2014-2-10 Dallas/Ft Worth winter weather

[Brian McWatters]

There were multiple traffic accidents, one causing a fatality, due to icy roads in Dallas County and Tarrant County, Texas on Monday night starting around 6 PM. But until 9:54 PM there was no winter weather advisory in effect for those counties. The counties just north of Dallas had been under a freezing rain advisory since 2:31 PM. It seems like this event could have been forecast better.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/weather/Wintry-mix-headed-to-North-Texas-244644371.html
http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/dallas/Witness-recounts-accident-that-killed-Dallas-firefighter-245010031.html

"There was a fatal accident involving a Dallas firefighter who fell from an icy overpass along Walton Walker Boulevard in Southwest Dallas around 8:30 p.m."

"The MedStar ambulance service in Tarrant County reported responding to 32 motor vehicle crashes between 6 p.m. and 9:30 p.m."

Below are the advisories that were in effect for the Dallas area on Monday.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EASTLAND TO WEATHERFORD TO MCKINNEY LINE...
...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY...
ON-AND-OFF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EASTLAND TO WEATHERFORD TO MCKINNEY LINE. ICY ROAD CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THIS AREA AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH. ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY A THIN GLAZE OF ICE BUT SECONDARY ROADS COULD ALSO SEE SLICK SPOTS BY THE MORNING COMMUTE.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
954 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY FOR ALL OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
ON AND OFF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ICY ROAD CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF A HAMILTON...TO DALLAS...TO PARIS LINE WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MID MORNING TUESDAY...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EVOLVE INTO A WINTER MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVEN SNOW FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED THE MOST BY A GLAZE OF ICE...HOWEVER ALL ROADS AND HIGHWAYS COULD SEE SLICK AREAS DURING BOTH THE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTES.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The toll is up to 4 from this event in Texas alone:

http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Icy-Conditions-Delay-Schools-Drivers-244851551.html

 

[Shane Adams]

Maybe I just pay attention, but IMO this was forecast quite well. There's such a fine between "advisory" and "warning" and whatnot. Basically, if you live in a place like TX and there's any mention of possible "wintery mix" or anything of the kind in the forecast (which there was for days leading up to Monday), pay attention. When there's been moisture on the ground all day and temps fall below freezing, it shouldn't take a blue box instead of a pink one to get someone's attention. This is another example (with winter weather) of people needing to be more personally accountable for their own weather safety. Is it night time? Was the ground wet all day? Are you on an overpass or side road? Is the temperature below freezing? These are all great indicators that one should drive with extra caution.

I spent days watching this forecast unfold, wondering if we'd actually see anything significant. "Slick spots" and "bridges and overpasses" were mentioned over and over. I don't understand how anyone can say this was not forecast well. In reality, as winter weather systems go, it was barely a whisper. I think the more accurate analysis would be "in a place better-prepared for winter weather this wouldn't even have been an issue."

 

[Brian McWatters]

There's such a fine between "advisory" and "warning" and whatnot.

You missed my point. Prior to 9:54 PM Monday, neither an advisory nor a warning was in effect for Tarrant and Dallas counties. Yet by 8:30 PM on the bridge where the fatality occurred in southwest Dallas, a witness said "There was just so much ice you could not walk." And there were dozens of traffic accidents in Tarrant County before an advisory was issued there. This was a widespread event.

The forecast for Dallas and Tarrant counties that was issued at 3:11 PM Monday said "patchy light freezing drizzle in the evening [Monday]". So frozen precipitation was forecast, but clearly the severity of the event was not forecast in a timely manner.

 

[Shane Adams]

You missed my point. Prior to 9:54 PM Monday, neither an advisory nor a warning was in effect for Tarrant and Dallas counties. Yet by 8:30 PM on the bridge where the fatality occurred in southwest Dallas, a witness said "There was just so much ice you could not walk." And there were dozens of traffic accidents in Tarrant County before an advisory was issued there. This was a widespread event.

The forecast for Dallas and Tarrant counties that was issued at 3:11 PM Monday said "patchy light freezing drizzle in the evening [Monday]". So frozen precipitation was forecast, but clearly the severity of the event was not forecast in a timely manner.

I understand your point, which is exactly what I was making my point off of: To anyone who was paying attention days in advance or bothered to look out a window at the wet surfaces and see the temps were at or below freezing, this was no mystery. Winter weather events are seldom forecast perfectly, if that's the criteria. They are probably the most difficult to forecast, especially for NWSFOs in regions that aren't affected by them as often as others.

I get that technically the advisory or whatever wasn't in effect, but I saw patches of ice all over on my morning commute, I knew the ground was wet, and I knew the temps would hover just around or below freezing. Maybe I'm more aware than the average person, I don't know, but IMO that doesn't excuse the complacency of the general population. To see an eyewitness talk about how much ice there was on an overpass (if the attitude was "we had no warning") is ridiculous. It was obvious to anyone with eyes and skin how wet and cold it was.

Again, maybe I just pay close attention, but IMO there was nothing surprising about any ice accumulation on elevated surfaces...and I was never aware of whether an advisory was in effect or not. I don't need color graphics when I have my five senses and common sense.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Unfortunately, just like with tornadoes and flooding, many people for whatever reason don't have that common sense with weather hazards, and need an extra hint or two before they'll take it seriously. I agree that winter events are difficult to forecast, but most of the time icing is apparent via surface obs before it begins affecting roads/bridges. There is usually enough lead time to warn via normal channels. The problem is that it's not current NWS policy or practice to treat sub-criteria icing with anything more than a SPS, so in many cases their hands are tied for what they can do.

 

[Brandon Jenkins]

I also thought the event was well forecast despite some timing issues with the start of precip which is always a variable with winter events. I'm also not convinced that anything would have played out differently had the advisory actually been in effect at the time of these accidents. Local news outlets were timely in disseminating information and most everyone knew or should have known to expect icing on elevated surfaces. Overconfidence and inattentiveness is the number one issue with these events imo.