3/30/08 NOW: OK

[Lance Maxwell]

Rapid intensification of two discrete cells just south of Clinton, OK has prompted issuance of a Tornado Watch for Western Oklahoma.

 

[Marko Korosec]

The cell just west of New Cordell, OK quickly got severe warned. Wow that was fast! Coming into juicy area with SBCAPE 3000 at least. I do expect tornado warning on it quite soon.

The convergence was very well visible on the radar over the last hour.

EDIT: Nickel size hail already reported from the first cell, severe thunderstorm warning issued for southern cell as well now.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

I was fairly surprised that the convection broke through so soon. The possible gravity wave we were talking about earlier today hasnt reached OKC yet according to satellite imagery.
Looking at OK Mesonet data in WeatherScope, I'm fairly optimistic for some decent supercells in western and central Oklahoma, especially between I40 and Enid where the surface winds have backed the most near the low.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Northern cell south of Clinton in the beginning stages of becoming a supercell. Its just undergone a split and wouldnt be surprised to see this cell start rotating pretty soon. Looks like its on some sort of boundary thats showing up on radar unless thats the dryline bulge?

 

[Scott Lincoln]

I do expect tornado warning on it quite soon.

Are you basing this on the environment or the radar?

The storm is nice on radar, but not THAT impressive. Rotation is still at the midlevels and there is only very weak shear at best in the lowest scans. Going by environment, I'd say its possible for it to become a tornadic supercell if it gets better rooted and splits off the east of its current motion.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

It just split Scott within the last 5 min. Showing up on radar now. Cell that split is on the NNW end of the main body of the storm attm. Storm is just exploding on the vis sat. Showing a mature anvil with overshooting top. The bulge just SW of Enid looks tasty attm. I cant wait to see what gets going north of these current cells after dark with this mid-level wave moving threw and the LLJ cranking up here in the next 4 hours.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Are you basing this on the environment or the radar?

I was based on radar scans, as Jordan already said, the beginning of split was evident awhile ago. We'll see how it behaves now...

As already mentioned, looks pretty impressive on VIS satellite.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Hmmm, yes it sure did split. Still not rotating any below 10,000ft that I can see. I think the lower level support is there, just give it some time and we'll probably see some better organization in the cell.

The storms are forming on the dryline, so I'm pretty sure that is what is showing up on radar. On the Vance AFB site you can see the dryline, along with some other feature that I dont think is the dryline. Perhaps its that outflow or gravity wave that was being discussed earlier in the day. Its starting to collide with the dryline near Fairview.

EDIT: not sure if its a figment of the radar but there is quite the low level couplet, also corresponds to the mid levels where there is very tight shear, over 80knots!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

It looks like there is an outflow boundary that is moving west off the convection in northeast Texas and western Arkansas/Louisiana. If these storms hit that it may enhance low level shear.

:edit: Oops, didn't see the mention of this feature in the forecast thread.

 

[Mike Smith]

TVS north of Granite

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Have we got anyone near New Cordell that can look off to the northwest? I'd really like to know if thats just a bit of radar noise or not. If something is going on, then that would have been quite the low level rotation increase.

EDIT: I dont see it on this most current scan, so it probably was just noise.

That storm east of Sentinel, OK, just underwent a merger and its MEHS just jumped to over 4" in GR2AE... yikes! This corresponded to a nearly 10,000ft jump in the 62dbz height. Also looks like the southern supercell might be hinting at a DRC depending on what isosurface cutoff you use in the volume.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Scott ive had my eye on this feature as well. We could be witnessing the development of the mesocyclone with this storm. No evidence of any RFD yet but as soon as that gets going its only a matter of time. Yeah thats definetly a couplet on the SW part of the storm... unless its about to split again. Any chance if the precip keeps expanding in size to the sw will we see the cell just south of Clinton begin to weaken or will the outflow help this storm get going faster? Id bet my money that the cell in extreme NE Greer Co will be the first to go tornado warn. Showing the strongest sigs of rotation and is the tail end of this cluster of cells. This is alot like how the Greensburg event start. Cluster of cells fired and the tail end comes out on top.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

TVS north of Granite

I'm not getting the same signature with the GR2AE MDA, but the rotation definitely did become surface based. Seems to be about 40-50knots of shear. Lightning also seems to have picked up a bit in the WER.

I'm surprised that they are only mentioning 2" hail in the warning text. Over 75dbz now nearing the surface and MEHS still near 4.0". I guess its possible there could be some heavy wet, small hail in there instead of big stones.

 

[David Drummond]

I am west of hobart right now with a rapidly rotating wall cloud live on my streaming cam. Linked on my website in my sig or on severestudios.com

 

[David Schuttler]

Watch D.Drummond live video on one of them
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase