5/1/06 FCST - OK/AR/MO/IL/IN/KY/TN

[Nick Parker]

With SPC having the area in a hatched tornado potential, figured this was a good time to start a thread. (May need to change this to a NOW soon) MDT risk looking like a good posibility. Clouds are starting to break around here. Could be an interestng day. Luck to all!
Nick

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

SPC summary: Frontal boundary setting up from IA down through MO and into central OK, observed from 14Z metars, and to move slowly eastward through the afternoon as a shortwave disturbance exits from CO. As weak shortwave ridging develops over the MS valley this afternoon, conditions should become favorable for supercell development as shears increase and boundary layer moisture becomes sufficient ahead of the frontal boundary.

Dewpoints already getting into the low 60's on up into NRN AK; LZK showing strong 1 and 3 km SRH at 260 and 430, respectively, with 0-6 km shear at 38 kts (not great but enough to get updrafts rotating). 12z RUC developing storms in ERN and SERN MO around 21z associated with CAPEs at most 1500 J/kg, 0-3 km helicities around 200 m2/s2, and dewpoints near the mid 60s.

Other interesting notes: SR Winds at 1km anticipated from the SE at 30 kts, weaker flows from the west at 5 and 10 km at 20 knts at most; anvil level winds aren't impressively strong as well. Lapse rates around 6.5 km (like moist adiabatic). RUC 12z sounding from KFAM at 21z illustrating 170 m2/s2 SRH at 0-3, 155 from 0-2. 0-6 km shear at 45 kts. Values increase to between 200-250 m2/s2 at 00z for SRH. Conditions similar if not better at Poplar Bluff.

Targeting the SERN MO region but sitting to see how things develop. Don't see any reason to pass things up with the close proximity and one of the few days I'll have off for the next several weeks. We'll have to wait and see what happens.

All information gathered from WxCaster (KFAM and KPOF are investigated sounding sites, 12z RUC, 12z NAM)

EDIT: my apologies, didn't notice a topic was posted during my writing, can someone merge this for me please?