03/12/14 Severe weather outlook

[calvinkaskey]

Any comments on threat today in Mid-Atlantic? From forecast radar on TWC and the way clouds and rain setting up thinking near Charlottesville, Va is the best area. It is also in the slight risk from SPC. Anybody see a good chance of breaks in the cloud over any of the risk area?

 

[John Olexa]

I know here in MD we have a slight risk this afternoon (mainly strong winds) Calling for 70 ahead of a cold front, but if the sun don't pop out soon we aren't going anywhere near 70. Thought I'm always on the lookout to photograph any type storm big or small, I'm not putting in much of an effort today.

 

[TiffanyR]

I'm near C'ville. It's 61 degrees right now and has been cloudy all day. Not optimistic whatsoever but got my camera out anyway, just in case...got a little excited after this winter for ANYTHING. If I even hear a rumble of thunder today, I'll be happy

 

[Ed Sweeney]

With limited instability, it looks like primarily a low-topped convection event today with that narrow band of convection stretching from SW PA down through the TN/AL border. Beyond an outside chance of quick spin-up on the northern end of a bow echo/QLCS where the sun pops out for a bit, don't think that there will be that much to see chase-wise or photography-wise.

 

[MClarkson]

The wind threat is primarily from minor convection mixing down strong winds aloft (and in terms of widespread severe weather, 40-50kt a few thousand feet up is utterly unimpressive). The convection itself will be even less impressive. Maybe, just maybe, we'll get a lightning strike or a slight bit of rotation.

Also I should add that the 12Z GFS and NAM have both reduced their CAPE, much closer to 0, in better agreement with RGEM that has been 0 for the entire time.