2013-08-03 FCST: CO/WY/NE/KS

[Jason Persoff]

Interesting day here on the Front Range of CO (and points north/east). Today is my son's 12th birthday, so I have a secret hope that he'll be able to see his first tornado.

Forecast attention is confined to the Palmer Divide. Highly moist conditions are blowing on SE sfc winds at the moment into the Urban Corridor. As of this writing (18:37z), sfc obs show 83/53 in Denver with even deeper Theta-E moving in as the day moves on. A sfc low currently over DEN should intensify with attendant increasing sfc winds out of the E/SE leading to excellent upslope conditions. 700mb capping is forecast to dissipate early afternoon.

On SAT, a couple of NE/SW oriented, southward propagating OFBs from yesterday appear both north and south of DEN. Radar doesn't pick these up that well at the moment.

Very sluggish 500mb westerlies over the area will mean very slow moving cells. But anvil ventilation should be enhanced by the right entrance region of a moderate 60kt streak at 250mb. Strong SE 850mb winds should provide adequate midlevel moistening and sustain storm growth.

At this time, favor the corridor between I-76 and I-70 (likely Last Chance area) for potential tornadic storms. Here's to hoping for my son's coolest birthday present

.

 

[Jason Persoff]

Well, my son decided a game of laser tag would be more interesting than chasing...c'est la vie--after all, it's his birthday. However, as we head out the door, I discovered that my forecast has indeed verified . A nearly stationary tornado has been confirmed in this location...There's always next time...SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
222 PM MDT SAT AUG 3 2013

COC121-032030-
/O.CON.KBOU.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-130803T2030Z/
WASHINGTON CO-
222 PM MDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 222 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER LAST CHANCE...OR 33 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON...
THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

 

[joel ewing]

You're a good Dad, Jason. Your son is a lucky kid. It had to be tough to sit this day out, especially as more reports began coming in. I had to laugh about your forecast that "verified" around Last Chance. Heck, I've stated in S. Track many times over the years that a guy not knowing anything about how to forecast can simply pitch a tent at either Last Chance or Cheyenne Wells, climb in a take a catnap, and then wake up and start shooting photos when the tornado gets close enough to him! I've never seen anyplace in the alley that is virtually guaranteed to produce tornadoes year after year as either Last Chance or Cheyenne Wells. Well....maybe Okla City.

 

[Jason Persoff]

You're so right Joel--Last Chance and environs were where I cut my chasing teeth. In fact, your comments are also right. Back in 1990 when I started chasing, I didn't have a clue what I was doing, so I'd head down US 36 whenever there was a WW issued for the area. I had no forecasting sense whatsoever, and really no clue what I was doing. Call it fate--my early successes led me to enjoy the richness of forecasting today that, after about 1/2 hr of pouring over charts, provided me with the exact same location I used to go without thinking .

 

[damian butt photography]

Hi Jason

Shame you didn't get the chance to head out over the weekend but plenty of opportunities to come and i sure your son appreciated you taking him out to laser tag . Its funny you mentioned last chance and your story of how you started out chasing. The second storm i ever chased was on June 13th 2013 in Last Chance. Actually had the great fortune of getting a few nice storms out in Colorado this June. What a great area to chase in too. Hoping to get back there again next year. Might see you out there on the road

 

[Bob Schafer]

My first ever "real" chase in 1999 occurred because I saw a lowering under a storm at I-70 and Colorado Blvd. after lunch at "The Riviera" (which used to be a Glendale icon). I chased it out 70 and then 36 beyond Last Chance. So, that corridor holds a real special place in my heart. On June 10 2010 I celebrated my chasing anniversary by seeing the Deer Trail tornado from 36. Earlier that day, at a chaser convergence, I had told some guys "Just get on 36". Met them again the next day in Limon and we had a good laugh about it.

 

[Dave C]

I won't say much, since this is a FCST thread and not for reports, but we were out and many of these storms were quite fickle with messy structure and not very photogenic - I'm not sure you would have seen much. We missed the Washington County tornado near Last Chance because the storm was just sitting on the intersection of 36 and 71 for about 1.5 hours and we didn't feel like core punching, and the dirt roads south of 36 aren't the best to get down near 70 / Limon.

Your forecast was spot on though, as almost all the action was between I-76 and Ft. Morgan area and down to I-70 just north of Limon area. It was not a bad day for August.