04/19/05 TALK: Central Plains/Southern Plains

[Verne Carlson]

Tuesday now looks like the best bet to me out of Mon, Tues, Weds this week. SPC has a 25% bullet around the CO, WY, NE area where the best backed surface winds will be. Upper winds will be weak but marginally sufficient for a brief tornado or two. Seeing how this is so close to home for us Colorado chasers, I will be ready to leave DEN around 11:00am and head up to target: Ogallala, NE

 

[Tom Dulong]

I tend to agree that Tuesday looks pretty good, especially for the central high plains. 12Z ETA run suggests extreme northeast CO/northwest KS/western NE. It hints at a dry line bulge, with CAPE around 3000 j/kg and helicity of 300-500 m**2/sec**2. The only missing ingredient in this prog is upper level energy. Upper low is a bit off to the west, with weak difluence in winds aloft for some upward motion. I'd like to see 50 kt flags somewhere in the upper levels, but they're just a bit upstream for prime time in the aforementioned area. Anxiously waiting what the 12Z GFS says about this.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Might have to shift my target for Tuesday a little farther east, from the Kearney, NE HWO:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I see tonights convection has pushed an outflow boundary ahead of it, it'll be interesting to see if this comes into play tommorow at all. Still waiting to see if I'm going tommorow, will be a late start due to prior commitments.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Jon Merage and I (possibly Tom Dulong also) will be heading up I-76 at 11am, check data in Ft. Morgan and then probably head to either my original target of Ogallala or possibly stay farther south near McCook, NE. Looking for initiation in "Chase" County, NE!

 

[Tony Laubach]

I'm gonna try for the DCVZ between jobs.. I'm gonna sneak out an hour early from campus and head to Parker and see if I can get parts of an early show before heading back off to work. :lol: I am out of my mind!

 

[Verne Carlson]

Change of plans for today. SPC has the tornado risk area further west now into NE CO and the Den HWO is mentioning tornadoes along the Palmer Ridge. Meeting Tony near Parker to play the front that has pushed south of Denver. Dews are in the mid 40's to the north and in the teens to the south of the front. Should be lighting up in the next couple hours!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Holding the fort down here at the Shell in Ogallala. First day of wifi working on a chase. This is damn cool.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Tony and I are hanging out at a Loaf & Jug on Parker Road in SE Denver. $2.04/gal gas and free wifi!

 

[Glen Romine]

seeing some atmospheric effort to get some convection going out around the Ainsworth and Oshkosh regions. Not much on radar- but increasingly better appearance on sat suggesting 'real' convection might eventually give it a go. Still time for a root beer float I guess. Cell near Oshkosh is probably the best bet right now.

Glen

 

[Karen Politte]

Southern Plains update:

The dryline has mixed into the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Ahead of the dryline were dewpoints around 60-63oF, and southeasterly surface winds. The wind profiles today more than likely assure that any storm that does develop will be supercellular.

Within the last few satellite scans, convective cumulus clouds have developed along the Caprock and in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. Perhaps there may be some orographic magic at work behind the scenes here, today......

CAP will be the biggest concern - with the RUC breaking out no precip except a few light echoes around the Wichita Falls area. I would like to see more clearing ahead of the dryline in OK.....

Is interesting to watch SPC's Mesoanalysis page this afternoon.....which currently shows that central and southwestern Oklahoma are the privileged areas who are under a 0.5 Sig. Tor. parameter (!!) :wink: . Supercell composite shows an optimistic 4 centered around Wichita Falls, and around 2 or less for areas of Nebraska and Colorado.

KR

 

[Glen Romine]

Cell sw of Hyannis appears that it will be crossing a boundary - indicated as a radar fine line, here shortly. Cell is already showing some weak rotation - while trotting off slowly to the northwest. Apparently a north cell motion could be considered deviant today. As I recall, road options are few and far between out there - but at least these aren't moving very fast at all. Could be some good sized hail based on the algorithms.

Just saw a tornado warning from out of Minnesota - wasn't expecting to see that.

Glen

 

[Glen Romine]

cells starting to look more and more like a cluster - upscale growth may happen rather fast at rate things are changing now. convection starting to fire eastward along the previously mentioned boundary. Torn warning and observed near Sterling. Good lucking radar prentation.

Glen

 

[Dan Dawson]

MD issued for N Texas SW of Wichita falls. The cumulus field has gotten steadily more robust here in the last few hours, and indeed the last few visible satellite images show a tiny anvil, indicating that at least one TCU has managed to break the cap.

Deep layer shear in this area is margina, with low-level shear only slightly better, but there is decent turning. So, if a sustained updraft can form, I think supercells are possible. As Karen pointed out, the supercell composite parameter has been steadily rising, based on the SPC mesoanalysis, as well as the sig tor parameter. Should be fun to watch what happens.

Edit:

Lol, no sooner do I post than SPC issues a severe box for the same area.

Dan

 

[Tom Dulong]

Supercell in northern Elbert CO Colorado is showing a good hook...storm
is moving northeast about 30 knots and should pass just southeast of
Deer Trail.