NOW: Hurricane Rita

Well, Rita is having some issues with what appears to be dry air entrainment and the lingering effects of the ERC attm. Though I still am thinking some (possibly significant) restrengthening is likely, the odds of it reattaining category 5 status are dwindling every minute.





I still have not changed my landfall point from in between Freeport and Galveston, but if Rita slows down significantly/stalls offshore, then this will obviously become a LA storm.
 
Well, Rita is having some issues with what appears to be dry air entrainment and the lingering effects of the ERC attm. Though I still am thinking some (possibly significant) restrengthening is likely, the odds of it reattaining category 5 status are dwindling every minute.
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I'm still holding that we're still being haunted by poor organization near the eye. It does look like dry air entrainment may have something to do with it, but I think it's a combo of dry air entrainment and internal dynamics. The internal structure of the hurricane hasn't been able to recover much since the ERC that seemed to drag on forever. I still think we could see strengthening <920mb if we can the eye stabilized. Outflow to the south looks much better today than it did yesterday, so I don' think shear has much to do with it. I thought there wsa a recon that the inner eyewall had finally completely dissipated, but reports since then have indicated a partially open eyewall, and I would have thought that the outer eyewall would have begun constricting and strengthening (as it pretty typical after ERCs). I certainly wouldn't let my guard down, because the longer we go like this, the less of a likelihood we'll see another ERC before landfall to weaken Rita should she re-establish herself and restrengthen.
 
I certainly wouldn't let my guard down, because the longer we go like this, the less of a likelihood we'll see another ERC before landfall to weaken Rita should she re-establish herself and restrengthen.
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Exactly. With time running out before landfall, well under 24hrs to go, we are unlikely to undergo another ERC (except that triple wind maxima last night, what was that about?), even if Rita recovers from her long-lived first attempt at reorganization. I fear that Rita will be intensifying as she comes ashore, and, as has been discussed earlier this year, the difference between a hurricane weakening at landfall and one strengthening at landfall can be significant. Don't let your guard down - this is going to be a category 3 or 4 at landfall with a category 5 surge...
 
Dr. Neil Frank out of KHOU Houston just projected the storm to go directly towards galveston. The northern turn isn't happening.
 
the eye is now clouded over. my best guess would say that that suggests further weakening. alson it looks like dry air is again affecting the hurricane. im not so sure were looking at a cat.4 right now. i think its a cat.3 and im also not so sure that it'll be able to strengthen back to a cat.4 before landfall. like i said way back when she was clearing the keys. dry air is going to kill it and it'll be a cat. 3 at landfall.
 
Looks like the original eye filled in, and a new eye formed to its WNW. I've never seen this before. A multiple-vortex hurricane?
 
the eye is now clouded over. my best guess would say that that suggests further weakening. alson it looks like dry air is again affecting the hurricane. im not so sure were looking at a cat.4 right now. i think its a cat.3 and im also not so sure that it'll be able to strengthen back to a cat.4 before landfall. like i said way back when she was clearing the keys. dry air is going to kill it and it'll be a cat. 3 at landfall.
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I agree with you there with the exception that she may be looking closer to a cat 2 at landfall. Even if she weakened to a cat 1 the main damage has already been done since she is going to be bringing a surge of a cat 4 or 5. Still right on target for south of Lake Charles. I am just not buying the "constant" ERC and think that she is simply just become weaker every hour due to drier air, slightly more shear, slightly cooler SST's and could even be seeing some upwelling effects since she has slowed and has been turning the water up for a few days. This is just my opinion and you guys can all call me crazy, but I just don't see this being a major hurricane at landfall.
 
Dr. Neil Frank out of KHOU Houston just projected the storm to go directly towards galveston. The northern turn isn't happening.
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There's been a huge north "wobble" the past hour or two... The center looks to be east of the forecast track right now. Obviously this dosn't mean too much yet, since it may have jsut been a wobble.

VORTEX ob at 1700UTC has 931mb pressure, though the eye temperature is up to 20C. I think it got down to 14-15C last night, and now it's warming again. only a 4 degree C temp diff across the eyewall, but the eye looks crazy now
 
Though Rita has looked like crap the last couple hours, deep convection is firing to the west of the eye filling in the weaker portions of the western eyewall. Now that this is happening, I expect Rita to be 'yanked' back to the left with the momentum of this new mass of convection moving N to S. It seems that Rita ingested some dry air (though it seems to be a rather small amount), but that she was able to mix it out, though it seemed to significantly distrupt the core structure. I am feeling more confident that restrengthening is FINALLY starting to occur, and will continue until landfall, barring any further dry air intrusion, or, of course, another ERC.
 
Kind of interesting... Latest VORTEX message has pressure at 930mb (down 1mb since last message, though that may well just be because the previous fligh didn't fly through the EXACT center), and max FL winds of 129, which supports 116kt at the surface -- weak Cat 4. This is up 3-5kts from past couple of VORTEX messages. This could, again, just mean that the plane happened to sample a max while previous flights missed it...
 
Where do you guys project this landfall for us in the North Houston area?
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It would be irresponsible for me to answer this question in any other way than: the guys at the NHC are very good at what they do...

 
I haven't seen the latest GFDL run yet this morning but I am still calling for a landfall over Galveston/Houston, TX. The ETA last night had a direct hit on Galveston FWIW. My reasoning hasn't changed in the past 36 hours. These jogs to the left are still occurring...and it is to be expected by hurricanes as you know. I know I am the odd man out with my landfall forecast, but that's the way it goes. I have been called odd before :)
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I tend to agree with you somewhat as I have a bit more faith in ETA/NAM in the shorter ranges than others do with their longer range tropical models. I used it last year on a few occasions to accurately predict landfall spots in FL. I don't think a tropical system is much different from standard model predictions of synoptic weather as far as the model is concerned when it gets on the near term of the NAM horizon. Based on that, I'm not sure that it will hit directly at Galveston but probably much substantially further west than current NHC. All along up to 4 days ago or so I have been calling for a Cat 3 landing - but of course I picked the town of Matagorda.

I tend to doubt this restrengthening argument, but as we know the canes are a bit unpredictable always.

I'm going to start another thread regarding accuracy of forecasts because I think we have some problems here that I thing would be good to discuss. Take a look at that thread as I don't think it belongs in NOW.
 
Heya all, it is starting to get windy! Gusts to 30 right now.

I have my anemometer still up at 14', hope it holds so I can publish my data. As long as my fence and post hold...will have rain data too. My computer that the info downloads to has been taken down, wrapped in plastic and put in a closet. I am on the laptop, as long as we have power.

To all my weather friends in SE Texas and vicinity (Hi Dante! Season tix and parking pass in with important papers!)...
Stay safe, keep the faith and see y'all after Rita blows through!
 
Hello weather friends. Looks like Rita may have finally stabilized but im not sure of any restrengthning prior to landfall as no models indicate this and their isn't a great depth to warm waters left in Rita's path. Several events have already unfolded including the bus explosion, the re-flooding of parts of NOLA and the hyper-rush out of Houston. Latest model consensus between GFS & GFDL puts this Hurricane through Port Arthur which should easily take out their sea-wall and flood a great deal of Port Arthur.
 
The latest infrared imagery seems to suggest to me that there's more convection building on the west side. Man, this storm is wobbling quite a bit, too. Especially when you run the animation at faster speeds.

As an aside, they cancelled the Fort Worth Alliance Airshow scheduled for this weekend. The Thuderbirds and Canadian Snowbirds were to perform but they've been ordered to move out of the area.
 
The GFDL and NOGAPS are already to far south. Based on track up to this point the Hurricane looks to be east of the Galveston/Houston area. Looks like either the LBAR solution which puts in the middle between GALVESTON-ARTHUR or directly over Port Arthur as the GFS and some other dynamic models indicate.
 
Rita at 1610z:


Rita at 1955z:


The latest UW-CIMMS satellite based intensity estimate at 1945z was 132kt winds with a miniumum central pressure of 925mb. While the VDM was sent out at roughly the same time and indicated a minumum pressure of 930mb, this pressure nonetheless still is generally supportive of category 4 intensity. However, we've seen that, in the last 24hrs, Rita's pressure has supported far higher windspeeds than were actually observed -- presumably due to ERC. Now that this ERC is complete, we should be seeing only one wind maximum with category 4 windspeed develop. Without a doubt, I continue to feel that Rita about to restrengthen, if she is not already, and will quite likely be a cat4 at landfall.
 
The CIMMS- Dvorak System won't reflect CI weakening for many more hours so the intensity is still from last night.
 
Wow ... I walk away from the computer for an afternoon and Rita decides to do some funky dance moves ... I've never seen quite a jump like that ... now I hope she keeps jogging more north than west at this point ... avoid Houston!

EDIT: whatever Rita crossed over in terms of ocean waters caused a huge spike in the IR on the western side that has not been seen since her Category 5 days ...

EDIT: Interesting note ... did anyone notice on the visible that as Rita took a big jump that a cumulus field just flashed instantaneously across portions of southern and central Texas ... that's interesting ... maybe just coincidence, nothing more ...
 
The eye is also currently showing signs of increased definition. The previous filling in now seems to be clarifying and the gulf is again visible inside the eyewall. Slight re-intensification would seem at least possible as the storm wobbles west at this point, though it's impossible to tell whether we will manage to see a significant drop in pressure and escalation in wind speed. This has been quite an interesting thing to watch this afternoon.
 
freaky.jpg


Can anyone shed some light on what the 5 aligned "things" west of the storm are in this image ?
 
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