10/18/04 NOW: Midwest

At least 4 currently Tornado warned cells have developed in the last couple of hours in east-central and southeast Missouri, with the most impressive storms (on radar at least) being in Washington and Reynolds counties. There also are a couple of T-warned cells in extreme NE Mississippi and NW Alabama on the tail end of some older activity.

Blake Allen
 
Is it just me or does it look like the current cells in the south east corner of Missouri have anvils blowing to the east. They are really blowing. It looks as though any chasers going after these cell may encounter a few LP cells. The anvil SR winds are around 30 to 40 kts in that area and looks as though the cells have just summoned a few tornado warnings. Wish i could be there, looks like the gulf is open for one more day and i get to miss it, boo hoo.
http://spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s2/index2.html
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37c...r/si.knqa.shtml
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/...tiple&itype=vis
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/mo/tornado.html
 
SOME STORM REPORTS:
0421 PM TORNADO 1 N POTOSI 37.95N 90.78W
10/18/2004 WASHINGTON MO TRAINED SPOTTER
*** 6 INJ *** POSSIBLE TORNADO--ENTIRE BUILDING AT THE
POTOSI LUMBER CO WAS DESTROYED.

0435 PM TORNADO MINERAL POINT 37.95N 90.72W
10/18/2004 WASHINGTON MO TRAINED SPOTTER
2 MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED ON HWY E EAST OF POTOSI...AND
MULTIPLE HOMES WITH ROOFS OFF...SAME LOCATION.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLSX/0410182152.nwus53.html

1145 AM TSTM WND DMG 10 N STUTTGART 34.64N 91.55W
10/18/2004 PRAIRIE AR COUNTY OFFICIAL
MAJOR DAMAGAE AT STUTTGART AIRPORT. NUMEROUS HANGERS AND NEARBY MOBILE HOME DESTROYED.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLIT/0410181748.nwus54.html

0920 AM TORNADO HASKELL 34.51N 92.64W
10/18/2004 SALINE AR PUBLIC
REPORTED ALONG WEST CHEYNEY RD. TREES DOWN AND SIDING TORN OFF MOBILE HOMES
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLIT/0410181610.nwus54.html

0741 AM TORNADO HASKELL 34.51N 92.64W
10/18/2004 SALINE AR PUBLIC
REPORTED ALONG WEST CHEYNEY RD. TREES DOWN AND SIDING TORN OFF MOBILE HOMES
Source:http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLIT/0410181609.nwus54.html
Click to expand...
Southeast Missouri is not the greatest for chasing, poor road network and lots of forests. Forested meaning timberland and nonforest land with trees.

Tornado Warned Counties and the Percent of Land Area that is forested.
86 percent forested: Reynolds County
84 percent forested: Iron County
83 percent forested: Washington County
80 percent forested: Wayne County
76 percent forested: Madison County
76 percent forested: Shannon County
68 percent forested: Dent County
56 percent forested: Bollinger County
55 percent forested: Ste Genevieve County
52 percent forested: St. Francois County
48 percent forested: Franklin County
47 percent forested: Gasconade County
41 percent forested: Osage County
39 percent forested: Perry County
26 percent forested: Cape Girardeau County
18 percent forested: Randolph County
07 percent forested: Dunklin County
07 percent forested: Scott County
05 percent forested: Mississippi County
05 percent forested: New Madrid County
03 percent forested: Pemiscot County

Mike
 
New Red Box just issued:
WW 859 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 182205Z - 190300Z
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/WW859.20.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0859.html

0510 PM TORNADO LAFE 36.21N 90.50W
10/18/2004 GREENE AR BROADCAST MEDIA
TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND NEAR LAFE BY MEDIA.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMEM/0410182218.nwus54.html

0455 PM TORNADO FREDERICKTOWN 37.56N 90.30W
10/18/2004 MADISON MO TRAINED SPOTTER
TORNADO SIGHTED ON THE GROUND 1 NORTH OF THE HWY 72/67 INTERSECTION
Source:http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLSX/0410182209.nwus53.html
Click to expand...

Mike
 
There are a couple of very nice supercells currently nearing the MO/IL border... The best-looking storm appears to be be along the Perry/Madison/Rollinger county boundary. There is also another nice meso down in Wayne county, with another, well, there are a couple others.

Current SPC mesoanalysis shows >3500 SBCAPE over se MO and 55kts 0-6km deep-layer shear. In addition, low-level shear remains very strong, with 0-3km SRH generally in the 250-450 m2/s2 area and 0-1km SRH in the 200-350 range in the proximity of the ongoing storms. To make things better, LCLs are generally <1000m. What does this mean? This means that the SPC tornado indices are tweakin' out ... The supercell composite index is in the 10-14 range, with the significant tornado parameters in the impressive 5-8 range. Certainly, the ~450 0-3km SRH seen on the 18z LZK sounding gives a little insight into the highly-shear environment... If cells can remain discrete, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of significant / strong tornadoes. This certainly does look like a significant event, that's for sure. I'm slightly surprised that a MDT risk wasn't issued on the 20z update, as I can't see too many "negatives" for a significant severe weather event.
 
Some sunset times in and close to the watch areas.

SUNSET TIMES:
605 PM CDT: Evansville IN
614 PM CDT: Paducah KY
616 PM CDT: Jackson TN
618 PM CDT: Saint Louis MO
621 PM CDT: Memphis TN
623 PM CDT: Jonesboro AR

Mike
 
0313 AM TORNADO 15 SW WAYNESBORO 35.17N 87.95W
10/19/2004 WAYNE TN PUBLIC
PUBLIC TORNADO REPORTED ON GROUND WEST OF COLLINWOOD.

1244 AM TORNADO LEVI JACKSON WILDERNESS 37.08N 84.04W
10/19/2004 LAUREL KY EMERGENCY MNGR
UNCONFIRMED TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR ENTRANCE OF THE STATE PARK.

912 PM TORNADO 3 W PARIS 36.30N 88.36W
10/18/2004 HENRY TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
PROBABLE TORNADO RIPPED ROOF OF MANUFACTURING BUILDING.

0903 PM TSTM WND DMG DYERSBURG 36.04N 89.38W
10/18/2004 DYER TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
UNCONFIRMED TORNADO WITH DAMAGE TO HOME AND ANOTHER
BUILDING. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

0852 PM TORNADO 6 E HAZEL 36.51N 88.22W
10/18/2004 CALLOWAY KY EMERGENCY MNGR
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KPAH/0410190152.nwus53.html

0828 PM TORNADO 3 N HAZEL 36.55N 88.33W
10/18/2004 CALLOWAY KY EMERGENCY MNGR
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KPAH/0410190134.nwus53.html

0800 PM TORNADO COOTER 36.05N 89.81W
10/18/2004 PEMISCOT MO EMERGENCY MNGR
TORNADO DESTROYED HOME JUST EAST OF COOTER WITH ONE
FATALITY AND THREE MISSING. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMEM/0410190154.nwus54.html

0755 PM TORNADO COOTER 36.05N 89.81W
10/18/2004 PEMISCOT MO EMERGENCY MNGR
*** 3 FATAL, 4 INJ *** TORNADO STRUCK SOUTHEAST PART OF
TOWN AT COTTONWOOD POINT NEAR MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 3
FATALITIES...4 IN HOSPITAL. ALL PERSONS ARE ACCOUNTED
FOR. ONE HOUSE DESTROYED...2 MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED...
SMALL CAMPER TOWED BY TRUCK ALSO DESTROYED.

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE GOREVILLE 37.58N 88.95W
10/18/2004 JOHNSON IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO. 2 TO 3 HOMES DESTROYED AND NUMEROUS
TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE LAKE OF EGYPT VICINITY.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KPAH/0410190109.nwus53.html

0710 PM TORNADO PARAGOULD 36.06N 90.51W
10/18/2004 GREENE AR PUBLIC
2 TORNADOES OBSERVED ON THE GROUND. REPORTED BY PUBLIC.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMEM/0410190027.nwus54.html

0640 PM TORNADO 15 S LAWRENCEBURG 35.03N 87.34W
10/18/2004 F1 LAWRENCE TN TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO DAMAGE ON
HWY 227 SOUTH OF LAWRENCEBURG. DAMAGE RATED F1.

0630 PM TORNADO LESTER 34.99N 87.15W
10/18/2004 LIMESTONE AL TRAINED SPOTTER
NUMEROUS SPOTTER REPORTS OF ROTATION NEAR LESTER.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHUN/0410182333.nwus54.html

0625 PM TORNADO 2 SE MINOR HILL 35.02N 87.15W
10/18/2004 GILES TN TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTS VIA HAM RADIO POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
ALONG HWY 11 NEAR MINOR HILL COMMUNITY. REPORT RECEIVED AT 1829 CDT.

618 PM TORNADO 2 N LEXINGTON 34.99N 87.37W
10/18/2004 LAUDERDALE AL AMATEUR RADIO
DAMAGE TO HOUSE LOCATED CLOSE TO TN STATE LINE NEAR HWY 101.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHUN/0410190005.nwus54.html

0605 PM TORNADO LEXINGTON 34.97N 87.37W
10/18/2004 LAUDERDALE AL AMATEUR RADIO
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TORNADO ON GROUND BETWEEN CENTER HILL AND LEXINGTON.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHUN/0410182313.nwus54.html

0605 PM TORNADO LEXINGTON 34.97N 87.37W
10/18/2004 LAUDERDALE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
TORNADO ON GROUND...CONFIRMED DAMAGE IN AREA.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHUN/0410182308.nwus54.html

0551 PM TORNADO 5 NNW SEDGEWICKVILLE 37.58N 89.94W
10/18/2004 BOLLINGER MO TRAINED SPOTTER
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KPAH/0410182310.nwus53.html

0550 PM TORNADO 10 NE FLORENCE 34.93N 87.54W
10/18/2004 LAUDERDALE AL TRAINED SPOTTER
TORNADO ON THE GROUND 5 MILES N OF HWY 72...NEAR COUNTY RD 31.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHUN/0410182252.nwus54.html

0532 PM TORNADO PEACH ORCHARD 36.28N 90.66W
10/18/2004 CLAY AR LAW ENFORCEMENT
TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMEM/0410182236.nwus54.html

0530 PM TORNADO 10 N FLORENCE 34.97N 87.67W
10/18/2004 LAUDERDALE AL TRAINED SPOTTER
TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR ZIP CITY...NO REPORT OF DAMAGE.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHUN/0410182246.nwus54.html

0516 PM TORNADO BIGGERS 36.33N 90.81W
10/18/2004 RANDOLPH AR LAW ENFORCEMENT
TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND BY LAW ENFORCEMENT
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMEM/0410182225.nwus54.html

0515 PM TORNADO 4 N MARMADUKE 36.25N 90.39W
10/18/2004 GREENE AR TRAINED SPOTTER
TORNADO ON THE GROUND REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMEM/0410182222.nwus54.html

0510 PM TORNADO N FREDERICKTOWN 37.56N 90.30W
10/18/2004 MADISON MO TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAILER PARK DAMAGED...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...HWY-H
BLOCKED BY TREES
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLSX/0410182238.nwus53.html

0510 PM TORNADO CATHERINE PLACE 37.58N 90.32W
10/18/2004 MADISON MO BROADCAST MEDIA
RADIO STATION IN FREDERICKTOWN REPORTED TORNADO NEAR CATHERINE PLACE...
WITNESSES REPORTED SEEING SHEET METAL BEING THROWN INTO THE AIR.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLSX/0410182234.nwus53.html

0505 PM TORNADO 10 NW FLORENCE 34.93N 87.79W
10/18/2004 LAUDERDALE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
*** 3 INJ *** 3 SLIGHTLY INJURED TAKEN TO HOSPITAL...2
TRAILER HOMES DAMAGED...1 ROOF OFF BARN.
Source:http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHUN/0410182243.nwus54.html

0455 PM TORNADO 12 NNW FLORENCE 34.99N 87.75W
10/18/2004 LAUDERDALE AL TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORT TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR COUNTY RD 6 AND
COUNTY RD 9...JUST NORTHWEST OF PETERSVILLE.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHUN/0410182204.nwus54.html
Click to expand...
Mike
 
* AT 756 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF COOTER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A MAJOR KILLER TORNADO.
Click to expand...

Golly, you dont see that wording very often without ground truth at the time. Later verified with reports coming in of people dead and missing.
 
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