Ilya Neyman
EF1
California's active and atypical wx pattern continues with yet another upper-level disturbance that has formed over the Pacific off SoCal and Baja.
May and June are usually very quiet months dominated by strong ridging and basically clear weather outside of the coastal marine layer. The last couple of weeks have featured several episodes of extremely unusual weather for these parts and this time of year with multiple days of showers and thunderstorms, some of which were severe, sparked by several cut-off upper-level lows that have worked into the region with the upper-air pattern. Last Wednesday alone featured about 15 lightning-started wildfires in southern California from several thunderstorm complexes.
With the unseasonably deep troughs temperatures have been bone-chilling for early June standards. Mercury typically reaching the 90s-100 this time of year was down in the 50s and 60s during the afternoons and evenings here in the high desert on several days! Early June has been feeling and looking like early April.
Back to today...next disturbance consistently progged by models is now centered around 125 W 25 N in the form of a large shortwave/semi-closed low, with several smaller shortwaves elongating northeastward.
Relatively deep low-level moisture associated with the Pacific marine layer is present over southern California. At the mid and upper levels moisture is increasing out of the SSW.
Cu have been steadily forming over the mountains.
Forecast soundings show increasing moisture and modest lapse rates. The combination of upper-level vorticity/jet stream energy along with moisture and surface heating/destabilization may lead to thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening primarily over the mountains and deserts. As the upper-system approaches tonight with a stronger spoke of energy, mid-level moisture and cooling aloft may be enough for a round of nocturnal elevated convection.
Our active late spring continues!
May and June are usually very quiet months dominated by strong ridging and basically clear weather outside of the coastal marine layer. The last couple of weeks have featured several episodes of extremely unusual weather for these parts and this time of year with multiple days of showers and thunderstorms, some of which were severe, sparked by several cut-off upper-level lows that have worked into the region with the upper-air pattern. Last Wednesday alone featured about 15 lightning-started wildfires in southern California from several thunderstorm complexes.
With the unseasonably deep troughs temperatures have been bone-chilling for early June standards. Mercury typically reaching the 90s-100 this time of year was down in the 50s and 60s during the afternoons and evenings here in the high desert on several days! Early June has been feeling and looking like early April.
Back to today...next disturbance consistently progged by models is now centered around 125 W 25 N in the form of a large shortwave/semi-closed low, with several smaller shortwaves elongating northeastward.
Relatively deep low-level moisture associated with the Pacific marine layer is present over southern California. At the mid and upper levels moisture is increasing out of the SSW.
Cu have been steadily forming over the mountains.
Forecast soundings show increasing moisture and modest lapse rates. The combination of upper-level vorticity/jet stream energy along with moisture and surface heating/destabilization may lead to thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening primarily over the mountains and deserts. As the upper-system approaches tonight with a stronger spoke of energy, mid-level moisture and cooling aloft may be enough for a round of nocturnal elevated convection.
Our active late spring continues!
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