jamesmseitz
EF1
Rob Hurkes and I noticed this date when we were chasing in Colorado Thursday and Friday 6/10-11. After tearing it apart for a few days now we are thinking that this area finally is going to get in the act for severe weather.
Early in the day there looks to be a trough that comes of the Rockies about lower Montana. Added by a through and good shear it seems to amplify and move through the ND/SD areas with its weak front. The Front will bring some cooler Temps to the 700mb level to make the cap breakable. With cape 3000+ throughout the SD/NE and good directional shear (about 90*) and Helicity (above 300) storms will be likely by 5 PM with the cap eroding. Also of note the EHI is amazing throughout MN/IA areas with storm motion being NNE with relative inflow SW.
With that said there also is what seems to be a 100 MPH jet that is forecasted to literally Streak across the area of the low so that will need to be watched very closely. Either way this day deserves very close attention! (The Jet is no longer to be that strong but still is progged to Lower MN upper IA)
Early in the day there looks to be a trough that comes of the Rockies about lower Montana. Added by a through and good shear it seems to amplify and move through the ND/SD areas with its weak front. The Front will bring some cooler Temps to the 700mb level to make the cap breakable. With cape 3000+ throughout the SD/NE and good directional shear (about 90*) and Helicity (above 300) storms will be likely by 5 PM with the cap eroding. Also of note the EHI is amazing throughout MN/IA areas with storm motion being NNE with relative inflow SW.
With that said there also is what seems to be a 100 MPH jet that is forecasted to literally Streak across the area of the low so that will need to be watched very closely. Either way this day deserves very close attention! (The Jet is no longer to be that strong but still is progged to Lower MN upper IA)
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