Using Water Vapor To Forecast Storms

[David Williams]

So I've been taking a lot of courses on MetEd about Satellite Water Vapor Interpretation, and I've been reading the Manual of Synoptic Satellite Meteorology. Many of the courses discuss analysis and diagnosis of Vort maxs, vort mins, deformation zones, axis of max wind, cols and conveyor belts. Naturally it takes some getting used to; and, I'm doing better at identifying these features. However, I'm still trying to put it into the "forecasting for tornadoes" paradigm. I think I understand that you would use WV imagery for large scale feature analysis from fronts and warm conveyor belts to troughs and ridges. But, these courses don't say, "and if you're forecasting for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, look for these features." So, I don't know how to conceptually connect the dots with that. And I'd like to know if anyone uses WV for anything besides identifying these large, synoptic features? Or, what specific features on WV imagery you would be on the lookout for on chase day.

Cheers,
David

 

[Jeff Duda]

I pretty much just use water vapor satellite to look for areas of lifting, especially subtle types. That basically falls into the category of looking for synoptic scale features, just on a slightly smaller scale. Look for higher brightness temperatures going along a streamline (follow the flow in an animation to get a proxy for streamlines).

I don't think there's really anything more you can use WV for for severe storm forecasting. WV measures water vapor content in the middle and upper troposphere, so it's just not going to show you anything near the surface where the features more closely controlling tornadogenesis occur. Use WV to look at areas that may become more likely for convective initiation.

Of course there are plenty of other atmospheric features you can see on WV satellite, but they're just not that useful for severe storm forecasting.

 

[David Williams]

That makes sense. The more I was studying the more I began realizing that large scale features were really all I was going to get out of it. I understand that you use it for subtler features, but I think that takes a really practiced eye; and it's something that probably wouldn't pay off for me based on my needs. Cost/benfit with time and effort says I should start applying my study time to a different area of meteorology.

But while we're on the subject, would you say that between IR, WV and VIS for tornado forecasting, VIS is the most helpful? I haven't taken many lessons on IR but it seems like of the 3, VIS allows you to see moisture (cu fields, cloud streets, etc), boundaries, clearing and warming (diurnal heating), and cloud cover (ongoing convection or moisture transport). Does IR have any magic properties I don't know about that can beat that?[emoji3]

 

[Jeff Duda]

That makes sense. The more I was studying the more I began realizing that large scale features were really all I was going to get out of it. I understand that you use it for subtler features, but I think that takes a really practiced eye; and it's something that probably wouldn't pay off for me based on my needs. Cost/benfit with time and effort says I should start applying my study time to a different area of meteorology.

What I've done to become experienced is to spend a few minutes each day looking at observed WV satellite. You don't have to spend 30 minutes. Just load up a loop from the RAP site or COD site (my preferences, but there are plenty of others out there) and watch it animate. Make a detailed examination of a variety of areas including where you live, the plains, and other areas. It'll be most rewarding when there are bigtime synoptic scale disturbances present. To really enrich your learning, pair up the satellite observation with an AFD or convective outlook that mentions lift or water vapor satellite to correlate what the pros are seeing to what is on water vapor. Yeah, it'll probably take more than a few days, but again, you can get some pretty good experience out of just a few minutes each day.

But while we're on the subject, would you say that between IR, WV and VIS for tornado forecasting, VIS is the most helpful? I haven't taken many lessons on IR but it seems like of the 3, VIS allows you to see moisture (cu fields, cloud streets, etc), boundaries, clearing and warming (diurnal heating), and cloud cover (ongoing convection or moisture transport). Does IR have any magic properties I don't know about that can beat that?

Yes, visible is probably the most useful for forecasting thunderstorms in general because it offers the best view of surface based features, which are very important to getting storms to fire. It doesn't really show you where moisture or heat is (that's what water vapor and infrared are for), but you can identify boundaries and cumulus fields to determine if and where storms may, or about to, form. The big advantage to infrared is 24-hour availability - you can use it at night when visible becomes useless. It is also better at telling you which clouds are generally deeper and colder, thus giving an indication of which storm cluster may be stronger.

 

[David Williams]

What I've done to become experienced is to spend a few minutes each day looking at observed WV satellite.

I'm glad you said this, because I have started doing this recently. I've decided that I can't just wait until chase season to begin to start using these tools then put them back on the shelf and ignore them until I think I need them again. I realized that if I want to get good at this, I need to look at this stuff every day. Maybe not for 2 hours but at least being mindful of the tools, how they work and what the atmosphere is doing. I think chasers have a much better idea of what's going on if they've been looking at the weather every day rather than sitting down at the computer and saying, "Well, I'm going chasing tomorrow; I haven't looked at the weather in a while, let's see what the atmosphere is doing."

To really enrich your learning, pair up the satellite observation with an AFD or convective outlook that mentions lift or water vapor satellite to correlate what the pros are seeing to what is on water vapor.

What's an AFD?



And while we're on this subject, I have another question that is somewhat closely related to this one. As I mentioned, I am beginning to look at the weather every day. I mostly use CoD (great updates to this site on the satellite and radar pages if everyone doesn't know already) to check the Analysis Products and satellite. If I look at model data it might be the 500 mb winds just to get a general idea of what the future might hold. But really I try to look at what is happening or what has recently happened. Also, I'll take a look at the Mesoanalysis on the SPC page. My question has to do with what I'm actually looking at with the Mesosanalysis page. I've used it as an analysis product showing me what the atmosphere is like right now. I believe I have also heard other people refer to it in a way that assumes the information is descriptive not predictive (obviously that doesn't include the +2, +4, or +6). However, the information box off to the right says that it is simply the RAP model. Yet, it goes back in time and has +0 hours. So, when I'm looking at that mesoanalysis page, should I take the info with the same kind of skepticism and discernment as I look at the HRRR or GFS or whatever model? Or, can I look at it like a surface analysis map?

 

[Jeff Duda]

AFD stands for area forecast discussion. Every NWS office is supposed to release one every forecast cycle when they make their forecasts to give a scientific/descriptive explanation for the forecast they gave. It's not a very well regulated product, and discussion quality varies significantly from one office to the next. A lot of the offices in the upper Midwest give really good discussions, though. AFDs from the Norman office, on the other hand, are generally a joke and offer little to no insight into the forecast. I grew up in Iowa, and I had experience reading the AFDs from the Des Moines office. They are pretty thorough and high in quality. I believe the Omaha ones are, too.

The products you see on the SPC mesoanalysis page are the result of their SFCOA - or surface objective analysis - an internal system that assimilates current observations into short-term forecasts, generally coming from the RAP model. In essence, every hour, the previous hour's 1-hour RAP forecast serves as a background field onto which current observations (almost exclusively surface station obs, but some profilers and WSR-88D VADs and other special obs are also used) are assimilated to give an analysis, defined as a picture of the current state of the atmosphere. There are bound to be errors in the products since the model forecasts used as a background field to construct them have errors, and the current observations are meant to correct for some of those errors. However, many errors cannot be fully corrected. There's a deep theory of data assimilation that I won't go further into, but know that the +0 products for example are meant to indicate the best guess of the present state of the atmosphere given the availability of prior forecasts and current observatons. The +2/-2,+4/-4 products are probably RAP forecasts from the given hour or the previous hour's analysis.

Should you be skeptical of the products? In some cases, yes. This is where it helps to have meteorological knowledge and experience. I have identified many errant observations that make it through the SFCOA and show up on mesoanalysis that impact the final fields. Knowing where there are errors is part of the expert knowledge. That's not something that is going to come easy to anyone without some education, though.

 

[Jeff Duda]

BTW, I know this is getting off topic, but here is an image showing how mesoanalysis products can get screwed up by a bad ob that makes it through the SFCOA:



Those who are friends with me on Facebook may have seen this when I posted it last month. In this case, a bad dewpoint ob from the Plainview, TX AWOS station made it through the quality control checks in the SFCOA and was manifest in the thermodynamic products on the mesoanalyses. On the left is surface theta-e showing a plume of extremely high values with a source near the grid point where the Plainview ob was probably assimilated. Observe that the high theta-e extends from the source northeastward generally along the direction of the surface winds which were weak but southwesterly. Furthermore, the length of the plume suggests that bad obs from that station had been consistently assimilated for at least a few hours (considering the advective length scale with winds of that speed). I'm not sure which method is used to calculate CAPE in the mesoanalyses, but if it involves theta-e, then that explains the subsequent extreme (and not real) values of SBCAPE seen in the image on the right. I don't even know what those maximum contour values are, but it looks to be in excess of 8000 J/kg of SBCAPE. While I have seen legitimate 8000 CAPE before, I'm nearly 100% sure this signature is incorrect. But this is an example of something a trained eye can pick out. Sadly, I bet that if this were a chase day, this signal would screw with many a chaser and lead them astray in their nowcasting.

 

[Mike Marz]

AFD stands for area forecast discussion. Every NWS office is supposed to release one every forecast cycle when they make their forecasts to give a scientific/descriptive explanation for the forecast they gave. It's not a very well regulated product, and discussion quality varies significantly from one office to the next. A lot of the offices in the upper Midwest give really good discussions, though. AFDs from the Norman office, on the other hand, are generally a joke and offer little to no insight into the forecast. I grew up in Iowa, and I had experience reading the AFDs from the Des Moines office. They are pretty thorough and high in quality. I believe the Omaha ones are, too.

Maybe this needs an entirely new thread, but on the topic of area forecast discussions, I usually read the AFDMPX (Minneapolis) every single day just because it is where I live. I will say that I really enjoy these discussions and they do a great job of giving very thorough explanations on most days. During an active period where severe weather is expected, I will read the area forecast discussions of every office in a threat area, days in advance, and the day of. This really helps kill time on the morning of a chase day, but it is also helpful and a great learning resource. Although I think every forecast discussion in the central portion of the country is thorough and great to read, some of my favorite and most consistently thorough area forecast discussions come from these offices: Hastings, NE, Wichita, KS, Des Moines, IA, Bismarck, ND, and La Crosse, WI. One forecaster in the Amarillo, TX forecast office even used to include a "chaser forecast" in his discussions, I thought that was really cool. It is definitely interesting to read the different shift's opinions on a given forecast. It is also interesting how some forecast offices seem much more skeptical on severe weather chances/severity. I have noticed on the higher end of the spectrum the Des Moines discussions usually sound fairly bullish when it comes to a severe threat, and on the other end of the spectrum the La Crosse office tends to downplay everything. No scientific study done here, just an observation I have made as I have read these discussions.

 

[David Williams]

So, just to get my bearings on the quality of these AFDs, I posted the Tulsa AFD below. Would this be good, ok, or weak?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The bulk of the near-term model guidance suggests
shower/thunderstorm development across southeast Kansas over the
next few hours...with the activity expanding south into northeast
Oklahoma during the morning hours. This appears to be tied to
increasing isentropic lift...best seen on NAM 310-315K analysis.
Will have slight chances pops for the morning hours for now...but
will monitor for possible increase in PoPs and coverage.

Next upper wave currently moving across the northern Rockies will
push into the Plains later today...eventually bringing a weak
frontal boundary into parts of the area later Friday and Friday
night. Overall moisture is still expected to remain rather
limited...so have continued to keep PoPs generally in the 20-40%
range...with the best chances setting up for Friday night.

Mid-level heights rise a bit later this weekend...with
temperatures running near or just a bit above average going into
next week. A broad upper level low will likely develop along the
Gulf coast states...but it appears to be too far south to
significantly impact our weather.

 

[Mike Marz]

So, just to get my bearings on the quality of these AFDs, I posted the Tulsa AFD below. Would this be good, ok, or weak?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The bulk of the near-term model guidance suggests
shower/thunderstorm development across southeast Kansas over the
next few hours...with the activity expanding south into northeast
Oklahoma during the morning hours. This appears to be tied to
increasing isentropic lift...best seen on NAM 310-315K analysis.
Will have slight chances pops for the morning hours for now...but
will monitor for possible increase in PoPs and coverage.

Next upper wave currently moving across the northern Rockies will
push into the Plains later today...eventually bringing a weak
frontal boundary into parts of the area later Friday and Friday
night. Overall moisture is still expected to remain rather
limited...so have continued to keep PoPs generally in the 20-40%
range...with the best chances setting up for Friday night.

Mid-level heights rise a bit later this weekend...with
temperatures running near or just a bit above average going into
next week. A broad upper level low will likely develop along the
Gulf coast states...but it appears to be too far south to
significantly impact our weather.

I think this is ok. There really isn't a whole lot going on right now so most areas are going to have a bit less substance in their discussions. I know Tulsa has some pretty in depth forecast discussions in the spring during potential tornadic days, much more than Norman I believe. For a comparison, here is the AFD for Sioux Falls today, which is under a marginal risk, but nothing to extreme. You can see this is fairy in-depth. This is good stuff in my opinion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
603 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL
HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMPLEX HAS A
HISTORY OF VERY STRONG WINDS WITH MIDLAND SD REPORTING 79 MPH GUSTS
AS IT MOVED OVERHEAD. GIVEN THAT THIS COMPLEX IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST...THINK THAT THE SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL
BE GREATEST IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD COUNTIES. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT IT
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT HEADS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.

THINK THIS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH I29 SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SW MN AND NW IA THROUGH MIDDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SORT OF BREAK IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS COMPLEX...BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL
SD...WILL IGNITE FURTHER CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.
THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY TRUDGES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE I29 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EASTWARD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER WAVE THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR WINDS...MAINLY NEAR THE MO VALLEY.
BY LATE EVENING THIS THREAT DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY...AS WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH THUNDER AT ALL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HAMPERED A
BIT BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY...BUT WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FRONT WEIGHTED AT THE START OF
THE LONGER RANGE. DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO BEING CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE FSD CWA AT 12Z FRIDAY...BUT STILL
DEALING WITH A COUPLE DISTINCT COMMUNITIES OF SOLUTIONS...ONE A BIT
MORE NORTHWARD CONSISTING OF MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND
ONE MORE SOUTHWARD CONSISTING OF THE CANADIAN AND WRF-ARW/WRF NMM.
SOME HINTS IN THE WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGEST A BIT MORE
CREDENCE SHOULD BE GIVEN TO THIS SUBSET...WITH STRONGER OF THE WAVES
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH AND WHAT IMPACT THE CURRENT MCS WILL
HAVE ON BOUNDARY LOCATION. WHEREVER THE EXACT UPPER LOW SETS UP BY
EARLY FRIDAY...THE EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN A PRECIPITATION
FAVORED DYNAMIC SET UP.

ONE THING THAT MAY BE A CHALLENGE IS GETTING A GREAT COVERAGE OF
THUNDER...WITH MOST PROFILES SIDING CLOSER TO MOIST NEUTRAL NEAR AND
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. CONTINUE TO SHOW TRAJECTORY WRAPPING MID LEVEL
FRONTAL SUPPORT AND PRECIPITATION BEHIND SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.
EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DOES END OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO IMPACT HEATING. WILL LIKELY HOLD
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE FAR EAST...AND SOME LATE DAY SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 IN THE WEST.

CONCERN GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
PULL EASTWARD IS JUST HOW MUCH PUSH THE STRATUS FIELD WILL GET
BEFORE FLOW WEAKENS WITH BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE CWA TRAJECTORY
WOULD FAVOR DRYING...BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE STRATUS LINGER
INTO MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EVEN NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THERE TO BE SOME
AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE I29 CORRIDOR.

FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD SOUTHERLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A FEATURE OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
FEATURES...IN FACT...ARE FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE OF WAVES PUSHING OVER A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE. POTENTIALLY
COULD GET A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WITH THE WARMISH TEMPS ALOFT AND
DISTINCT LACK OF CONVERGENCE ANYWHERE NEAR THE AREA...HAVE REMOVED
ATTEMPT BY BLENDED INITIALIZATION FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS APPEAR TO HAVE A BIT OF A
COOL BIAS IN THE BLEND AND HAVE PUSHED MOST DAYTIME READINGS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPTED TO DO MORE...BUT
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW MAXIMUM MIXING. READINGS IN THE WEST
WILL OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S...WHILE GENERALLY 80S
PREVAIL EACH DAY CENTRAL AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY HOLD
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

As a comparison to this, here is the OUN forecast discussion for today. Now granted there isn't really anything going on, you usually see a lot more substance in other areas with nothing going on. Not that I blame OUN, I am just not sure what the reason behind this is.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
714 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA (GAG/WWR) SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SINCE LAST EVENING. SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
SUNRISE. SO FAR...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED.
REGARDLESS...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR WELL NORTH OF OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

 

[Jeff Duda]

So, just to get my bearings on the quality of these AFDs, I posted the Tulsa AFD below. Would this be good, ok, or weak?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The bulk of the near-term model guidance suggests
shower/thunderstorm development across southeast Kansas over the
next few hours...with the activity expanding south into northeast
Oklahoma during the morning hours. This appears to be tied to
increasing isentropic lift...best seen on NAM 310-315K analysis.
Will have slight chances pops for the morning hours for now...but
will monitor for possible increase in PoPs and coverage.

Next upper wave currently moving across the northern Rockies will
push into the Plains later today...eventually bringing a weak
frontal boundary into parts of the area later Friday and Friday
night. Overall moisture is still expected to remain rather
limited...so have continued to keep PoPs generally in the 20-40%
range...with the best chances setting up for Friday night.

Mid-level heights rise a bit later this weekend...with
temperatures running near or just a bit above average going into
next week. A broad upper level low will likely develop along the
Gulf coast states...but it appears to be too far south to
significantly impact our weather.

In my opinion, with the exception of this phrase, "This appears to be tied to increasing isentropic lift...best seen on NAM 310-315K analysis," this discussion is pretty weak. All it does is disclose the forecast. Very little information on WHY the forecasters came up with their forecast is given. Little expansion is given on general weather patterns. There's just not much actual technical detail there.