvy here...I'm sure someone's got an app or something more trippy that will calculate this quicker and easier...I'm just old fashioned (relatively speaking) LOL...
I don't know about anyone else, but for me one of the challenges of learning forecasting is to read the GFS medium/long range computer models and which ones are of the 7 pm CDT time slot (few things worse than looking at a map and suddenly figuring out your looking at a 7AM or a 1PM map forecast).
So after going over the numbers in my head multiple times over the last 2 years and getting tired of it, I finally sat down and put together this simple grid to show which hours to look at, depending on the run (00, 06, 12, 18). I checked my math and believe it's correct. If not, please let me (us) know so it can be corrected. You are welcome to copy/paste it for personal use if you like. (sorry for any formatting alignment problems...seems copy/paste of text or .odt documents alters the column alignment).
7 pm CDT for GFS forecasts
GFS run: 00 06 12 18
____________________________________________________________
Day 0 0 +18 +12 +6 (day of forecast)
Day +1 24 +42 +36 +30
Day +2 48 +66 +60 +54
Day +3 72 +90 +84 +78
Day +4 96 +114 +108 +102
Day +5 120 +138 +132 +126
Day +6 144 +162 +156 +150
Day +7 168 +186** +180 +174
***********
Day 8 192 +210** +204 +198**
Day 9 216 +234** +228 +222**
Day 10 240 +258** +252 +246**
Day 11 264 +282** +276 +270**
Day 12 288 +306** +300 +294**
Day 13 312 +330** +324 +318**
Day 14 336 +354** +348 +342**
***********
Day 15 360 +378** +372 +366**
Day 16 384 +402*** +396*** +390***
** no equivalent 7pm map for this forecast, either +/- 6 hours
*** GFS doesn't forecast out this far.