Jared Orr
EF1
I will go ahead and start a thread for Saturday, since I will likely be able to chase this event. It’s looking like another modest setup in the plains. But “modest is hottest”. Not sure if that applies to weather as much as women. But we’ll go with it.
Our models paint a dreary picture for the southern target. Convection ongoing in the morning will limit buoyancy later in the day (as we have been seeing with many other setups), PW is high (approaching 1.8”), 500mb flow rate is dramatically decreased east of the TX panhandle leading to weak anvil relative winds. See below.
All of this along with little-to-no cap spell out messy storm modes with embedded HPs. For those who “speak SPC”, probably 5% tornado probs for these areas, and not the good kind of 5%.
Elsewhere, there is some hope along the dryline in Kansas, with some instability present. But I clicked on this area in Nexlab, looked at the hodograph, and noticed something fascinating...
If you print the SW KS Hodograph and hold it up to a mirror, this is what you will see:
I wanted to use a different word.
Further north is where my chase team will probably be banking on. After arriving late for all of that “Colorado Magic” a few Saturdays ago --with rainbow-nados and crap-- I swore I would never let 50F dew points and cold mountain air keep me from this region again. I’m still healing.
Joking aside, I really like the fact that there may be a little cap present in this area to hold things off until late afternoon. I also like the backed surface winds along the warm front and the fact that "convective precip" on high res and low res models shows a nice cluster of storms forming along said front in response to surface forcing. A lot of variation exists between the GFS and NAM with regard to where the front will be situated. But if it plays out how I think it will, NE Colorado and W Nebraka will have some tornado reports.
That’s my quick, rough forecast. Now discuss.
Our models paint a dreary picture for the southern target. Convection ongoing in the morning will limit buoyancy later in the day (as we have been seeing with many other setups), PW is high (approaching 1.8”), 500mb flow rate is dramatically decreased east of the TX panhandle leading to weak anvil relative winds. See below.
![11263012_1176120782401867_6573000979369120405_n.jpg](/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fscontent-atl1-1.xx.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-xta1%2Fv%2Ft1.0-9%2F11263012_1176120782401867_6573000979369120405_n.jpg%3Foh%3D417d42771bf890a8cc3226e3d0494fce%26oe%3D55F89976&hash=142df551f8042376b69541424c4d7a3c)
All of this along with little-to-no cap spell out messy storm modes with embedded HPs. For those who “speak SPC”, probably 5% tornado probs for these areas, and not the good kind of 5%.
Elsewhere, there is some hope along the dryline in Kansas, with some instability present. But I clicked on this area in Nexlab, looked at the hodograph, and noticed something fascinating...
If you print the SW KS Hodograph and hold it up to a mirror, this is what you will see:
![10405344_1176120615735217_8434755538014464381_n.jpg](/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fscontent-atl1-1.xx.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-xpa1%2Fv%2Ft1.0-9%2F10405344_1176120615735217_8434755538014464381_n.jpg%3Foh%3D2e2762cec5786f7fe68469daaa8b4974%26oe%3D5608A471&hash=b49b004d1b92821a039eee8a580433fc)
I wanted to use a different word.
Further north is where my chase team will probably be banking on. After arriving late for all of that “Colorado Magic” a few Saturdays ago --with rainbow-nados and crap-- I swore I would never let 50F dew points and cold mountain air keep me from this region again. I’m still healing.
Joking aside, I really like the fact that there may be a little cap present in this area to hold things off until late afternoon. I also like the backed surface winds along the warm front and the fact that "convective precip" on high res and low res models shows a nice cluster of storms forming along said front in response to surface forcing. A lot of variation exists between the GFS and NAM with regard to where the front will be situated. But if it plays out how I think it will, NE Colorado and W Nebraka will have some tornado reports.
That’s my quick, rough forecast. Now discuss.