Royce Sheibal
EF3
Normally on a day with no slights on the SPC map I wouldn't give this a second look, but...
Its currently about 830AM and we've already got nickel size hail possible from morning convection near Hastings, NE. I'm not sure of the dynamics behind this, but from a historical standpoint, many of the best tornado days in NE are preceded by fresh morning convection either not related to or to the south of a morning MCS, so today caught my eye.
SPC says in their wording they are considering upgrade to slight, but tornado risk still seems small...but perhaps not. NAM is currently forecasting 3000 cape, low cin, and almost 300 0-1 SRH at 0z from a Hastings, NE to Omaha line. Keep in mind that the NAM's forecast for dewpoints is way too low. We're sitting with DP's in the high 60's right now, while the forecast was high 50's. Precip water will be very high today, and LCL's are <1000. GFS pushes the front a bit further south and caps everything, but I haven't had much faith in GFS lately.
Call me crazy, but I think we could get some decent supercells in the SW corner of NE/ ne CO, and perhaps one or two mini-supercell tors in central/east NE. The 12Z NAM should hit soon and we'll have a better picture.
UPDATE: Dew points north of the front have dropped drastically in the last couple of hours (down 10 deg) and the front has pushed even further south than the GFS predicted. Elevated convection will likely continue north of I-80, and the LLJ may blow up some storms after dark, but I think the cold front has totally killed most of our severe chances, even further SW in CO/KS where T-Td spreads are getting huge.
Report: Managed to get 1 tornado report out of Eastern Colorado, go figure!
Its currently about 830AM and we've already got nickel size hail possible from morning convection near Hastings, NE. I'm not sure of the dynamics behind this, but from a historical standpoint, many of the best tornado days in NE are preceded by fresh morning convection either not related to or to the south of a morning MCS, so today caught my eye.
SPC says in their wording they are considering upgrade to slight, but tornado risk still seems small...but perhaps not. NAM is currently forecasting 3000 cape, low cin, and almost 300 0-1 SRH at 0z from a Hastings, NE to Omaha line. Keep in mind that the NAM's forecast for dewpoints is way too low. We're sitting with DP's in the high 60's right now, while the forecast was high 50's. Precip water will be very high today, and LCL's are <1000. GFS pushes the front a bit further south and caps everything, but I haven't had much faith in GFS lately.
Call me crazy, but I think we could get some decent supercells in the SW corner of NE/ ne CO, and perhaps one or two mini-supercell tors in central/east NE. The 12Z NAM should hit soon and we'll have a better picture.
UPDATE: Dew points north of the front have dropped drastically in the last couple of hours (down 10 deg) and the front has pushed even further south than the GFS predicted. Elevated convection will likely continue north of I-80, and the LLJ may blow up some storms after dark, but I think the cold front has totally killed most of our severe chances, even further SW in CO/KS where T-Td spreads are getting huge.
Report: Managed to get 1 tornado report out of Eastern Colorado, go figure!
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