Overwelmed

[Justin McGinley]

Ok I am trying really hard to read the models and it seems like the more i read the more confused I get. Does anyone have any tips of how to make it any easier? I am really wanting to make my own forecast but now it seems like I will never be able to do it!

 

[Bob Hartig]

Congratulations on taking up the challenge of making your own forecasts, Justin. You'll get it, but it does take time. There's a lot to learn--a lot--so be patient with yourself. It's not going to come overnight.

First, do you understand the fundamental components of severe weather--i.e. moisture, instability, lift, and shear? It's the potential interplay of those four ingredients that you're trying to determine through the forecast models as well as actual surface obs and soundings. The maps at different levels--surface, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, and 300/250/200mb--all are just tools to help you see how moisture, instability, lift, and shear may line up in order to produce severe weather.

So before you tackle the models, or maybe while you're tackling them, inform yourself on those four basic ingredients. Then the stuff you see on the surface and upper air charts will start making better sense to you.

That being said, the term model forecasts covers some pretty broad territory, but I'm guessing that you're thinking specifically of basic surface and upper air maps. You're bound to get a variety of input on this topic because everyone here is an individual, and we've all got our personal stories about how we've learned--and continue to learn--to use forecasting tools. One practical approach, to my thinking, would be to start by learning how to use the surface map and then the 500mb map. I'm not saying the others aren't important--they're all important. It's just that your brain can only process so much information, and trying to learn everything at once may not be all that helpful for you. The surface and 500mb (mid-level) maps reveal a lot about what the atmosphere is doing or is likely to do. Get a feel for those, then start filling in above and below with the other maps.

There are a lot of resources available through this site, so do a bit of searching and you'll find that any questions you may have, have probably already been answered in a previous thread.

It really helps if you can have an experienced chaser or weather forecaster show you the ropes. There's nothing like being able to ask questions and get answers from a live person to help you get your arms around this stuff.

Again, be patient with yourself and learn at your own pace. Taking in bite-size pieces, one or two concepts at a time, will benefit you more than trying to swallow the whole pot roast in one gulp.

 

[Justin McGinley]

Hey Thank you bob. I know a little about how sever weather forms but want to know more like what do u need for a major tornado outbreak? Also wanting to know about how to forecast major winter weather events also.

 

[Jason Boggs]

My recommendation is just read as much as you can. You obviously have the internet, so you have the worlds largest wx library at your fingertips.

I recommend reading this site from start to finish. Yes, it will take you a long time, but it's packed with valuable information.

weatherprediction.com

 

[rdale]

Go through the educational section here and visit those links. Then visit them again.

I'm developing some interactive online training that I'll start to roll out after the holidays to help too.

 

[Zach Young]

You can also browse through some of the COMET modules on UCAR's website

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/

One nice thing about the modules is that many of them have quizzes at the end to test your understanding.

 

[John Vandehei]

As far as reading the models and understanding what's being depicted, the Unisys weather page has a pretty good page that describes what's being shown on the models. You can find it here. As far as making your own forecast, that will just come with time and experience. Experience is needed to learn the strengths, weaknesses and biases of the different models, as well as to how the output of the models translates into actual weather on the ground.

 

[Jim Parsons]

Check out some Tim Vasquez forecasting books...They are great learning tools.
http://www.weathergraphics.com/

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I agree with all of the above suggestions. Also, go back a few years in the forecast threads and look for the days with several pages worth of postings. Go back to like 2006 when the forecasts were really discussed on here. Just read through those and research through terms you have heard before. Get Tim's books and read over theweatherprediction site. Start thinking big (moisture, lift, instability, shear) and how to evaluate those things. Once you get comfortable with that, start looking more into the specifics of things. That is how I did it and I've gotten more successful every year.

 

[Doug Ott]

Hey Justin

I am still trying to read models and trying to figure out forcast maps myself. Forcasting is very indepth. Sometimes too indepth. When I wanted to learn more about chasing the first thing that I did was order Mike Hollingsheads "Storm Structure 101" dvd. It didn t emphasize alot on forcasting, but I was able to see what he was looking for in maps, soundings, forcasts, etc. In addition to that, it s a video that is easy to understand. Being new myself to forcasting I don t believe in getting into all the real scientific crap that involves calculators. This next year out there I would suggest getting a good grips on the basics of the maps. When I first took on chasing the four things I focused myself on was moisture, wind shear, capping, and triple points. I figured for myself the first time out, I was going to need a good understanding on what environments tornados form in opposed to making my own forcasts. For me all the other stuff was over my head and wouldn t understand it anyways. So, to learn the tornado ingedients and look for those on a map was a great start for me. As I learned about those things, there were other things that made more sense to me. Learning it all takes time and I tend to learn slower than others. So, for myself I just attack and learn a little more each winter. Getting out is also important as well. It s when your in the field where you take what you learn in the winter and put it too work. I will also admit I ve learned so much just from this forum. Reading peoples posts in the chase case scenerios has been so valuable to me. Keep up the chase cases they are very appreciated, and gets me excited for spring.

I chase alot in the spring (as much as my farming allows me too anyways), and I do alot of chasing by myself. We live pretty close to each other so, if you are still interested in tagging along with me on a chase or two into KS/OK/TX we could meet up and go find some tornados. I can t garuntee a high success rate with me LOL, but I see a lot of awesome weather. Either way I ll get in touch with you closer to spring, and see what your thoughts are for chasing. Thought I would throw that out there. Anyways, happy learning.

 

[rdale]

I'm developing some interactive online training that I'll start to roll out after the holidays to help too.

Now becoming available... See the marketplace.

 

[Justin McGinley]

Hey everyone thank you very munch for all the help. I will check in on everything that everyone has give me for.

 

[Dave Rennie]

I am in about the same boat as Justin, I believe. I know that moisture, instability, lift, and shear come into play in the development of severe/tornadic storms, but am a weather illiterate!

I purchased "Weather Forecasting: Rules, Techniques and Procedures" by George Elliott, but it seems to assume that the reader has forecasting experience and wants to improve his skills, so that was of little use.

I also purchased "Weather Map Handbook" by Tim Vasquez, but it also appears targeted at weather-savvy readers. All of the map examples in it are black and white, so with me not knowing what I was looking at, I wasn't able to gain much knowledge from this book either.

I'll check out the Unisys site, as someone suggested, but am open to any other ideas or suggestions. Thanks, everyone!

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Dave,

Check out Tim Vasquez's Severe Storms Forecasting book. The Weather Map handbook is great, but it just explains how to use the tools. But you must learn to understand what the tools are before stepping to the garage and reaching into the toolbox.

Yes, moisture, instability, lift, and shear are important. But it's understanding how these elements work together to create the magic moment that we all appreciate. Through time, observations, and hard work will you begin to understand what is happening in the sky.

Give Tim's Severe Weather Forecasting book a try. I think you'll be glad you did!

Bryan

 

[Dave Rennie]

Give Tim's Severe Weather Forecasting book a try. I think you'll be glad you did!

Well, Bryan, I guess I achieved a bit of overkill, because last night I went to Tim's website and ordered Storm Chasing Handbook. ($20 cheaper at Tim's site than on Amazon!) Then this morning I noticed that you had suggested Severe Weather Forecasting, so I went ahead and ordered it today!

I guess one thing in my defense is that the Storm Chasing Handbook is not listed under "Books", but is only mentioned within the text portion of Tim's main page.

In any case, I should be well equipped now! Thanks for the advice.