07/23/08 FCST: MD/DE/PA/NY

[Bill Hark]

I am surprised that none of the east coast chasers are looking at this set-up. I am impressed by the parameters coming together for potential tornadic storms in SE PA, nearby NJ, and northern MD and DE. I like the NAM (UCAR). There will be 40 kt 500 mb winds from the SW, SE surface winds across eastern PA and NJ, 70+ dewpoints and 1500 CAPE. The CAPE will be better in Virginia but with not as good upper level support. Forecast SRH will be around 200. I am concerned that the trough my be slowing as 00 Z NAM (NCEP) shows it a bit farther west. UCAR hasn't yet updated from the 12Z. Pending more data, I'd like to be in Wilmington, DE.

Bill Hark

 

[Alex Goldstein]

I am pretty happy with the potential set-up today here in NJ. I have to say I agree with the SPC in terms of the 5% tor potential this far north, as the wind fields are quite nice for this area, seemingly better than further south. The 0z NAM as well as GFS have nice backing winds as you get closer to the surface (though the GFS has the fields a bit weaker), and the NAM has decent CAPE piling up into northern NJ. The 0z GFS on the other hand is going crazy on the CAPE, bringing 2500-4000 J/kg of both SB and MLCAPE into northern NJ. (Dunno How much I believe that)

This may not be a great forecast sounding, but I'll take it here any day:
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=GFS&fcsthr=018&STATIONID=KEWR

I've been optimistic before, only to see storms get crushed by the marine layer as they head towards me (I'm 20ish miles to NYC), so I'm really hoping maybe the storms can forget where they are and just go crazy this one time. LOL.

 

[Scott McPartland]

Like Alex, I've had my hopes dashed many times in the past. I can't count how many times I've seen great looking storms headed for NYC (I'm right in Queens, NY) and right as they approach the Hudson...POOF! That marine layer does them in, lol.

Also, it's next to impossible to actually chase here in the city, or anywhere in the 5 boroughs for that matter. There's always traffic no matter what time it is. Last year I tried making it up to Astoria Park which lies right on the East River after hearing reports of waterspouts there, Astoria Park is 7 miles from me and it took me a little over an hour to get there..needless to say, the spouts were gone

I'll definitely be keeping an eye out today regardless.....if anything, my local park offers a nice view looking towards Manhattan so maybe I'll get lucky and something will drop right there...just maybe?

Scott

 

[Dave Kaplow]

I've been watching this one for a while, but in New England forecasts never stay the same for long, the only one that matters is on the day in question, and even that often leads to disappointment. Take today, for instance, I wouldn't be at all surprised if that beautiful 10% tornado risk centered on New Haven evaporates in the next outlook. Sure, helicity is progged to be sufficient for tornadic storms, but with so much overcast and the fact that the RUC is breaking out precip as early as 11z I question whether the instability and storm mode will favor supercells this far north. We'll just have to wait and see. I'll certainly be ready to chase if there's something worth chasing.

Edit: First round of storms already in progress as of 11:45 EST. If this line clears out of here the prospects look good, with satellite showing some clearing behind it.