Ben Holcomb
EF5
A small little event tomorrow in Arkansas. A neutral tilt, compact jet slamming into the high over south florida. A decent low level response will bring up an extremely moisture-rich air mass from the gulf. 00Z LCH and LIX are showing a pretty moist column under 3km.
NAM and HRRR guidance show a warm front advancing north to around I-30/I-40 through Arkansas and TN. Both models are showing dewpoints near 70F especially pooling along the warm front. While I've seen some subsidence in the soundings, both models are blowing up storms along the 30/40 cooridor.
It seems like low level shear/helicity is somewhat sub optimal for tornadoes, but hopefully it will be enhanced along the warm front. Definitely think there will be something tomorrow. Hoping for some storms along the Delta.
NAM and HRRR guidance show a warm front advancing north to around I-30/I-40 through Arkansas and TN. Both models are showing dewpoints near 70F especially pooling along the warm front. While I've seen some subsidence in the soundings, both models are blowing up storms along the 30/40 cooridor.
It seems like low level shear/helicity is somewhat sub optimal for tornadoes, but hopefully it will be enhanced along the warm front. Definitely think there will be something tomorrow. Hoping for some storms along the Delta.