State of the Chase Season 2026

[JamesCaruso]

The only thing more infuriating than an unproductive chase trip is seeing things heat up *after* the chase trip - especially after bailing early on an unproductive trip.

I don’t really regret bailing and flying home on Memorial Day. It would have been a little ridiculous to stay out there all this week just to wait for this Saturday. And my range Saturday would be limited anyway, because I’d have to get my son to an airport on Sunday.

But like everyone else, I expected next week to be ridged out, and was thinking maybe I’d head back out again the weekend of 6/6 at the earliest. So I went ahead and made personal and professional commitments for the coming week of 6/1.

I’m not going to be happy if I end up missing a good week of chasing next week. But I’m also not going to regret that I committed to other things. After all, how practical is it to put life on hold for chasing, when the time set aside for it so often disappoints anyway?!? Just goes to show how frustrating and ridiculous this hobby is!

Now, if it turns out the ridge sets in the week of 6/8 *instead of* the week of 6/1, then I am *really* going to lose my $hit!!!

 

[Jesse Risley]

I don't trust models more than a week out for anything but a general, pretend glimpse of what might happen. We see so much variability. Granted, we have to make decisions like this and I get that long-range guidance including that from the CPS is the best we have to go off of. Once in awhile they just end up being a complete flop. I am invigorated by looking at today's 12z guidance and noticing more robust flow across the northern Plains at the end of the extended range. If we can get enough moisture return it'll likely be a go given that all other parameters come into alignment but it's a step in the right direction. Of course, who knows if it will come to be!

 

[Jason N]

Right on Jesse, trust is a tough thing to develop, but when you have to make important decisions out 10 to 30 days like I tend to have to do on the regular, trend lines and NMME's , climate analogues become your best friend. I can say that trend lines, and I mean one's that are generally very simplistic in nature (strictly heights or wave patterns for instance) and inserting the second and third order effects of those elements downstream and apply that to planning can be very useful. obviously model/ensemble skill out at these distances is less than desired but the trends can tell a good story, which is why I am so big into trend at distance. You will NEVER be able to accurately say much else beyond , troughing appears potentially more likely on this week.. which leads to X and Y assuming the standard pressure/temp geostrophic and stacking rules will apply if this pattern emerges, but the more I see it, the more confidence I have in at least a regional areas potential to ridge or trough lol, which comes with its own net effects.

 

[Jeff House]

I think this weekend May 30-31 are ok for Plains chasers or whoever is out there playing Wherever I May Roam (Metallica).
Since we're talking about uncertainty in the extended, it's the perfect time to post a Day 8-10 forecast! Possible Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, or Upper Midwest the following weekend. Heights are AN which could create cap challenges; then, a total mess when it finally fires.

The good news is Southwest flow and the Moisture will be there - especially for that part of the World. Even if some junk system hangs out in Texas, going into June that should not impede moisture return North. I'm not planning travel. Just spreading optimism.

ECMWF Ensemble and GEFS

 

[Jason N]

yep.. this is beginning to confirm the trends from 7-8days ago. totally agree the setup will not be ideal, but I think as we get closer some of this pattern could turn into sneek attacks (Warren's coin phrase) CO/WY western NE to the Dakotas , wherever sfc boundaries and moisture play out eventually and where best shear might end up, possibly displaced too far apart, but there's still time to have that narrowed down. I plan to be in the NE area from 19-30 anyway.. so we will see.

Nice Metallica ref!

 

[Boris Konon]

Through May 26, 106 tornadoes for the for the month confirmed. From May 27-30 looks like 10 more. Given how late reports and refinements occur during the 90 days WFOs have to submit final Storm Data to NCEI, high chance it will exceed the 1985-present May low record of 121.

I see two tornadoes occurred in OK on 5/27, so not a goose egg for the state this May!

 

[JamesCaruso]

Through May 26, 106 tornadoes for the for the month confirmed. From May 27-30 looks like 10 more. Given how late reports and refinements occur during the 90 days WFOs have to submit final Storm Data to NCEI, high chance it will exceed the 1985-present May low record of 121.

I see two tornadoes occurred in OK on 5/27, so not a goose egg for the state this May!

So it will be the second lowest - the season still sucks. I’m also pissed off that I came home on Monday, and missed Saturday’s action. Although I’m not sure it would have been worth sitting out there all week waiting for it.

Already made personal and professional commitments this week, but likely to head out next weekend. I’d rather stay home and enjoy the weekend with the family and be out there by Monday 6/8, unless the weekend looks to be active. Thinking I’ll head out by 6/8 at the latest; this isn’t a time to wait for a “sure thing” before heading out.

 

[Boris Konon]

So it will be the second lowest - the season still sucks. I’m also pissed off that I came home on Monday, and missed Saturday’s action. Although I’m not sure it would have been worth sitting out there all week waiting for it.

Already made personal and professional commitments this week, but likely to head out next weekend. I’d rather stay home and enjoy the weekend with the family and be out there by Monday 6/8, unless the weekend looks to be active. Thinking I’ll head out by 6/8 at the latest; this isn’t a time to wait for a “sure thing” before heading out.

The omega block seems like it never completely goes away. The ridge axis stays strong over the central CONUS w/ persistent troughs both coasts.
You just can't get deep quality moisture return flow into the Plains. Look at the GFS 500 fcst valid 06z Wed. Such a trough orientation like this on the E Coast is bad along w/ the low in the Gulf.

 

[Jeff House]

Storm Prediction Center 4-8 Day issued Tuesday seems to handle this coming weekend well. SPC charts are blank but their text explains some day-by-day possibilities.

Let's jump ahead to the June 11-13th which is out about 10+ days. After a brief pause, or even continued isolated activity, a little better pronounced southwest flow is possible across the central Plains, probably I-70 and north. Will be the season for NE/IA. Below is combined ensemble clusters from the GEFS and ECMWF. Latter contributes more bullish members. GEFS is a bit more blocky.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Tremendous uncertainty regarding the mid-late month period, one only has the see the "spaghetti" plot from the GEFS to illustrate this. These blocky patterns are often the hardest for the models to handle.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Tremendous uncertainty regarding the mid-late month period, one only has the see the "spaghetti" plot from the GEFS to illustrate this. These blocky patterns are often the hardest for the models to handle.

Also seems to be a lot of difference between the GFS/GEFS vs Euro/EPS for the next 10 days or so.

I’m planning to head to the Northern Plains this weekend. Once we get to 6/17, I’m pretty much done for the year (there’s a small possibility I can extend one additional week, but if so it won’t be without some family guilt for missing my twins’ birthday and Father’s Day…)

I kind of regret bailing out early on my first trip; the feared death ridge never materialized, and there would have been a few chase days in there last Saturday and this week.

As much as I love chasing, it can be hard to overcome the inertia of being back in my normal routine, having to endure air travel aggravation from the east coast, plus a likely long drive from DEN (see below) just to position for the first chase day. But at this point - the last chance, in what has so far been a disappointing season - the question is *not* whether there is enough evidence of a solid setup. Rather, the question is whether there is enough reason *not* to go. The variability in the models shows says there is not enough evidence of a solid setup. But this same variability also says there is not enough certainty to blow it off either. That’s why it’s important to ask the right question Sometimes the bar is high and I’m looking for reasons not to go, but this time the higher bar is deciding to give up until next year. We’ve all seen too many situations where what looks like nothing turns into something.

My main issue now is logistics, and when my first day of chasing will be. I can’t fly until Friday afternoon. My only direct flight options are to DEN, arriving Friday evening. That likely puts Saturday in MT / western ND out of range. I really want to avoid a connecting flight to Billings or Bismarck. Having to connect through Chicago or Dallas on a Friday evening at this time of year is just asking for problems. Also kind of ridiculous to fly from Philly and have to connect through DFW. Flying on Saturday cuts it too close; it’s always difficult to fly and chase on the same day (doesn’t leave much time for forecasting either). So I may have to forego chasing on Saturday anyway, in which case I’m not sure Sunday looks that great with the cold front, so maybe I’m better off enjoying part of the weekend at home and flying out on Sunday. Like I said, hard to overcome the inertia of being comfortable at home!

In 30 years, I’ve actually never chased in MT or ND, and never never been to either state on any other occasion, so that’s something that will make this trip interesting no matter what happens.

Curious others’ thoughts, if you’ve e had time to look at things more closely than I have for the next 7-10 days.

 

[Harlan U]

Curious others’ thoughts, if you’ve e had time to look at things more closely than I have for the next 7-10 days.

I can't offer much real advice as far as the forecast is concerned. There's way too much model divergence to say anything conclusive right now. What I can tell you is that it may be worth considering closer targets in WY/NE/CO especially if you're flying into DEN. In fact, DEN might be a pretty good place to be on Monday if the Euro is to be believed.

 

[Jeff House]

As for this weekend, it might be worth a shot for mesoscale targets. The southern stream trough will create a mess though. My focus is after Day 8 (as of Wednesday afternoon).

Still several days to see how later next week goes. Generally we get one more trough for north of I-70 or even I-80 in June, after it looked like summer was settling in. Could it be coming? Or just more false hope.

EPS and GEFS still diverge sharply. See how much better the EPS looks. That said, Matt is absolutely right. This kind of divergence crushes confidence. Once in a while the GEFS beats the EPS; so, one can't always just relax and say the Euro has it. Sometimes the American gets it.



Then here is the super clusters from both Ensembles combined. The better clusters are mostly EPS members. The blocky clusters are GEFS, and it is truly poor for the central Plains. Euro in contrast is a classic mid-June sequence for the Northern Plains (maybe central one day).

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Bet that's a gorgeous supercell southeast of Murdo, SD right now. Wish I could chase these subtle Northern Plains setups but I still have PTSD from my 2016 "chasecation" which was penciled in weeks in advance for what ended up being the week after Dodge City & Chapman; when I went out for a slight risk setup in the Dakotas since it was the only thing on the outlook all week and it turned out to be slop.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Well, my plans are set… Flying into Denver earlier on Friday, planning to get up to Casper (already booked rooms there for Friday night) and will try my first-ever chase in Montana on Saturday, and it’s looking like I’ll also get to chase in ND for the first time Sunday and again on Tuesday. @Harlan U thanks for mentioning CO for Monday, it made me stop to make sure I wasn’t traveling more than I needed to, but latest runs of both the Euro and GFS aren’t looking too enticing there now from what I can see. That could change of course, but seems there’s enough reasons to head north, even if it means missing something in CO for a day that’s out of range, and I’m excited just to chase in new regions for the first time in 30 years of chasing. Haven’t looked beyond the weekend, as once I’m already out there I prefer to take it day by day, but at least saw that SPC already has risk areas in ND on Days 4 and 6, with general commentary about Northern Plains activity for the remainder of the Day 4-8 period.