State of the Chase Season 2026

[Cameron L.]

Took a shot at the crap storms in the southern TX panhandle yesterday, managing to miss all the landspouts as well as the “dusty tornado” report north of LBB. It was a nice day out but an obvious disappointment relative to what we are out here for. I’d go home today if I wasn’t out here with my son. I can come back in June, but he can’t. I feel the need to give him whatever chance there is. But he doesn’t have the same level of obsession I do, and he won’t enjoy being out here just for more days like yesterday anymore than I would. Sure the time together is great, but we’d both like to preserve PTO and I don’t want to spend money on hotels and a rental car just so we can work remotely during the day and go out to dinner at night, or even to find alternative things to do; better to save the time and money for a “real” vacation some other time. I just wish he could tell his job he’s back on Tuesday but may take off again in June. But he’s only a year out of college and angling for a promotion, so he feels uncomfortable asking for so much flexibility.

As of now, staying in LBB one more night and tomorrow will reassess the week ahead, likely flying home Monday if it’s still as bleak as it now appears.

Sounds like you and I are in similar situations - my wife, Mom, and step-father go with me when I chase, and while I enjoy the chases I've had (yet to bag a tornado though), I always feel bad leaving empty handed. It's a lot of pressure when you're not just making decisions for yourself. I try to remind myself to believe my family when they say they've had a great time, and that these are all great memories we're creating together and will appreciate years later (but I'd really like to bag a tornado for them).

I'm starting to see chatter on socials about mid-June possibly picking up. From what I've seen on CFS Chiclets and MJO/BSISO charts (though I won't claim to know the inner workings of the MJO or BSISO), it sounds like mid-June is a good timeframe to aim for if you have to plan for time off far ahead (like I do). There will probably be mesoscale days in between but in terms of long-term planning that seems (currently) like the next timeframe to aim for. I just hope folks in the US don't mind a Canadian coming down to chase, I know things between our countries have been a little tense lately - but I'd love to get down there and connect with random chasers on the side of the road, that's always been one of my favorite parts of chasing.

All that said - here's to hoping that June in the northern plains has some activity, it's beautiful there and even half-decent storms make for amazing chases and photos.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Certain weather "influencers" have been cherry-picking the long range CFS STP plots to suggest early June will be "epic" blah blah blah. The opposite seems much more likely. Ensembles are consistent, the ridge is here to stay.

 

[JamesCaruso]

After my earlier post, I sat down to take a look at the week ahead. Here is my perspective, and since my decision-making is still in flux, I'd really appreciate others' perspectives and suggestions, as I am far from the best forecaster (or decision-maker, considering how often I second-guess myself, or regret past chasing-related decisions!):

- The only days that seem to have any potential at all (excluding NW flow days, which I think are a waste of time) are Tue 5/26 in southwest TX and Fri 5/29 in northeastern CO.
- I really don't enjoy chasing in the part of TX that might have opportunity on Tuesday - that area roughly bounded by Odessa, Fort Stockton, Abilene and San Angelo. Euro shows the flow even further south than GFS, possibly shifting the aforementioned target south of I-10. I don't know if anyone has experimented with StormNet by OpenSnow, but it shows a tornado risk just north of the Rio Grande, which supports the threat possibly being too far south anyway.
- Friday in northeastern CO has weak 500mb flow and weak low-level shear. But 0-3km shear is pretty good, moisture is adequate, and we all know magic can happen in CO; it's also a more enjoyable area to chase in. StormNet shows a tornado risk in the whole northeastern quadrant of the state. (And also a very, very slight risk on Thursday, although I can't quite see why...)
- Chasing both locations seems crazy as it is an 11-hour drive between them. Yeah we have a few days to make the trip, but it still sucks, especially since we both have to work (remotely) during the day and prefer not to use PTO just for repositioning (and I'm not sure I can spare the time from work anyway, do to an upcoming deadline, which I foolishly procrastinated on during these past few down days).
- I flew into KC. I don't yet have plane tickets home and prefer to fly direct (to Philadelphia), which I can only do from KC, Denver or Dallas. I still have to find out how much the penalty fee is for turning the rental vehicle in at a different location.
- My current thinking is to forget about Tuesday, and use Sunday/Monday to migrate up to Colorado. Base out of there and wait for Friday...
- There's still a question as to whether it's worth staying out here a whole week just for that, but we can always change our minds and fly out of Denver sooner if we want. In fact, we really don't even have to make a decision until Sunday or Monday, as we can still fly out of Denver on Monday and be back at our jobs as normal on Tuesday.

Thoughts? Am I correct focusing in on Tuesday and Friday? Are there any other possibilities? Would you also blow off Tuesday, or go for it? Would you go for both Tuesday and Friday? Would you find it worth sticking around just for Friday, or would you go home?

 

[Dan Robinson]

The redeeming thing about the upcoming pattern is that it looks rather cool, cloudy and rainy for a lot of the central US as those little ripples/cutoff lows meander around, as opposed to the blast furnace of a classic "death ridge". Maybe that will help with a little baroclinicity going into June.

 

[John Farley]

Regarding the questions James asked, I really am not very knowledgeable about long-range forecasts and models, in part because, except in the strongest setups and for broad patterns, I don't find them overly useful so don't pay much attention to them. Accuracy falls off fast after the first few days. What I can say, though, is that if you go for the Friday setup in Colorado, you could spend the down time in the mountains or in Colorado Springs or Denver, so there is lots to enjoy on the non-chase days. You never really run out of things to do in Colorado.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Heading home. One of the shortest chase seasons in history for me. Not buying long range data for any hope of a rebound this season. What is left will likely be dictated by strong capping. On to monsoon and hurricane season.

 

[Boris Konon]

Of note, so far this May, only 26 tornadoes have been confirmed, and w/ the pitiful pattern for the next week, not that many more should occur. The record for the least amount of tornadoes in May in the U.S. since 1985 is 121 set in 2012. So it appears we will break this record by far! Talk about bad peak season!

Here are the records for each month. Sure, one can pick any year for a start time, but I chose 1985 since second half of the 80s had a significant spike down for total tornadoes, not unlike 2012-2016, so I am trying to include up/down cycles long-term w/o compromising total count caveats.

* Lowest U.S. tornado counts by month (since 1985):

January 1986/2003 0 July 2012 37
February 2010 1 August 2014 33
March 2015 11 September 2009 8
April 1987 20 October 1987 1
May 2012 121 November 2009 3
June 1988 63 December 2003 1

So where is this good news in the MSM? This is a significant record. But doesn't fit the "end of days" wx narrative. They are focused on speculation/conjecture instead of *facts*, like this:
Massive northeast Montana dust storm raises fears of another Dust Bowl era

What I find interesting is 7 months had their least on record 2009-15. And this occurred w/ tornado detection and documentation being much better than decades prior. So again, good news for society as a whole, but ignored.

 

[Robert S. Thompson]

James, I think Tuesday looks decent in Texas, but not great. I agree the road network/terrain can be a problem, especially if you have to go south of I-10. But at this time that may be the best set-up for next week. The wind fields for the next few weeks are simply too weak and disorganized. I would be reluctant to bet on Colorado for Friday this far out.

 

[Bobby Little]

James everything i look at looks bad or worse. I gambled not chasing the last couple weeks for these coming weeks. What a huge mistake. This O block is killing me. My personal opinion is cut bait and wait later in June. That is what i have decided to do. I did get Kankakee so far and some small southern Michigan action.
I am good to go anytime except for a week in June where i will be watching daughters dog. i am POSITIVE that week will be stormy.
Guess what? If that is true... the friggen dog is going to learn storm chase, like it or not!

 

[Warren Faidley]

I feel for those on tours for the next couple of weeks. I would be shocked if mid-to-late June actually picks up. This seems to be an ever-increasing climatology question.

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

I feel for those on tours for the next couple of weeks. I would be shocked if mid-to-late June actually picks up. This seems to be an ever-increasing climatology question.

I was a guest on a tour last year during a period that looked exactly like that on the CFS plots. It was rough. We had 2 chase days out of 7 tour days and on one of them we had to resort to chasing in Alabama, as the plains had absolutely nothing for nearly an entire week.

I keep in touch with a lot of the people I’ve met on tours in previous years and a lot of them are preparing for this year’s tour in the next week or two. They’re posting on social media about how excited they are. I feel bad for them, especially if their tour is next week, which looks terrible on most guidance. After last year I know firsthand that sinking feeling of spending thousands only to chase 2 storms.

This was going to be the year I “graduated” from the tours and gave solo chasing a shot. Instead I chose to join my family on a trip to Ireland. I was still open to chasing later in the season if the pattern looked good, but it would have had to look pretty damn good for me to throw more money at another vacation. That’s just not going to happen at this point. Oh well. At least I’m saving lots of money.

 

[Jason N]

To Warrens point about Climatology. I always wondered what the net effects of mid phase teleconnection pattern changes do to seasons from La Nina to Neutral or Neutral to El Nino when combined with the normal phases of the AO and MJO. There must be something to that and maybe because this coming El Nino is going to be larger, and is in the process of changing now, that it's having some earlier influence on the synoptic patterns in a negative way already, which if memory serves, stronger El Nino's cool down tornado counts in the mid-west, and we are riding that into that wave faster or earlier than expected?

 

[JamesCaruso]

Thanks to all for sharing their thoughts and perspectives here and in DMs. I’ve decided that my son and I will head home. We drove from LBB to DFW on Sunday and will fly to PHL this afternoon.

I don’t want to chase in southwest TX tomorrow and end up south of I-10 looking at storms that will probably be crap anyway. When I was doing analysis on Saturday, I thought Friday 5/29 in Colorado might be good, but yesterday’s model runs no longer pull moisture into CO, and the weak flow was always an issue. Even if it was good, it’s not worth sitting around waiting for one day. I appreciate the recommendations on alternate activities, but we’d rather save the money and the PTO. We would just end up working remotely in the hotel room all day and going out to eat at night. That time together is special, but we can do that at home. In fact, that’s probably what we will do, because my wife and daughters are away visiting my in-laws, so we can continue doing some “guys’ nights out.” We can be more productive working, and be more comfortable, back at home in our normal routine, sitting out on the deck smoking cigars, etc. And I can’t wait to get behind my drum set again!

So excluding today, we were out 9 days and only had two real chase days - 5/17 and 5/18. We also got a tor-warned storm on 5/16, but that was a hybrid positioning/lazy chase day when we decided to forego either of the main targets. And we “chased” the garden-variety storms near LBB on Friday, managing to see none of the reported landspouts. I very much regret not chasing in Colorado last Thursday the 21st, especially since that was the last good day.

I’ve actually had worse trips, where I saw literally no tornados or even any tor-warned supercells. At least we got one tornado (St. Libory) for 19 seconds. And it was great to at least be part of the “alleged big day” on 5/18. The time with my son was awesome and I felt bad to end it earlier than I had to, but again if it’s not about chasing and it’s just hanging out at night after the workday, we can do that back home.

Despite my attempt at positivity above, I am really pissed about this. It just absolutely sucks to look forward to something all year, and put in prep and learning time, all for nothing, and now wait another whole year for another shot. It’s like training for an athletic competition and finding out the event is not being held. We are going on a family cruise in July; imagine if we had to wonder if the ship will actually be in port on departure day!?! Or if on the third day of the cruise, the captain announces that the rest of the cruise is cancelled and we’re heading back to port! Further imagine in that latter scenario, people say “at least you enjoyed two good days!” Because that’s what people back home are already saying to me about this chase trip!! That gets me even more ticked off!!!

If things do somehow heat up by the second week of June, I can come back out again if it seems worth it; but beginning 6/18 I pretty much have to be home for family stuff.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Yeah, it sucks. However it seems this lousy pattern was fairly well-anticipated. Saw a number of chasers saying as early as February that they weren't anticipating a great May based on the forecast ENSO progression and other teleconnections. No regrets about scheduling my tour in early April, although the best days ended up being just before, and just after that 4/3-12 window.

Some positives I can take out of 2026 are that tour (which was a lot of fun and very educational chasing with Trey Greenwood and Ethan Moriarty as our guides and I met some great people among the other guests as well), meeting and chasing with @Luke Penney a couple of times, and the tornado in Minnesota on 4/13 although in hindsight I really wish I'd gotten at least a couple of miles closer.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Luckily we have seen a few tornadoes already, Elk City, KS and Braman, OK so the pressure is off for the most part. We will almost certainly head out again in early June probably around the 6th. Ensembles have been very consistent in showing at least some flattening/eastward progression of the ridge by then. Then there is Canada, only have chased there twice, without much success. If the pattern does not cooperate there is always the sightseeing fallback, luckily storms are not the end all be all for us. Just bought a new lightning trigger so hope to make good use of that. It is a great help of course to be retired and chase/travel whenever the desire hits.