No Tornadoes Reported Anywhere Across US in March (so far)...you feelin' the SDS yet???

[Jeff Hawkins]

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/tornadoes-reported-us-march-29788387

The paucity of severe weather continues...for now. This will eventually change. Eventually.

 

[Caleb Grunzke]

I can't chase right now anyways so no nice setups is fine with me. However, it would be nice to see at least a little severe weather...

 

[Skip Talbot]

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/tornadoes-reported-us-march-29788387

The paucity of severe weather continues...for now. This will eventually change. Eventually.

I think it's a great thing actually. Because
1. the early/preseason setups are often just bringing death and destruction with unchaseable tornadoes to Dixie Alley.
2. The early season severe weather trend has little bearing on how the chase season will wind up overall.

 

[STexan]

I really don't like getting into the "climate change" aspect that drives so many topics today in the mainstream news, but I remember this news story from a month or so ago and thought I post it to help bring some things back into perspective. The models that are being used by some are simply flawed and I for one am getting tired of the constant "sky is falling" news stories from "journalists" talking to "scientists", referring to "best we can hope for models". This is not a criticism of the SPC or NOAA, this is directed to all the other "institutions" who are claiming to be the "last word" in the long-term Wx forecasting scene.

"Tornado season will also peak earlier, in March instead of May, the study says. The number of tornadoes in April will rise slightly, while May’s total twister count will stay the same."

From http://atlanta.cbslocal.com/2015/02/09/global-warming-tornadoes/

 

[rdale]

STex - you do realize that is a long-range outlook... Nobody ever expected it to mean every year would be that way. Calling Victor a "sky is falling" guy is quite the accusation, and probably not warranted based on his knowledge of the pattern changes coming.

 

[Randy Jennings]

I'm the stuckee to maintain a weather bug system and my employer, and the other day the Earth Networks folks sent a newsletter that had some interesting stats in it:

"When it comes to severe weather, 2015 is off to an unusually quiet start in the U.S. Through mid-March, only 28 tornadoes have been reported. This is well below the average of 173 for this time of year. In 2003, only 21 tornadoes were reported. The cold winter in the eastern U.S., combined with the ongoing Western drought, is responsible for the quiet start. This is due to the persistent jet stream pattern from January into early March. However, a quiet start to severe weather season does not mean that the season will continue this way. For example, in 2004, only nine tornadoes were reported in January and February – but a record 1,820 tornadoes were reported by the year’s end."

While I don't fully agree with their "responsible for the quite start" statement, the stats do give us some hope for the rest of the season.

 

[rdale]

Weren't there more than 21 in 2003? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2003_annual_summary.html

 

[Todd Hendrix]

Usually February and March are pretty active times here in Georgia but it's been quiet for a couple of years now.

 

[Jeff Hawkins]

Thanks for the replies so far everyone...Caleb, yeah I'm with you there...$$ saved for later when I've got my chasecation Skip...yeah I'm with you too on the lack of early season severe storms being a good thing in a way... STexan yes, as far as trying to tie it to 'climate change' I agree there's some politically driven manipulation of what's reported and how it's reported out there. "Just the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth" is more what I prefer. All sides of an argument please, and let me draw my own conclusions. Too bad most reporters can't be trusted to report this way anymore. Even on the weather. Randy, as far as contributing factors, I agree there's probably more variables contributing than just the jet stream and the Western drought. I'll leave it to the climate scientists to say what other factors there are...I would wonder what role the sun cycle has? I think there's been some discussion about that in the past. rdale...keep posting the stats...facts are good things Todd...as Skip pointed out, there's an up-side to the lack of severe weather. Just like the lack of hurricanes last year in the US. I hope it continues.

 

[Stan Rose]

maybe Tuesday will break the streak.

 

[Gerry Davis]

In my opinion the western drought has a great deal to do with the tornadic drought. It creates a ridge of high pressure, forcing the jet stream over the top of it. Seems to me you need more western trough, or at least more southern zonal jet stream pattern, to bring the energy and moisture needed into a system to create enough instability and spin. I could be wrong though.

 

[Stan Rose]

well. you're right about the ridge being the cause of the tornado drought, but I think your cause and effect reversed, Gerry--the ridge is causing the (increased) drought, although there may be some degree of feedback as well from those conditions. The main player is the warm water in the Pacific, and the various related teleconnections.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

<snip>The main player is the warm water in the Pacific, and the various related teleconnections.

Actually, we've been stuck in a La Nina pattern for several years. This results in a cooling of the central Pacific waters -- not a warming. El Nino, which is a warming of the central Pacific, favors more precipitation across the west. In particular, areas across southern California eastward into Texas.

 

[Chelsea Roach]

It's been nothing but rain here even when they say "Severe Weather",It just turns to heavy rain when normally we would be having some nice super cells here around this time.Which stinks because I can chase a lot more this year then I could last year.

 

[Stan Rose]

Actually, we've been stuck in a La Nina pattern for several years. This results in a cooling of the central Pacific waters -- not a warming. El Nino, which is a warming of the central Pacific, favors more precipitation across the west. In particular, areas across southern California eastward into Texas.

I was referring to the western equatorial Pacific, Patrick. Hence my reference to 'teleconnections' But evidently the recent El Nino isn't going to help the drought too much--too little, too late. And even when it was borderline El Nino earlier, the atmosphere was not acting like a typical El Nino. And of course 'climate change' is a possible actor.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

El Niño is a teleconnection. So just saying teleconnection didn't make it clear. Sorry.

 

[Stan Rose]

Sorry I wasn't clear. My only point was to make it clear that the ridge was causing the drought, not the reverse. I don't know for sure what is driving the long term pattern--I doubt anyone knows for sure.

 

[Jason Harris]

Well, based on reports in last few minutes, we've got Benton, AR & now OK too:
__

528 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN TULSA...EXTREME
EASTERN PAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CREEK
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 526 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR KEYSTONE STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

Also, if you count a waterspout:
http://wtop.com/science/2015/03/weather-service-tornado-likely-touched-down-in-arkansas/

 

[Mike Marz]

we are for sure not tornado-less in march anymore...

 

[Jeff Hawkins]

Well, based on reports in last few minutes, we've got Benton, AR & now OK too:
__

528 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN TULSA...EXTREME
EASTERN PAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CREEK
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 526 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR KEYSTONE STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

Also, if you count a waterspout:
http://wtop.com/science/2015/03/weather-service-tornado-likely-touched-down-in-arkansas/

I see "eventually" has occurred. At least 1 dead, 2 injured, 30,000 without power. Not a good way to start. http://www.kake.com/home/headlines/Tornado-touches-down-near-Oklahoma-City-297596281.html

 

[Jason Harris]

Wish every mobile home park had a shelter on site to go to.

 

[V. Gensini]

http://www.gensiniwx.com/2015/03/a-quiet-year-for-severe-weatherso-far.html

 

[V. Gensini]

STexan / Jeff H: I can promise you the article you reference is in no way politically driven. $0 of research money was used during any phase of the project referenced. I was not on a RA during the creation or analysis of the data described in the initial referenced article on climate change and severe weather. I have little/no skin in the game. I am simply reporting what I found from my high-resolution downscaled simulations.