State of the Chase Season 2026

[Harlan U]

...maybe the 1990s-2000s were the anomaly for their frequency of Plains outbreak sequences, and we chasers who came of age in that era got spoiled thinking that was the norm).

I think you're right. Something was going on in the 90s that made tornado seasons really great. I can't speak for the rest of the country, but in Colorado things have just not been the same since the 90s or 2000s. The average number of tornadoes in Colorado by decade are as follows:
1990s: 60.2
2000s: 43.5
2010s: 40.6
2020-2025: 43.3

I've created a simple plot in excel to illustrate what I mean. The average annual count of tornadoes in Colorado was legitimately around 60 during the 90s and has been steadily declining since. The chart only includes years 1991-2025.

Obviously raw tornado count isn't exactly correlated with the quality of a chase season, but more tornadoes=more opportunities in my book.


In other news, there is significant moisture currentlly falling in E CO, with more forecasted by the 20th. I'm hoping that this will amerliorate drought conditions a little bit and potentially set the stage for some severe weather late May. It's definitely looking better than a week ago. No matter what happens, I'm sure we'll scrape together some NW flow mesoscale days out here like we always do.


I think this will be a game of patience. Hopefully late May and June will pay off this year. Of course, there's always the issue that chasers get more desperate as these dead periods stretch on, and there's going to be a lot of pent up energy by the time things actually get going in late May. One shudders to imagine how bad the crowds might be given the already awful behavior observed this year combined with an extended dead period in the heart of the chasing season.

 

[Jeff House]

Some research suggests the warming Arctic reduces large scale (continental+) baroclinicity. Mid latitude systems (and associated severe weather) need baroclinicity in the broadest sense. Warm Arctic can also lead to frustrating blocking patterns instead of proper southwest flow.

Perhaps the 1990s was a sweet spot where warmer overall fed theta E before the baroclinity situation caught up. More likely though, the 90s was just a blip in some broad cycle. Fewer large outbreaks is better for the public. Either way we'll still have weather to chase. Just have to be more selective.

Which brings me to 2026. First the dewpoint situation (previous page) is likely models initializing the drought. Sure it's a challenge. Drought will matter more late season than early. However in late May we often see moisture return faster than original mid-range progs, kind of an offset to the drought concern.. iff the right weather pattern sets up.

What about that right pattern? Hints of improvement the week of May 18 are noted. The East trough should depart or fill. Still some AN heights out west, but something closer to zonal flow can be enough in late May. About 1/3 of ensemble members have southwest flow; others are zonal or still WNW. Stubborn +PNA will have to relax for a few days and let through some activity.

While I don't see a blockbuster pattern coming, I see evidence that late May climo will contribute to opportunities. Chasers have to be free and willing to drill down the forecast a bit when the time comes.

 

[Luke Penney]

Looks like Mississippi had quite the day yesterday, for one specific supercell (SPC reports):

 

[Boris Konon]

Looks like Mississippi had quite the day yesterday, for one specific supercell (SPC reports):

View attachment 29305

A lot of these are reports of the same tornado. When you get one long-tracked tornado (if this was one), you can easily get 10+ individual reports in an LSR.

Another note, 5/6 is an example of just b/c the overall pattern is lousy, does *not* mean you can't get significant tornadoes. Sure, MS is not good chase country b/c of trees/terrain, and storms this time of year in the South tend be more HP, but beggars can't be choosers. Take what nature dishes out!

Look at the svr wx report coverage on 5/6:

Storm Prediction Center 260506's Storm Reports

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Very limited, which makes sense when the overall synoptic pattern is not good, but as w/ so many things in wx, the details are *everything!*
Many times in a lousy/unfocused/benign-looking pattern, it is only apparent things will come together on the mesoscale the day of the event, and sometimes in real-time. Look at Campo CO May 31, 2010 or Chapman KS May 25, 2016 (probably the best two examples). And
F5/EF5 "surprise" events (Plainfield IL 8/28/1990 and Jarrell TX 5/27/1997).

Another example, not a tornadic event, but still high-end and impressive. "Workin' at the car wash!"

Port Comfort TX 5/1/26

https://twitter.com/x/status/2050301507174539390

And even more limited svr wx coverage overall!

Storm Prediction Center 20260501's Storm Reports

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Video never does high winds justice.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I haven't been looking at long-range models so that I can avoid torturing myself. I had already decided not to head out on May 11, based on the commentary here. Just took a look at EPS and GEFS. There's SW flow beginning around 5/18, through the end of the run around 5/22. It's weak, and the axis of the trough hangs way back on the west coast and doesn't seem to progress much. Moisture is mostly shunted east of I-35 in KS/OK. There's good alignment between the models. It's encouraging just that it's not a death ridge. It's at least a pattern evolving in the right direction from the awful pattern of the earlier days. Moisture does approach MAF, so I can at least see a few potential mesoscale days in that area, with some luck that flow strengthens with a couple of well-timed perturbations. Capping would be a general concern, but I haven't looked into that just yet.

My plan was to base out of the Plains and just work remotely, so I'm not trying to time things too exactly, but I don't want to head out too soon and waste money either... And the most important thing I'm trying to juggle is advising my son when to join me; he only has one week, so it's going to be either the 18th or the 25th. I think he's going to have to tell his boss his plans this week. I don't see the week of the 18th as being very compelling, but there's always the risk the week of the 25th could be even worse; unfortunately there won't be enough visibility into that before he needs to make a decison and finalize his schedule at work.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

All ensemble data show some sort of mean troughing in the West by about the 20th. So my plan to head out around the 18th is still in place. I see little sign of a return to a very favorable pattern, but I think that there will be storms, better than the western ridge in the shorter term. It does help to have already had a pretty good season, at this point some structure or lightning combined with northern Rockies/western High plains scenery is enough to keep me at least reasonably satisfied.

 

[William Monfredo]

More likely...the 90s was just a blip in some broad cycle... we often see moisture return faster than original mid-range progs...Chasers have to be free and willing...

Yes to those three points above.

I think he's going to have to tell his boss his plans...

Chase Memorial Day weekend & beyond.

 

[Boris Konon]

I know it's not a windfall, but several days ago, it looked like nada. Now, we have a slight risk in OK today and tomorrow, and a large part of cntrl and nrn TX Sunday. 2% tor risk today and tomorrow. Yes, storm mode is not ideal, esp. b/c supercells tend to rain into their inflow w/ NW flow, but NW flow can throw in some surprises and be sneaky. It is a little early for productive NW flow, but nature never really cared what the calendar says!

Look at the NAM 850-500 dir shear 10/03z in OK. Over 90 deg. SCP is high, but STP is low. Hodographs really strung out so some giant hailers likely and solid structure shorts as well.

I guess it all depends on what you are looking for. If you just out for the big tors, you are going to be disappointed often. There is a lot more to storm chasing than the tor!

 

[William Monfredo]

It is a little early for productive NW flow, but nature never really cared what the calendar says...
...so some giant hailers likely and solid structure shorts as well.
If you're just out for the big tors, you are going to be disappointed often. There is a lot more to storm chasing than the tor!

Beautiful attitude to have for sure!
But I can't be the only one that's not a fan of northwest flow, and I've had enough of big hail, including the Vivian, SD record-storm.
I know beggars can't be choosers, but I won't chase in hazy, rainy, piney Mississippi ever again, been there, done that, too.
I like great structure, but really, I go out for the tornadoes, the bigger the better, even with potential for disappointment.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I’m with William on this one. We all know what we most hope to see when we chase. We can convince ourselves of these other niceties all we want, but personally I’d rather blow off steam by venting about the profound disappointment of a maddening lack of storms in peak season. It makes me feel even worse to hear suggestions to be happy to drive hundreds of miles and spend thousands of dollars to see crap storms in the forests east of I-35 or to busy myself with non-chasing-related amusements that I can enjoy the rest of the year without traveling very far from home. It’s like when you lose your job, you don’t want to hear “at least you have your health.”

 

[Warren Faidley]

NCEP models suggest benign SP flow though most of May. If this kind of pattern remains constant for a few more years, I think we are going to see April become the favored chase month. This would kind of make sense if the overall world patterns are changing. This could mean May becomes more of a summer month—with a fewer big events.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I've had a couple of amazing chases the last couple of days, with yesterday being a top notch structure day in prime chase territory. Given that I wasn't expecting anything at all (nor anyone else I don't think), it seems we're going to be in for the not-so-obvious set ups this year, which puts those who travel long distance to the plains for chasing at somewhat of a disadvantage vs. those of us already here. But, I did see plenty of tour guests along the roadsides who probably felt like they got their money's worth. Basically this year's mostly going to be a gamble from day to day, but things are happening and not as bleak as previously thought, at least from a chasing perspective.

 

[Brett Roberts]

This weekend brings the latest widespread rain event on the S Plains whose main gradient practically lies right along the eastern edge of classic chase country. The rich and jungly get richer and junglier. On the plus side, NW OK is getting in a bit on this one, stretching some Mesonet sites up there all the way to a 1" running total for the entire spring to-date!

To my eye, the prognosis hasn't changed much over the past week. Fri (5/8) and Sat (5/9) produced a mixture of messy-cold-front-forced, brief skinny LP, and very-high-based supercells over OK/TX that gave tourists and desperate locals something to occupy themselves; the caliber of storms that are nice to watch in late March after a long winter. A reminder that May usually finds a way to produce robust convection in these parts, no matter how bleak the medium range pattern looks. For at least the next 7 days, I imagine one or two more days of that type will come to pass, despite a very unfavorable pattern.

Looking to May 18-20 and beyond, the strongest signal on ensemble 500 mb charts continues to be NW flow over eastern Canada and the northeast US, with a much subtler signal for modest SW flow nosing into the S Plains. Low-level moisture progs from the ECMWF suite continue below average all the way through the start of Memorial Day weekend, with neither it nor the GEFS showing any heightened overlapping CAPE-shear signal on the Plains. Medium range MJO forecasts suggest we'll need to take the long, painful circuit from phase 2 now to phases 8-1 before its contribution will be classically favorable, possibly by early June (assuming we make a full circuit without the MJO completely losing amplitude).




So, it's reasonable to expect flawed structure/hail setups like 5/8-5/9 to reign supreme through the next 10+ days, barring drastic changes. We'll have to hope one of them overperforms (think Nara Visa NM last year on 6/7, as an extreme example), which these flawed days have tended not to so far this spring. The burning question now, for locals and opportunistic travelers alike, is whether we'll finally transition into a more hospitable pattern supporting "real" tornado setups around Memorial Day (restoring the possibility of a good peak season) vs. waiting later into June. Cutting out the Gulf frontal intrusions would be a nice first step.

 

[John Farley]

I was a little surprised to see this yesterday and found it somewhat encouraging.

Climate Prediction Center - 8 to 14 Day Outlooks

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

 

[Warren Faidley]

To be honest, after chasing in the plains for 38 years, I have yet to see any model, climate outlook or forecast I trust beyond 7 days. Models that are generally respected, like the NCEP ensembles, have all been screwball beyond a week. We simply have not reached the point in forecasting science that allows you to make plans too far out — one way or another.