Dan Robinson
EF5
Figured it was time to start a thread for this day since we've had a number of sub-180 hour model runs on it.
GFS shows a narrow zone of barely-60s dewpoints pooling along a dryline from the TX/OK border into southern South Dakota, with the primary surface low along the SD/NE border at 00z. All while a 60 knot midlevel jet in the midst of broader zone of 30-40kt SW flow moves out over Kansas.
The past few operational runs of the GFS have kept everything but SD capped. An EML around 800mb is shown temporarily eroding some around 00z, but not quite enough to allow storms to initiate south of the SD/NE border. If a storm can go and maintain south of the SD border down into TX/OK, the environment would support supercells. Limiting the tornado potential in these areas is the cap closing back up after 00z along with some apparent mixing causing the dewpoints to take a several-degree hit through the evening.
The current model depictions show the dryline bulge in south-central South Dakota as the most likely environment for daytime tornadoes. Despite weaker midlevel flow, plenty of storms are shown breaking out here, but it could be an early show with the low-level lapse rates peaking out at 21z.
With the main jet streak nosing in, Kansas appears to have the best overall kinematic environment if a storm can go up, but as it's shown right now getting a storm there may be difficult.
Still lots of time for many of these details to change.
GFS shows a narrow zone of barely-60s dewpoints pooling along a dryline from the TX/OK border into southern South Dakota, with the primary surface low along the SD/NE border at 00z. All while a 60 knot midlevel jet in the midst of broader zone of 30-40kt SW flow moves out over Kansas.
The past few operational runs of the GFS have kept everything but SD capped. An EML around 800mb is shown temporarily eroding some around 00z, but not quite enough to allow storms to initiate south of the SD/NE border. If a storm can go and maintain south of the SD border down into TX/OK, the environment would support supercells. Limiting the tornado potential in these areas is the cap closing back up after 00z along with some apparent mixing causing the dewpoints to take a several-degree hit through the evening.
The current model depictions show the dryline bulge in south-central South Dakota as the most likely environment for daytime tornadoes. Despite weaker midlevel flow, plenty of storms are shown breaking out here, but it could be an early show with the low-level lapse rates peaking out at 21z.
With the main jet streak nosing in, Kansas appears to have the best overall kinematic environment if a storm can go up, but as it's shown right now getting a storm there may be difficult.
Still lots of time for many of these details to change.
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