TS Kiko (E Pac)

[Josh Morgerman]

This disorganized TS-- currently centered ~300 mi S of Manzanillo, MX-- is getting a tiny bit interesting. The models-- and the NHC forecast-- have been steadily trending stronger and closer to mainland Mexico.

The system still looks like crap this evening-- however, most of the models are now indicating a hurricane within a few days. From the 8 pm PDT Discussion:

IN FACT THE SHIPS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISHEVELED PATTERN ON SATELLITE...I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE STORM SHOWS MORE SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BEFORE JUMPING ON THE HURRICANE KIKO BANDWAGON. HOWEVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARDS AT DAYS 3-5 IN DEFERENCE TO OUR BEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.​

The GFDL-- which earlier did not develop the cyclone very much at all-- did a big about-face this evening and now makes it a strong Cat 2 in a few days.

Also quite interesting is that the models have shifted generally E, implying more of a direct threat to Mexico:

THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE TOO CLOSE BY THEN TO MISS MEXICO. MOST MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN. THE ECMWF/GFDN/NOGAPS/UKMET MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER OR CLOSE TO MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.​

I'll definitely be keeping an eye on this. Who know? It could get intresting. And I'm so jonesing for some chase action right now, I'd fly down there for a Cat 2 without hesitation. But I'm getting ahead of myself here...

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The 06Z HWRF brings the intensity to a whopping ~904 mb/130 kt as it brushes Los Cabos in a few days. Wow. Haven't seen a good "Models Gone Wild" run like that in a while.

The GFDL is less bullish, but brings it to near Cat 3 (~955 mb/108 at 35 m).

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Josh - where is Los Cabos? I can not find it on my map.

All of the 12z models say fish! but the 12z GFDL does say landfall at Culiacan as a strong CAT 2.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Josh - where is Los Cabos? I can not find it on my map.

All of the 12z models say fish! but the 12z GFDL does say landfall at Culiacan as a strong CAT 2.

Los Cabos is the municipality at the S tip of Baja California. It encompasses Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, which probably are on your map.

I say "Los Cabos" because it's a broader area than naming an exact city-- like saying "Mississippi" rather than "Biloxi".

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Got you! - what is is like to chase there? has any one done it?

I am thinking about strong buildings, gas stations and internet conections... all the usual stuff.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Got you! - what is is like to chase there? has any one done it?

I am thinking about strong buildings, gas stations and internet conections... all the usual stuff.

I have not chased there. In Mexico I've only chased on the Yucatan, which I found to be great chase territory.

Re: Baja California... The resort areas-- like Cabo San Lucas-- have all of the necessary chaser comforts you mention. But I was just chatting with Jim Leonard, and he says further up the Peninsula, it's sparsely populated and desert-like, and the roads aren't great.

Too bad-- if there was a good highway, I could drive there from L.A.!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Curiouser and curiouser... The NHC's new (2 pm PDT) advisory package brings Kiko near Los Cabos, MX, around Day 5, with winds of 85 kt (Cat 2). This is a remarkable increase from the previous package, which maxed it out at 55 kt.

I'll definitely need to watch this one. I'm not wild about peninsula and island chases-- the bust risk is so darn high-- but I'm desperate enough at this point that I might consider it if this thing really spins up.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Flights from L.A. to Cabo San Lucas are dirt cheap, direct, fast, and plentiful.

Yummy!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

It is a 14 hour haul from the UK (quicker to get to Tiawan LOL) but if this storm look like a go then I will start to make plans in the morning - it has to be CAT3 at least in order for me to make the trip.

One to watch right now.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

It is a 14 hour haul from the UK (quicker to get to Tiawan LOL) but if this storm look like a go then I will start to make plans in the morning - it has to be CAT3 at least in order for me to make the trip.

One to watch right now.

Yeah, it's a real schlepp for you! For me, it's an easy, two-hour, $280 flight-- Southern CA is actually closer to MX's Pac-side hurricane country than it is to the USA's-- so if it's a borderline situation, I may just go. Cat 2 (85 kt) is my threshold for MX chasing.

Heck, even if it misses, I get a nice weekend in Cabo San Lucas-- not the end of the world.

 

[B Ozanne]

Got you! - what is is like to chase there? has any one done it?

I am thinking about strong buildings, gas stations and internet conections... all the usual stuff.

The southern tip of Baja is fairly well developed. Its a major tourist destination for US citizens. I think there is a good north/south highway system there as well. Large, well built (at least that was the plan) hotels.

Its a desert climate there with fairly big mountains running up the middle of Baja.

 

[Jim Leonard]

It is a 14 hour haul from the UK (quicker to get to Tiawan LOL) but if this storm look like a go then I will start to make plans in the morning - it has to be CAT3 at least in order for me to make the trip.

One to watch right now.

Stu.
I would monitor this one very closely before you take an expensive plunge. It is looking more and more likely this storm will miss the western trough and will make a hard left turn long before it comes close to the Baja.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/eastpac/track_early1.png

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Stu.
I would monitor this one very closely before you take an expensive plunge. It is looking more and more likely this storm will miss the western trough and will make a hard left turn long before it comes close to the Baja.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/eastpac/track_early1.png

Yup, Jim, it looks like the NHC agrees. The latest (8 pm PDT) NHC package shows a sharper left turn than previously, taking the cyclone well S of Los Cabos. I'll still keep an eye on it, but this evening's trend is not good from a chasing perspective.

I chased a category #4 cane, Trudy, in 1990 to Baja; and although it was progged by the NHC to hit Cabo, it turned back west before it reached the Baja. The day before, we took a ride north to see what type of chasing territory is there in case a storm came inland north of Cabo one day in the furture.
Conclusion: if the storm does not DIRECTLY hit the southern tip (Cabo San Lucas or San Jose Del Cabo) you will be in REAL desert, with REAL vultures constantly circling looking for something freshly dead to eat. Once you get just 3 miles north of town it is rolling desert, with scrubbrush for vegegtation, and sand sand sand. There are mountains to the east of the coastal highway, which have a history of sending mudslides down to the coast after tropical storms. The rental cars are mosly convertables, or open top Jeep type things; at least when we went.

The road between Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo also floods and/or gets covered with several feet of sand with just a few feet of surge or several inches of quick tropical downpour, so pick your position way ahead of landfall. In Cabo San Lucas, in most places, you don't have to worry about surge, as the drop-off into the ocean is quite steep.

Wow, Rich, you must have been totally pissed with the way it took that sharp-left turn after you troubled yourself to get down there. Grrrrr.

Your description of Baja California made me laugh. All I keep thinking about now is vultures, sand, cliffs, and flooded roads. It sounds kind of dreadful, actually.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The cyclone is getting a little better organized and is drifting N-ish. The latest NHC forecast track brings it very close to Baja California-- closer than last night-- but there's a wide spread with the models. The bottom line is that it's really not clear what's going to happen with this.

One interesting point that someone on another forum made: the closer it comes to the coast of mainland MX and the Baja, the stronger it will probably be, as the water is much, much warmer near the coast and around the Baja.

Certainly something to watch. I still have a couple of days to make a decision.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I have about as much time as you Josh minus 1 day ...