6/17/06 NOW: KS / OK / TX

[Dan Dawson]

Thought I'd start a now thread now that we have initiation. The storms currently in SW OK have yet to head into the best instability and shear, so I would expect an upswing in intensity as they move further NE. We are getting ready to head out the door. I'm not really enthusiastic about our chances, but it's close and worth a look. Good luck to anyone who is going out today.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Parked here at a hotel in Wichita Falls off I-44 looking at data and the convection that has gone up.
This really is all disconcering b/c its only 2:30 and stuff is firing just about everywhere. So theres really no capping at all. Gonna sit here for a bit and see what happens before I commit to a decision whether to stay on tail end charlie or boogie north to OK.

 

[evan anderson]

I'm sitting just SE of Lamesa, TX (on 87) watching something grow overhead. It wasn't much an hour go - basically stationary. Dew Point here is 59f and temp is mid 90s.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Had a very brief landspout looking NW from Elliot TX earlier. Not anything to write home about. I am watching the cell right now North of Frederick but it seems to be dying out. I am gonna head toward the tail end Hardeman storm which is much more isolated. I can see it from this location and doesnt look too impressive but will take a closer look.
By the time i get ther eit should be in vERNON AREA


ke5hza
Jay

 

[Dan Robinson]

Storms in N. TX and SW OK are stationary and laying down circular outflow boundaries visible on radar.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Sitting here at Super 8 in Vernon right off 287 looking at data and only thing I have to say is everything CRAP and gusting out.
Shear is not all that great either, modest at best and i think someone mentioned earlier dews are only merginal at best and surface temps way high leading to high T/Td depressions which means high base and downbursts. This is all Crap.
Watch out those of you down here, according to latest SPC MD theres going to be explosive development in this area that will be a S/SEWD moving MCS

EDIT: moved to Best Western for better connection (for those in area)

 

[Dan Dawson]

An interesting storm near Anadarko now, with a weak cyclonic meso on the SW flank coupled with weak anticyclonic rotation on its NW flank. Considering going out after it (didn't end up going out earlier after all). Talking with Jeff Snyder now also about new development along the front in NW OK near the Major/Blaine Cty line. The 4.5 km WRF was showing some discrete action along the front developing around this time. If so, it would move into a still fairly unstable airmass in NW OK and an area favoring anticyclonic supercell structures.

 

[nickgrillo]

It pretty much looks to be another mess of convection again today (once again owed to large-scale lifting and not enough of an inversion to begin with). Current SPC mesoanalysis shows moderate CAPE across much of OK (e.g. 1000-2000j/kg) invof main convective band with the overall ambient deep-layer kinematic profiles very marginal for sustained supercells -- based on RUC-derived hodographs (e.g. ~25-30kts of 0-6km shear) which show moderate anti-cyclonic curvature (as noted earlier in the FCST thread) owed to weak CAA in the boundary layer. In additon, the cloudcover associated with the convective-cluster has served to slightly stablize the upstream airmass (with the latest RUC mesoanalysis showing a strengthening trend in CINH across much of OK) -- which will further decrease the potential for any tornadic activity. I guess you could just hope for additional storms which develop further west of the current crap to interact with outflows left from interveaning convection (i.e. a source of locally enhanced low-level vorticity).

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Storm spotters confirming a tornado 10 miles North of Mineral Wells, TX.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Storm spotters confirming a tornado 10 miles North of Mineral Wells, TX.
[/b]

The tornado is moving south at 5 mph. (only 5 miles per hour? that is slow!)

THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK BY 845 PM

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Just got home here in SE Parker Co. and had to haul b/c the foreward propagating MCS was on my butt.
But NWS FWD has just issued a TORNADO WARNING for NW Parker Co./NE Palo Pinto Co. for an isolated supercell over town of Perrin, TX. IT IS HOOKED

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Just got home here in SE Parker Co. and had to haul b/c the foreward propagating MCS was on my butt.
But NWS FWD has just issued a TORNADO WARNING for NW Parker Co./NE Palo Pinto Co. for an isolated supercell over town of Perrin, TX. IT IS HOOKED
[/b]

SORRY I DIDNT CALL YA CHRIS. DIDNT GET YOUR MESSAGE TILL NOW.
iM HELD UP IN MEGARGEL WATCHIN sunset and mammatus with rainbow and ligthtning. Been the best part of the chase lol

Jay

 

[Chris Vagasky]

Apparently around 7:25 today on a strong storm (no warnings on it) in Garfield County, there was a "tornado" according to the Emergency Manager -- I would have to say that it was probably a landspout. I wasn't out chasing today though, so I couldn't say.

 

[Jay McCoy]

Great catch Scott. Talk about the proverbial "needle in a haystack". And it was also one of the better looking tornadoes of this season. I am sure many chasers are kicking themselves for missing this one.

Incredible RFD notch and all. I dont think was some basic landspout. It was a full blown tornado.


**I would however either post this in "Reports" or have an admin move it since you are the only one who has a report from yesterday.