Chip Redmond
EF4
ECMWF and GFS agreeing in a almost negatively tilted (more neutral on most recent runs) trough digging into the west coast and ejecting over the Rockies on Monday the 27th with cyclogenisis occurring in Western MT/WY.
The ridge over the eastern half of the US will slowly break down with the progression of a few shortwaves over the weekend helping to deamplify the ridge ahead of the trough. A 500mb jet of ~90kts will propagate around the crest of the low in the day of the 27th allowing for cooler temperatures, steepening lapse rates, and aiding in upper level divergence. SW winds at the 500mb level overlayed with a good low level jet at 850mb of ~30knts will allow for very good turning with height and speed shear, yielding impressive hodographs (I attached one from just east of the MO River in northern SD). Dewpoints of 60F will soar northward into SD and even up to the ND border. A warm front will set up along the boarder, eastward with a dryline dropping south through the western portions of SD, WY, KS. This would place a handsome triple point in the northern portion of SD. If moisture can surge that far north, instability won't be an issue that is for sure. Temperatures will be warm, but not overly warm keeping LCL's low and manageable/breakable cap. There seems to be some hints at early initiation with precip occurring around 18z, but that is still a small detail.
Obviously there are still timing issues with this system as it has sped up from the 0z run, but definitely hints of upper level pattern support for some action early in the week for the North Plains! Definitely a rare occurance for March, but for this odd year of odd patterns, nothing is surprising to me these days. A few other things I would like to see and have concerns for at the moment is the 500mb jet to speed up maybe a bit more and perhaps the dryline to have a better gradient, though these details are small concerns at the time.
If things weren't to change at all, would target a region near north-central SD around 20z.
Chip
The ridge over the eastern half of the US will slowly break down with the progression of a few shortwaves over the weekend helping to deamplify the ridge ahead of the trough. A 500mb jet of ~90kts will propagate around the crest of the low in the day of the 27th allowing for cooler temperatures, steepening lapse rates, and aiding in upper level divergence. SW winds at the 500mb level overlayed with a good low level jet at 850mb of ~30knts will allow for very good turning with height and speed shear, yielding impressive hodographs (I attached one from just east of the MO River in northern SD). Dewpoints of 60F will soar northward into SD and even up to the ND border. A warm front will set up along the boarder, eastward with a dryline dropping south through the western portions of SD, WY, KS. This would place a handsome triple point in the northern portion of SD. If moisture can surge that far north, instability won't be an issue that is for sure. Temperatures will be warm, but not overly warm keeping LCL's low and manageable/breakable cap. There seems to be some hints at early initiation with precip occurring around 18z, but that is still a small detail.
Obviously there are still timing issues with this system as it has sped up from the 0z run, but definitely hints of upper level pattern support for some action early in the week for the North Plains! Definitely a rare occurance for March, but for this odd year of odd patterns, nothing is surprising to me these days. A few other things I would like to see and have concerns for at the moment is the 500mb jet to speed up maybe a bit more and perhaps the dryline to have a better gradient, though these details are small concerns at the time.
If things weren't to change at all, would target a region near north-central SD around 20z.
Chip